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Atlantic Hurricanes

Hypoxia said:
I am in dessicated central California. Send a couple hurricanes this way. We'll suck'em dry, I guarantee it.
Click to expand...

Oh yay! Flooding and mudslides instead of fires the size of New England!

You don't need Hurricanes or the "Pineapple Express," you need a few Arctic Clippers sweeping down from Alaska and dumping yards and furlongs of snow on the Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges.
 
Rain Gauge has overflowed: 5 inches + overflow + 3 inches in the last week.

I like rain. I have to.
 
At least the corn is already in. The soybeans will simply have to wait.
 
Our garden just rotted this year.

Got very little out of it other than early volunteer lettuce.
 


R.I.P.





William M. Gray, Ph.D. (1929-2016) was a major figure in advancing the field of seasonal hurricane forecasting from one that was formerly the sole province of crystal ball readers and The Farmer's Almanac to one approximating an actual science with demonstrable predictive skill.


He accomplished this by the application of hitherto unknown variables (ENSO, Sahel) that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones.



From Wikipedia:
...Among Gray's most prominent achievements were the establishment of seasonal hurricane forecasts and finding that hurricane activity is cyclical.[10] He is widely regarded as a pioneer in hurricane research, particularly for the seasonal forecasts.[1] Throughout his career, Gray published more than 80 papers and 60 research reports.[5] Klotzbach referred to him as "one of the greatest minds in hurricane research".[9]

In the late 1970s, Gray noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin during El Niño years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the African Sahel to an increase in major hurricane landfalls along the United States East Coast. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence.[8]

Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies.[8] Gray issued his first seasonal forecast during July 1983, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures.[11][12] The endeavor proved modestly successful.[8] He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray


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R.I.P.
William M. Gray, Ph.D.


...My earliest memory of Bill was my very first scientific conference, an AMS Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference in Oklahoma, maybe around 1982. The big thing then was the mesoscale modelers were all giving papers showing that their model would take a pre-existing tropical disturbance, say an African easterly wave, and turn it into a hurricane. This indeed was an achievement.

After sitting through all of these presentations, Bill Gray, who was sitting just in front of me, stood up and asked in his Jimmy Stewart-esque way, “All you modelers keep showing your models producing a hurricane out of a disturbance…but that usually doesn’t happen…where are the model results showing that a hurricane doesn’t develop?”
-Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.
​

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/04/william-gray-hurricane-researcher-and-skeptic-dead-at-86/




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June 1st marks the commencement of the Atlantic hurricane season.



In 2016, names for Atlantic tropical cyclones will be:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter




With the waning of the strong 2015-2016 El Niño, the probability of a major hurricane (CAT III or higher) striking the continental US shores for the first time in over 10 1/2 years has just gone up. There are advantages and disadvantages to each change it seems.

El Niño on the wane, the implications of its disastrous worldwide consequences
El Niño = Climate


La Niña could emerge later this year—bringing with it a renewed stretch of extreme weather
La Niña = Weather



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Last edited:
I'm at the Isle of Palms outside of Charleston. Tropical Storm Bonnie is a joke. When we arrived yesterday afternoon it was cloudy and a little rainy. They may have received .25 of an inch the night before. This morning it's a little cloudy. No rain. No wind. The Weather Channel made it sound like there would be death and destruction. Ridiculous.
 




2016 Atlantic tropical cyclones:


1. Alex ×
2. Bonnie ×
3. Colin ×
4. Danielle ×
5. Earl ×
6. Fiona ×
7. Gaston ×
8. Hermine ×
9. Ian ×
10. Julia ×
11. Karl ×
12. Lisa ×
13. Matthew ×
14. Nicole ×
15. Otto
16. Paula
17. Richard
18. Shary
19. Tobias
20. Virginie
21. Walter





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Last edited:
Mid-October is usually the time NC is hit with the damaging 'Canes.
Hopefully Matthew will head even further to the east.
 
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