Is China's economy in trouble or not?

[Rebel5soul]

 

[Rebel5soul]

 

[Hel_Books]

China truly is uncharted political and economic territory!

It's trying to run a modern economy while at the same time clamping down hard on the circulation of information, which is what modern economies are built on.

It's an enormous old-fashioned Soviet style empire trying to hold together, around a core of ethnic Han, a territory including many unhappy minorities: Tibetans, Uighurs, Mongols, Manchus, etc. while trying to showcase itself as an example of a system that they want others to admire, a model for the future.

It's developing from a third-world to a first-world society, while at the same time its population is decreasing (and the WORKING-AGE population has been decreasing for at least a decade) and people (the youngest and most talented) are looking to emigrate, especially after watching what happened to Hong Kong.

It tries to project an image of a peaceful giant among nations, while harassing neighbours from the Himalayas to the South China sea and forever talking of a war of conquest against Taiwan . . . maybe . . . maybe not . . . maybe this week . . . maybe not for many years. . . but still, don't rule it out!

It's a "People's Republic" but the people have less and less say as President XI extends his reach.

What will all this mean for the economy? The Nazis did run a cracking good economy for a while, but . . .

 

[Politruk]

It's a "People's Republic" but the people have less and less say as President XI extends his reach.

What happens after Xi, I wonder?

When Stalin died, he turned out to be the last dictator of the USSR -- leadership became more collegial.

 

[gxnn]

I don't understand. Will China, or will it not, remain under the rule of the organization called the Chinese Communist Party or Communist Party of China? An organization which, despite changes in name and in ideology, is institutionally continuous with Mao's Party.

As you know, China's fudal social system which lasts from 220BC to 1912AD, with so many rulers of political factions or royal families and names of dynasty changing hands, has the same or very similar nature, so is the case of the present time China. Anyone who tries to establish a new system will find it much more difficult than the ruling system of CPC which has developed for so many years, with mature management practice. A rose by any other name would smell as sweet‌.You can deny the fact but when you carry out the concrete work you have to do so.

A criminal syndicate is a criminal syndicate no matter what name it flies under. And no, the CCP or CPC will not survive. The question, and concern, is what will replace it?

Whether one or an organization is criminal depends on the law you are making reference to. And laws are, like men's dicks, easily changable, especially when you are rich and powerful. Donald Trump is one criminal too after the Jan 6 incident but he is the president-elect of the US, and he is the choice of the majority of the people. Then you can also infer that the GOP is a criminal party too with a criminal as the head. And what will replace GOP? Democrat or a third party?

 

[Politruk]

As you know, China's fudal social system which lasts from 220BC to 1912AD, with so many rulers of political factions or royal families and names of dynasty changing hands, has the same or very similar nature, so is the case of the present time China. Anyone who tries to establish a new system will find it much more difficult than the ruling system of CPC which has developed for so many years, with mature management practice. A rose by any other name would smell as sweet‌.You can deny the fact but when you carry out the concrete work you have to do so.

That sheds no light on the question: Will the CCP remain in power or not?

 

[LeaHaven]

China's economy has been in trouble for some time now.

Since 2015, the MSCI has risen 725%. In the last two years alone, it has risen 55%.
Since 2015, the S&P has risen 255%. In the last two years, the S&P has risen 30%.
That's just the facts.

 

[Rebel5soul]

Since 2015, the MSCI has risen 725%. In the last two years alone, it has risen 55%.
Since 2015, the S&P has risen 255%. In the last two years, the S&P has risen 30%.
That's just the facts.

Past earnings are not indicators of future performance. Right?

Serious analyst are saying that real GDP is in the 1.5% region, not the figures the Party is putting out.

Further, how many Chinese firms are in jeopardy of being delisted for not complying with accounting rules?

 

[LeaHaven]

Past earnings are not indicators of future performance. Right?

Serious analyst are saying that real GDP is in the 1.5% region, not the figures the Party is putting out.

Further, how many Chinese firms are in jeopardy of being delisted for not complying with accounting rules?

All that is opinion and more importantly, it's irrelevant. The MSCI is up 725% since 2015, because investors view China as the greater growth opportunity than they do the US. That's a fact. You can view the charts on any investing website.

If you want to hate China, that's your business, and I am not trying to change your mind. All I am saying is that the idea that China's economy is "in trouble," or on the brink of collapse is just plain stupid. This is why I have a good paying job. Most people cannot separate their emotions from their investments, so if they are smart (eventually), they consult with a financial advisor. If they are not smart, then they are dependent on luck. Usually that does not play out too well.

All this aside, I hope you can find some peace and happiness. You and others in this thread are angry about stuff that doesn't even exist. People are making money off your anger, and once they hook you, it is unlikely you will ever break free. It is a playbook that has been around forever.

 

[gxnn]

That sheds no light on the question: Will the CCP remain in power or not?

The answer has been given in my original post. If you keep on asking about the name, it is hard to say. If you care more about the nature, it will remain so because names can be changed. If you ask for what is the real thinking of a Chinese person, I will say yes, CPC or CCP will remain in power, no other power is now strong enough to be its rival. The recent changes in Syria where rebels expeled the ruling dicator but received the heaviest fatal destruction from Israel have made the eyes of many Chinese people clearer.

 

[Politruk]

The recent changes in Syria where rebels expeled the ruling dicator but received the heaviest fatal destruction from Israel have made the eyes of many Chinese people clearer.

That has no relevance to China whatsoever.

 

[Rebel5soul]

Whether one or an organization is criminal depends on the law you are making reference to. And laws are, like men's dicks, easily changable, especially when you are rich and powerful. Donald Trump is one criminal too after the Jan 6 incident but he is the president-elect of the US, and he is the choice of the majority of the people. Then you can also infer that the GOP is a criminal party too with a criminal as the head. And what will replace GOP? Democrat or a third party?

First of all the GOP isn't our government. The government will still be there long after Trump is gone, or even the GOP.

Your economy and foreign policies are spiraling out of control.

 

[Politruk]

Any instability in China would be . . . world-shaking.

 

[gxnn]

That has no relevance to China whatsoever.

In China, there is a saying "Don't start sinking a well when you are thirsty", and actually there are other variety of the same existing in the culture meaning one should make preparation for the unseen future. Syria is far from China, but its lesson can be learned. Before the rule of CPC, China had been a nation humiliated and exploited and taken advantage on by western powers for too long. No political party is perfect. There are always some of the people of the country who are difficult to please. If there was no CPC, who would be able to do the ruling better without the groundwork done by it and the legacy left? There is none. If the cost was the same or even more, why would the people make the trouble to make a change? You drive away the wolf at the front door, but what is the point when you usher in a tiger from the back door? That is why I say we learn the lesson from the recent Syria.

First of all the GOP isn't our government. The government will still be there long after Trump is gone, or even the GOP.

Your economy and foreign policies are spiraling out of control.

Thanks for the enlightenment. We are used to the integration of political party and the government. About the economy and foreign policies, we do not see any sign that they are out of control, though we should not deny there are problems or big problems in this regard.

 

[Rebel5soul]

Is China fudging their population numbers?

I have not checked her math in detail but she makes a powerful case that fits the observable facts.

 

[Rebel5soul]

 

[Politruk]

Serious analyst are saying that real GDP is in the 1.5% region, not the figures the Party is putting out.

Who are these serious analysts?

 

[Politruk]

Before the rule of CPC, China had been a nation humiliated and exploited and taken advantage on by western powers for too long

To the contrary, not for long enough. If there were still extraterritorial foreign enclaves in the major cities, that might stop the Chinese from getting above themselves and thinking they are part of the civilized world.

 

[gxnn]

To the contrary, not for long enough. If there were still extraterritorial foreign enclaves in the major cities, that might stop the Chinese from getting above themselves and thinking they are part of the civilized world.

What you said makes much sense.
CPC looks like a product of Marxism and Leninism, introduced to China one hundred years ago from Europe.
But the leader Mao did not live in any foreign country like his comrades Deng Xiaoping, Zhu De, Zhou Enlai who worked and studied in France for quite some time. He read too much about the traditional philosophy of China represented by Confucius and others. In his leadership of the Red Army (the predecessor of People's Liberation Army), all the winning tactics he applied in the real battles derived from the ancient military books of China, and in the meantime, the military advisor from the USSR gave the very bad instruction to CPC that nearly had the all Red Army the rebel force annihilated by the then government force. That is the difference. As a Marxist or Bolshevik, he couldn't quote any great remarks of the leaders of that proletariat faith, but he knew very well the words of all Chinese sages and wrote very good poems that no other politicians in his time or in later generations are able to write.

 

[Politruk]

What you said makes much sense.
CPC looks like a product of Marxism and Leninism, introduced to China one hundred years ago from Europe.
But the leader Mao did not live in any foreign country like his comrades Deng Xiaoping, Zhu De, Zhou Enlai who worked and studied in France for quite some time. He read too much about the traditional philosophy of China represented by Confucius and others. In his leadership of the Red Army (the predecessor of People's Liberation Army), all the winning tactics he applied in the real battles derived from the ancient military books of China, and in the meantime, the military advisor from the USSR gave the very bad instruction to CPC that nearly had the all Red Army the rebel force annihilated by the then government force. That is the difference. As a Marxist or Bolshevik, he couldn't quote any great remarks of the leaders of that proletariat faith, but he knew very well the words of all Chinese sages and wrote very good poems that no other politicians in his time or in later generations are able to write.

You can't run a country on poetry. And Mao always was tragically incompetent at running a country.

 

[UltraChad]

And Mao always was tragically incompetent at running a country.

Leftoids have a strong historical record of that.

In fact you guys are so fucking terrible at running a country "REAL socialism has never been tried!!" is an actual thing socialist try to use to cover their perfect record of total failure.

 

[gxnn]

You can't run a country on poetry. And Mao always was tragically incompetent at running a country.

You are right.
He once said the whole party that we must know how to break an old world and we also must know how to make a new world. Yet he failed to fulfil this goal because he is a destroyer not a constructor.
During his rule, the yield of farmland was overblown to match the great achievement of the man-made satellite in aerospace sector; teachers of all schools were made the lowest class in the society, a great reverse of the social order since confucius time; curios and ancient temples along with the religious clergy were destroyed; people of different understanding of the same Mao thoughts engaged in armed conflicts with each other, etc.
Deng is much better than him in building and developing a country because when he was a teenager he worked and studied in Paris and saw the real world himself. Mao left China once only for his visit to Moscow, where he felt the pressure from Stalin, and headed home very soon.

 

[Politruk]

Deng is much better than him in building and developing a country because when he was a teenager he worked and studied in Paris and saw the real world himself. Mao left China once only for his visit to Moscow, where he felt the pressure from Stalin, and headed home very soon.

And how does Xi compare?

Is he even a Marxist, really?

 

[Rebel5soul]

 

[Politruk]

CPC looks like a product of Marxism and Leninism, introduced to China one hundred years ago from Europe.

But that form of Marxism only allowed a revolutionary role to the industrial proletariat. Mao changed it by making a revolutionary class of agrarian peasants -- a class Marx always dismissed as irrelevant.

Is that still CPC doctrine?