For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ll74]

Quoted for conversation continuity.

Besides difficulty predicting strategy and moves, a couple of things at least. The west was probably seeing what would happen after the disastrous vehicle march to Kyiv with fingers crossed. The west was also threading a needle in how much support to provide without spreading the scope of the war and staring WW3. Of course, it can be argued how much and how soon.

Thank you

 

[icanhelp1]

Quoted for conversation continuity.

Besides difficulty predicting strategy and moves, a couple of things at least. The west was probably seeing what would happen after the disastrous vehicle march to Kyiv with fingers crossed. The west was also threading a needle in how much support to provide without spreading the scope of the war and staring WW3. Of course, it can be argued how much and how soon.

I don’t disagree with that premise. IMHO as the Russians were building up on the Ukrainian border we should have matched. Just my opinion. Lessons learned from Crimea and the debacle in Afghanistan, Putin played on western weakness. Right now, Biden should strongly encourage peace negotiations. I stopped paying attention after Lupus D existed lit. His narratives were very precise and informative after that nothing really interested me except overspending and little accountability.

 

[jomar]

I don’t disagree with that premise. IMHO as the Russians were building up on the Ukrainian border we should have matched.
Just my opinion.

I’m sure they were trying to figure out a response. I’m assuming you’re talking about putting assets in place so they could be more quickly moved into Ukraine when needed. Fair enough on opinions.

Lessons learned from Crimea and the debacle in Afghanistan, Putin played on western weakness.

I’m not so sure it was western weakness as measured caution. But maybe he counted on that because he wasn’t invading a NATO nation.

Right now, Biden should strongly encourage peace negotiations.

I don’t disagree.

I stopped paying attention after Lupus D existed lit.
His narratives were very precise and informative after that nothing really interested me except overspending and little accountability.

Yeah, where’d he go? He had some interesting things to say on the subject.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Here's an economic and industrial hit out the ballpark. Think about the economic and industrial ramifications of this one.

Ukrainian Drones destroyed two electrical substations in the Belgorod region. Rhe Stary Oskol substation and the Metallurgicheskaya substation, one of the largest in Europe. The attack resulted in the complete de-energization of OEMK, Russia's only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise. Sub-stations, you say? Big deal, you say? Wait one.

OEMK is renowned for its advanced technology, including direct reduction of iron and electric furnace melting, which produces high-quality, impurity-free metal. OEMK plays a vital role in Russia's military-industrial complex, producing high-quality steel for various industries, including automotive and mechanical engineering. Its products are used by key Russian enterprises such as Gaz, UAZ, Kamaz, EPK, SKF, and AVTONORMAL, which manufacture automotive sheet steel, armor sheets, and components for military equipment. The de-energization caused all electric arc furnaces to stop, and the molten metal hardened inside. Restarting the plant will require extensive cleaning and replacement of arc elements, potentially taking several months. Some workers believe new furnaces might be needed, and since the plant was built using German technology, German expertise may be required to resume operations. Sanctions. Cough cough. Ain't happening, not from Germany anyhow.

No protection against hits like this. Russia just doesn't have the air defences to guard every critical substation and every industrial complex against drone attacks.

 

[ChloeTzang]

NATO countries have announced the donation of 5 more air defense systems to Ukraine.The package includes additional #Patriot and #SAMP-T systems, and components for their operation. We are grateful to our allies from the USA, Germany, Romania, the Netherlands, and Italy.Also, in the coming months, the US and its allies will provide dozens of tactical air defense systems: NASAMS, HAWK, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard. Special thanks to Canada, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom, and other countries for providing these systems and interceptors.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Chobham]

NATO countries have announced the donation of 5 more air defense systems to Ukraine.The package includes additional #Patriot and #SAMP-T systems, and components for their operation. We are grateful to our allies from the USA, Germany, Romania, the Netherlands, and Italy.Also, in the coming months, the US and its allies will provide dozens of tactical air defense systems: NASAMS, HAWK, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard. Special thanks to Canada, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom, and other countries for providing these systems and interceptors.

View attachment 2363966

Damn, the Hawk system is still around?

 

[ChloeTzang]

Damn, the Hawk system is still around?

Wow, I didn't realize they'd been around that long. 65 year old system and still doing what it was designed to do and taking out Russian targets. And yes, still around, and quite a few of them too. Everyone is offloading all their old equipment onto Ukraine I guess. Cheaper than disposal. Not sure where this latest batch is coming from. I knew Spain donated a few systems earlier, and Sweden had contributed - they apparently had some too. Reading the news release, this must be from Spain.

 

[Chobham]

Wow, I didn't realize they'd been around that long. 65 year old system and still doing what it was designed to do and taking out Russian targets. And yes, still around, and quite a few of them too. Everyone is offloading all their old equipment onto Ukraine I guess. Cheaper than disposal. Not sure where this latest batch is coming from. I knew Spain donated a few systems earlier, and Sweden had contributed - they apparently had some too. Reading the news release, this must be from Spain.

Falls into the category of, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

 

[ChloeTzang]

There is growing evidence that Biden’s playing Jekyll and Hyde regarding messaging vs actions in Ukraine.

US (in)actions in Ukraine are undeniable. The Biden administration has potentially dissuaded an FFL, delayed F-16 arrival, restricted F-16 training, limited ATACM strikes on Russian territory and more. “As a defense contractor facilitating the resourcing of Ukraine, it is clear the US government is micromanaging the war, leveraging it through logistics.” All of this adds up to a precarious outcome for President Biden. At some point, Russia’s allegations of US involvement in the war will be undeniable. Controlling F-16s (arrival, crewing, operations), ATACMs employment and other directives leaves undeniable US fingerprints on managing (and thus involvement in) the war. In effect, Biden’s grip on the 5,000-mile screwdriver into the Ukraine war will expose his fingerprints on the handle. To the rest of the world, this gives Putin’s accusations of US involvement some credibility. While much of the information campaign out of Moscow is disingenuously false, it is Biden himself who’s ironically validating (to a degree) US participation.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/35559

 

[Rightguide]

There is growing evidence that Biden’s playing Jekyll and Hyde regarding messaging vs actions in Ukraine.

US (in)actions in Ukraine are undeniable. The Biden administration has potentially dissuaded an FFL, delayed F-16 arrival, restricted F-16 training, limited ATACM strikes on Russian territory and more. “As a defense contractor facilitating the resourcing of Ukraine, it is clear the US government is micromanaging the war, leveraging it through logistics.” All of this adds up to a precarious outcome for President Biden. At some point, Russia’s allegations of US involvement in the war will be undeniable. Controlling F-16s (arrival, crewing, operations), ATACMs employment and other directives leaves undeniable US fingerprints on managing (and thus involvement in) the war. In effect, Biden’s grip on the 5,000-mile screwdriver into the Ukraine war will expose his fingerprints on the handle. To the rest of the world, this gives Putin’s accusations of US involvement some credibility. While much of the information campaign out of Moscow is disingenuously false, it is Biden himself who’s ironically validating (to a degree) US participation.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/35559

Go here and start at about the 14-minute mark to hear an expert and detailed analysis about why the present F-16 timeline in Ukraine is unrealistic and why the success of the program is doubtful operationally:

And I might add as far as the future goes the President is almost at the extreme limit of his Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) under 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act on US military inventory stocks.

 

[Chobham]

There is growing evidence that Biden’s playing Jekyll and Hyde regarding messaging vs actions in Ukraine.

US (in)actions in Ukraine are undeniable. The Biden administration has potentially dissuaded an FFL, delayed F-16 arrival, restricted F-16 training, limited ATACM strikes on Russian territory and more. “As a defense contractor facilitating the resourcing of Ukraine, it is clear the US government is micromanaging the war, leveraging it through logistics.” All of this adds up to a precarious outcome for President Biden. At some point, Russia’s allegations of US involvement in the war will be undeniable. Controlling F-16s (arrival, crewing, operations), ATACMs employment and other directives leaves undeniable US fingerprints on managing (and thus involvement in) the war. In effect, Biden’s grip on the 5,000-mile screwdriver into the Ukraine war will expose his fingerprints on the handle. To the rest of the world, this gives Putin’s accusations of US involvement some credibility. While much of the information campaign out of Moscow is disingenuously false, it is Biden himself who’s ironically validating (to a degree) US participation.

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/35559

I don't think there's ever been any doubt re. the US and NATO's involvement. At what point that involvement crosses a line is anybody's guess at this time.

There are persistent rumors of Putin putting out feelers for a cease fire right along with persistent rumors of the Biden admin yelling, "Nyet!!!" Are we planning on supporting this war to the very last Ukrainian? And that is what it really would come down to. Given the static front and improbability of either side making a significant breakthrough it becomes a war of attrition and that is a war the Ukrainians can't win. And while current conditions dictate that Ukraine will ultimately lose, Russia's military back will be broken in that win.

It's unlikely that NATO would take advantage of Russia's weakened state, but the same cannot be said re. the Chinese and their salivating over the resources in Eastern Siberia and that is guaranteed to lead to a nuclear exchange.

Returning to the peace feeler's situation. I notice that un-named, highly placed sources, in the intelligence community are trying to tie Trump to the Russians............again. "The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming!!!!" They must think they have any credibility left. Regardless, I won't discount the notion that there is some truth to the rumor in that in all probability Trump would entertain negotiations. Should that come to pass I doubt that Putin would achieve the terms he'd like.

 

[ll74]

I don't think there's ever been any doubt re. the US and NATO's involvement. At what point that involvement crosses a line is anybody's guess at this time.

There are persistent rumors of Putin putting out feelers for a cease fire right along with persistent rumors of the Biden admin yelling, "Nyet!!!" Are we planning on supporting this war to the very last Ukrainian? And that is what it really would come down to. Given the static front and improbability of either side making a significant breakthrough it becomes a war of attrition and that is a war the Ukrainians can't win. And while current conditions dictate that Ukraine will ultimately lose, Russia's military back will be broken in that win.

It's unlikely that NATO would take advantage of Russia's weakened state, but the same cannot be said re. the Chinese and their salivating over the resources in Eastern Siberia and that is guaranteed to lead to a nuclear exchange.

Returning to the peace feeler's situation. I notice that un-named, highly placed sources, in the intelligence community are trying to tie Trump to the Russians............again. "The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming!!!!" They must think they have any credibility left. Regardless, I won't discount the notion that there is some truth to the rumor in that in all probability Trump would entertain negotiations. Should that come to pass I doubt that Putin would achieve the terms he'd like.

Why does Putin deserve any terms?

Biden has never said no the cease fire discussions. He has said that Putin's starting negotiations needed more work, as has every person outside of Russia.

 

[Chobham]

Why does Putin deserve any terms?

Biden has never said no the cease fire discussions. He has said that Putin's starting negotiations needed more work, as has every person outside of Russia.

So you want to fight to the very last Ukrainian too huh?

 

[ll74]

So you want to fight to the very last Ukrainian too huh?

Russia invaded Ukraine on false pretense. They can stop their invasion at any time. If they want more, it's up to Ukraine to decide whether the terms are acceptable. At this point, I can't see why Ukraine would surrender anything without guarantees that Russia won't do so again. They have every right to defend themselves as long as they want to.

I want the Ukranian people to decide for themselves.

 

[ChloeTzang]

So you want to fight to the very last Ukrainian too huh?

I'd like Ukraine get ALL the weapons they need to defeat Russia, and training to use them effectively. It's going to take a while, and the last article I read on the subject was adamant that the Russian to Ukraine KIA ratio had worsened considerably for the Russians due in large part to the reduced training the mobiks have been getting, and their fall off in artillery support when combined with mass infantry attacks. I suspect 2025 is when we will see Ukraine start making significant gains, and 2026 will be when Russia folds.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

Apparently they're trying.....this would be so much fun to see......

 

[Chobham]

I'd like Ukraine get ALL the weapons they need to defeat Russia, and training to use them effectively. It's going to take a while, and the last article I read on the subject was adamant that the Russian to Ukraine KIA ratio had worsened considerably for the Russians due in large part to the reduced training the mobiks have been getting, and their fall off in artillery support when combined with mass infantry attacks. I suspect 2025 is when we will see Ukraine start making significant gains, and 2026 will be when Russia folds.....

I would like to share your optimism............but I don't. Without significant, and effective, air support it's late WWI trench warfare which means a war of attrition and that's a war Ukraine can't win.

 

[ll74]

I would like to share your optimism............but I don't. Without significant, and effective, air support it's late WWI trench warfare which means a war of attrition and that's a war Ukraine can't win.

What is a win for Ukraine?

What is a win for Russia?

 

[jomar]

Apparently they're trying.....this would be so much fun to see......

View attachment 2364115

Boo Hoo

 

[Chobham]

What is a win for Ukraine?

What is a win for Russia?

There is no 'winner' anymore.

 

[ll74]

There is no 'winner' anymore.

There was never a possibility of winning when Russia invaded without an objective.

You saying "Ukraine can't win" is a useless comment.

 

[Chobham]

There was never a possibility of winning when Russia invaded without an objective.

You saying "Ukraine can't win" is a useless comment.

Actually it's spot on. Should they by some miracle expel Russia from all their boundaries, including the Crimea, what have they won?

The cream of their youth is dead or maimed and the nation is in ruins. That my friend is a Pyrrhic victory.

 

[ll74]

Actually it's spot on. Should they by some miracle expel Russia from all their boundaries, including the Crimea, what have they won?

If your statement is that no one wins, then saying Ukraine can't win is useless because there was never a chance for anyone to win. Literally nothing can be done.

The cream of their youth is dead or maimed and the nation is in ruins. That my friend is a Pyrrhic victory.

Yes, because Russia invaded their country and killed them. Ukraine defending itself against invasion resulted in Ukranians dying.

They never wanted to win. They wanted Russia to lose.

 

[Chobham]

You're repeating the obvious. Yes, the Russians are the bad guys in this drama................and so the fuck what????

I'm pretty sure that we aren't going to be seeing the Ukrainians driving Leopard II tanks into Red Square any time soon................or ever.

At what point does your moral outrage spill over and demand direct NATO involvement?