The Economy

[lessOHmo]

Implosion

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826268537171886316

 

[lessOHmo]

Harris Recession

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826278511004315806

 

[Rightguide]

US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported​

Labor Department releases key payroll data​

By Megan Henney FOXBus

U.S. job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than previously believed, according to new data published Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in the year through March by 818,000.

The agency's annual benchmark revision is mostly derived from state unemployment tax records that employers are required to file. The figure released Wednesday is preliminary and may be updated when the government releases the final figure in February 2025.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-created-818000-fewer-jobs-than-previously-reported

That didn't stop Joe from lying about the amount of jobs he created at the convention.

 

[Lazaran]

US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported​

Labor Department releases key payroll data​

By Megan Henney FOXBus

U.S. job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than previously believed, according to new data published Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in the year through March by 818,000.

The agency's annual benchmark revision is mostly derived from state unemployment tax records that employers are required to file. The figure released Wednesday is preliminary and may be updated when the government releases the final figure in February 2025.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-created-818000-fewer-jobs-than-previously-reported

That didn't stop Joe from lying about the amount of jobs he created at the convention.

So 15 MILLION TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND JOBS instead of 16 million.



Also:

If the jobs numbers HAD been interpreted more accurately, the Fed would probably have lowered interest rates by now, which would have helped President Biden and Democrats.



"Right"guide

 

[MajorRewrite]

US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported​

Labor Department releases key payroll data​

By Megan Henney FOXBus

U.S. job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than previously believed, according to new data published Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in the year through March by 818,000.

The agency's annual benchmark revision is mostly derived from state unemployment tax records that employers are required to file. The figure released Wednesday is preliminary and may be updated when the government releases the final figure in February 2025.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-created-818000-fewer-jobs-than-previously-reported

That didn't stop Joe from lying about the amount of jobs he created at the convention.

Here’s real reporting on the adjustment:

The report moves down the monthly job additions seen in the US economy over the time period to 174,000 from 242,000.

"Despite this big downward revision, that's still a very healthy growth rate in terms of the monthly jobs added to the economy," Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights president, told Yahoo Finance.

"The realization that the economy created fewer jobs than initially estimated [does not] change the broader trends in GDP growth, stock market and wealth gains, and consumption," RBC Capital Markets US economist Michael Reid wrote in a note to clients on Aug. 16.

US Employment Preliminary

I’m sure you’re upset that the US economy is strong.

 

[ll74]

Here’s real reporting on the adjustment:





US Employment Preliminary

I’m sure you’re upset that the US economy is strong.

Sorry to tell you but this is just spin

"Despite this big downward revision, that's still a very healthy growth rate in terms of the monthly jobs added to the economy," Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights president, told Yahoo Finance.

It isn't "the real story" when people work to explain bad news to you

 

[MajorRewrite]

Sorry to tell you but this is just spin

It isn't "the real story" when people work to explain bad news to you

Are you pretending the facts weren’t in the paragraph you conveniently didn’t copy?

“The report moves down the monthly job additions seen in the US economy over the time period to 174,000 from 242,000.”

The economy added 174,000 jobs per month. That’s the real story.

The finance expert put that in context, which is his job.

 

[ll74]

Are you pretending the facts weren’t in the paragraph you conveniently didn’t copy?

Those weren't facts. It was comfy words meant to smooth over the numbers.

“The report moves down the monthly job additions seen in the US economy over the time period to 174,000 from 242,000.”

The economy added 174,000 jobs per month. That’s the real story.

No, the real story is that the original estimation was higher and they misrepresented them and have to provide a correction.

That you are attempting to make this a positive thing is absurd and ridiculous.

The finance expert put that in context, which is his job.

The context is that they reported the original count incorrectly and now are offering the lower, correct number.

The spin is that this is still a good thing.

It's like the spin on inflation - prices are still going up, just at a slower, more preferred rate....but nobody has more money to spend.

 

[ll74]

Listen, I don't have an issue with you pointing out that the economy is strong in terms of GDP and other measures, but the rest of this is just showing that you're not being serious about the entire picture.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Those weren't facts. It was comfy words meant to smooth over the numbers.


No, the real story is that the original estimation was higher and they misrepresented them and have to provide a correction.

That you are attempting to make this a positive thing is absurd and ridiculous.


The context is that they reported the original count incorrectly and now are offering the lower, correct number.

The spin is that this is still a good thing.

It's like the spin on inflation - prices are still going up, just at a slower, more preferred rate....but nobody has more money to spend.

You can pretend the economy didn’t add 174,000 jobs per month if you want. That’s okay. Not everyone likes facts.

The fact is the estimates (yes, they’re still estimates, finalized numbers don’t come out until next year) were adjusted downward, but as the financial expert explained, the revised numbers still demonstrate healthy economic growth.

 

[RobDownSouth]

So if actual jobs are less than anticipated jobs, it's a sign of "weakness" in the economy?
I'm wondering why the "anticipated jobs" number is sacrosanct?

Who formulates this number and how is it formulated?

Not being quarrelsome, I'm just questioning numerical assumptions now after reading Nate Silver's new book (highly recommended by the way).

 

[ll74]

You can pretend the economy didn’t add 174,000 jobs per month if you want. That’s okay. Not everyone likes facts.

I have not said that 174,000 jobs were not added. More jobs is a positive thing.

The current story isn't about THAT ...it is about the fact that prior to this report, the government reported that 242,000 jobs were added and the new number is significantly less than that.

The fact is the estimates (yes, they’re still estimates, finalized numbers don’t come out until next year) were adjusted downward, but as the financial expert explained, the revised numbers still demonstrate healthy economic growth.

You're not a serious person.

 

[MajorRewrite]

So if actual jobs are less than anticipated jobs, it's a sign of "weakness" in the economy?
I'm wondering why the "anticipated jobs" number is sacrosanct?

Who formulates this number and how is it formulated?

Not being quarrelsome, I'm just questioning numerical assumptions now after reading Nate Silver's new book (highly recommended by the way).

All of the jobs numbers presented are estimates. The finalized data won’t come out for months yet.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the estimates. Revisions to the estimates are normal practice.

 

[ll74]

So if actual jobs are less than anticipated jobs, it's a sign of "weakness" in the economy?

Not necessarily, but if the companies are preparing for more robust growth and they are offered less, they will often times adjust future predictors, which may mean less hirings, more firings...etc. It ends up having a domino effect.down the line.....sometimes ending up as a self fulfilling prophecy.

Our economy hinges on confidence.....if you're consistently coming up short, people will end up being confident in the trend.

I'm wondering why the "anticipated jobs" number is sacrosanct?

See above

Who formulates this number and how is it formulated?

Trends, sales info, hiring info, global markets....a ton of things.

Not being quarrelsome, I'm just questioning numerical assumptions now after reading Nate Silver's new book (highly recommended by the way).

I need to grab a copy. I value his thoughts.....I know people dislike him, but I find him to be objective and Frank when discussing most topics

 

[MajorRewrite]

You're not a serious person.

You don’t like that a financial expert put the downward revision of the jobs estimates in context. That’s fine.

It doesn’t mean I’m “not a serious person”. Your feelings about the financial expert’s quote don’t have anything to do with me.

 

[ll74]

You don’t like that a financial expert put the downward revision of the jobs estimates in context. That’s fine.

You're ignoring context. The context is that job growth is less than originally reported. You're doing everything you can to ignore that.

Positive job growth is better than negative, but that's not what the report is about.

You can't admit that less growth is not as good as more growth. That economic indicator which used to be higher than expected has been revised to be lower than expected.

It's like if I gave you three cookies and then before you ate them, I told you that you needed to give two of them back.

It doesn’t mean I’m “not a serious person”. Your feelings about the financial expert’s quote don’t have anything to do with me.

It does actually. You can't admit very basic things. And you're focused on the spin rather than objective facts. And the more you do so, the less credible you make yourself....and the purpose of this thread is just comical.

You should really just change the title to "The Spinning of the Economy, by Major rewrite"

Rewriting the news....now I get the name

 

[MajorRewrite]

It does actually. You can't admit very basic things. And you're focused on the spin rather than objective facts.

Ha. My post literally provided the objective data:

The report moves down the monthly job additions seen in the US economy over the time period to 174,000 from 242,000.

You’re just upset that the article I quoted provided context for the revised estimates.

 

[beckiefalwell]

Nobody is hiring MAGAs, I guess.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...Terrorists-To-Indoctrinate-MAGA-Conservatives

 

[ll74]

Ha. My post literally provided the objective data:



You’re just upset that the article I quoted provided context for the revised estimates.

Ok champ - please explain to me how less jobs were created than first reported is a good thing.

And I'll preempt you by saying that your original answer about any jobs being created is a good thing doesn't answer the question.

Yes the data was objective. Your post highlighted non objective data.

 

[lessOHmo]

ll74=MAGA​

 

[lessOHmo]

It was pointed out all along by many that the numbers were fudged and you all pretended that it wasnt true

 

[RobDownSouth]

I need to grab a copy. I value his thoughts.....I know people dislike him, but I find him to be objective and Frank when discussing most topics

This guy has been on every fucking talk show for three weeks flogging his new book on extreme risk.

Interestingly, he's pulling back on his bread-and-butter, political polling. He says its too stressful. "Everyone loves you when your poll results favor your candidate, everyone hates you when your poll has your candidate trailing".

He's still smarting over his prediction that Clinton would win in 2016, saying his polls were deadly accurate within the margin of error but few understood "margin of error" and having something like five states flip within the margin of error to Trump was simply an element of risk.

He used his newfound fortune to stake himself into the World Series of Poker and evidently advanced three days into the WSOP championship last month (not bad for a novice professional). He talked about poker being the most random of games, but discovered that there is one key objective difference between online poker and table poker: the more and better you bluff at table poker gives you a 1% edge which evidently is YUGE in poker. Your body/eyes/mind subconciously notice "tells" on real-world poker opponents.

He also talked about the "art" of sports betting on games, how random odds are for various low-visibility games, particularly bottom-tier Division 1 NCAA football games (i.e. Vanderbilt vs. Appalachian State) and most NHL regular season games, how sports books react instantaneously to activity on games there, so bet early for better odds. Also you need to win 54% of the time on sports betting to negate the house edge.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Nobody is hiring MAGAs, I guess.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...Terrorists-To-Indoctrinate-MAGA-Conservatives

Most MAGA are unemployed ("retired"). Average age is around 70, I think

 

[lessOHmo]

The posted jobs numbers were fake

yes they were

 

[MajorRewrite]

Ok champ - please explain to me how less jobs were created than first reported is a good thing.

And I'll preempt you by saying that your original answer about any jobs being created is a good thing doesn't answer the question.

Yes the data was objective. Your post highlighted non objective data.

My post included the objective data and context from an expert. As he stated, a smaller increase in jobs is still a “very healthy growth rate”.

If that’s not to your liking, you can always rely on Fox Business News to tell you the sky is falling.