For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

 

[HisArpy]

The logistics of this operation are daunting. Transporting heavy aircraft components across the Atlantic, likely via airlifters to hubs like Rzeszów, Poland, requires precise coordination.

Lol.

Stuff it into a box, throw it on a plane, and send it. Something DHL and UPS/FED EX do every day and night.

Daunting precision coordination logistics my numb butt, the fool who wrote that has no dam clue about anything. They're airplane PARTS. They can be transported by AIRPLANES wherever they need to go because they're not any heavier than the airplane they're being shipped in can lift. Just like if they were crates of shitty goods from China/Taiwan/Indonesia/etc. destined for Walmart.

 

[LLCox]

The art of the deal ?

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/unpacking-the-us-ukraine-minerals-deal/

 

[ChloeTzang]

Lol.

Stuff it into a box, throw it on a plane, and send it. Something DHL and UPS/FED EX do every day and night.

Daunting precision coordination logistics my numb butt, the fool who wrote that has no dam clue about anything. They're airplane PARTS. They can be transported by AIRPLANES wherever they need to go because they're not any heavier than the airplane they're being shipped in can lift. Just like if they were crates of shitty goods from China/Taiwan/Indonesia/etc. destined for Walmart.

Sounds good though doesn't it. With the Ukrainian's aptitide for Frankenweapons, and they also have a few 3D printers, I wonder if they're putting together a few extra F16's from all the bits and pieces. It avoids the politics of the US sending them fluying F16's, but they get them one way or the other.

They've been doing this with M113's. Picking up bits and pieces of old M113's from all over and rebuilding them. Now an F16 is way more complex than an M113, but they had their own aircraft industry after all, and they're been doing this with old Mig-29's and Su27's. They have more than they had at the start of the war, and apparently more than those plus donations. Lots of rebuilding going on. Anyhow, whatever it is and however they get there, it's all good

 

[HisArpy]

Sounds good though doesn't it. With the Ukrainian's aptitide for Frankenweapons, and they also have a few 3D printers, I wonder if they're putting together a few extra F16's from all the bits and pieces. It avoids the politics of the US sending them fluying F16's, but they get them one way or the other.

They've been doing this with M113's. Picking up bits and pieces of old M113's from all over and rebuilding them. Now an F16 is way more complex than an M113, but they had their own aircraft industry after all, and they're been doing this with old Mig-29's and Su27's. They have more than they had at the start of the war, and apparently more than those plus donations. Lots of rebuilding going on. Anyhow, whatever it is and however they get there, it's all good

My thoughts were that if the US dismantled an entire plane, put it into various crates and shipped them as "spare parts", Ukraine could reassemble it and no one could tell them not to.

The only way to prevent it would be to not send specific critical components. What those would be I have no idea. Nor do I know if this is being done. Or if Ukraine can get around it with salvaged parts from other non-flying F16's or home-grown parts to substitute in. Where there's a will, there's a way.

 

[ChloeTzang]

My thoughts were that if the US dismantled an entire plane, put it into various crates and shipped them as "spare parts", Ukraine could reassemble it and no one could tell them not to.

The only way to prevent it would be to not send specific critical components. What those would be I have no idea. Nor do I know if this is being done. Or if Ukraine can get around it with salvaged parts from other non-flying F16's or home-grown parts to substitute in. Where there's a will, there's a way.

That's where I was thinking 3D printers. When the US shipped them those, they got all the design s/w too apparently. And most of those F16's have been stored intact - they didn't need to strip them for parts before, so even if there are pieces that have been stripped out, they can build the missing components. They'd need a complete overhaul but Ukraine was doing that with their rebuilt Migs and Su-27's. They could do it for F16's as well. It's a nice way to do it while keeping it low key, and it shifts the rebuild to being hands-offf for the USA.

 

[HisArpy]

That's where I was thinking 3D printers. When the US shipped them those, they got all the design s/w too apparently. And most of those F16's have been stored intact - they didn't need to strip them for parts before, so even if there are pieces that have been stripped out, they can build the missing components. They'd need a complete overhaul but Ukraine was doing that with their rebuilt Migs and Su-27's. They could do it for F16's as well. It's a nice way to do it while keeping it low key, and it shifts the rebuild to being hands-offf for the USA.

This works for hard parts but missing avionics or avionics software are a different animal entirely.

 

[ChloeTzang]

This works for hard parts but missing avionics or avionics software are a different animal entirely.

And THAT I have absolutely not the slighest idea about or knowledge of, so I won't even try. LOL

 

[ChloeTzang]

The EU promised Ukraine 2 million shells by 2026—most have already arrived​

Europe’s promise to arm Ukraine with 2 million artillery shells in 2025 was ambitious, but it is now ahead of schedule, with two-thirds already delivered in just four months. Sourced from both EU partners and global allies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon experience a massive influx of artillery ammunition, just in time for the massive planned Russian summer offensive. The European Union aims to deliver at least 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, having already supplied two-thirds ahead of schedule. Although EU states have expanded domestic production, only about 25% of the shells come from the existing domestic military industrial base. The rest are sourced externally, primarily from South Korean and South African defense firms like Hanwha and Denel.

The article's quite long with a lot of detail but the end result is that the EU is providing 2 million, Czechia is providing 1.5 million and domestic Ukrainian production currently produces 2.5 million artillery shells annually. With all programs combined, Ukraine will produce and receive approximately 6 million artillery shells this year. This safely supports all of Ukraine’s artillery needs, with the provided shells translating to roughly 500,000 per month—enough to sustain the current maxiumum fire rates of Ukrainian forces.

Currently, Ukrainians consume approximately 150,000 to 200,000 artillery shells per month to counter current Russian assaults along the entire front line. This number can rise to 600,000 per month during major offensive and defensive operations, as seen during the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive. Currently, Russia’s artillery campaign outnumbers Ukraine’s in both consumption and production. In 2024, Russia fired up to 7 million rounds—an average of around 600,000 shells per month. However, they heavily rely on North Korean supplies, which comprise over 50% of Russia’s monthly artillery consumption. This means Russia cannot sustain its usage through domestic production alone.

Still, Ukrainians have found a way to compensate for their artillery disadvantage—conserving shells when not absolutely necessary to build up a substantial reserve. This allows them to ramp up their fire rate during more intense Russian offensives and reduce the Russian artillery superiority to a 2:1 ratio. Their current fire rate allows Ukrainians to build up a monthly shell reserve of over 300,000. Overall, the swift delivery of artillery shells from the EU and the Czech Republic enables the Ukrainians to gradually reduce their artillery disadvantage, as the production capacities of Ukraine and its allies grow faster than anyone anticipated. With production figures for 2025 doubling compared to last year, Ukrainians might have as many as 10 million artillery shells available by 2026, neutralizing the Russian artillery advantage.

While current production numbers are already significantly boosting the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ combat capabilities, smart expenditure will allow Ukraine to completely annihilate any larger Russian offensives planned for the summer campaign. This does not take into account another factor - that Ukrainian artillery is something like 5x more accurate that Russian artillery fire. Go figure.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/02/frontline-report-the-eu-promised-ukraine-2-million-shells-by-2026-most-have-already-arrived/

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Air raid siren along the coastline in #Novorossiysk due to the threat of an attack by unmanned boats. Authorities in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, have issued an alert and blocked traffic along the coast due to the threat of a surface drone attack. Russian monitoring channels also indicated a potential threat in the Kerch area and the Kerch Strait.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Navy reported that there are currently 15 Russian ships in the Black Sea, five of which are carrying Kalibr cruise missiles, with a total salvo capacity of up to 34 missiles.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russ...ck-after-kalibr-carriers-deployed-in-the-sea/

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918364230744523203

 

[Lazaran]

The EU promised Ukraine 2 million shells by 2026—most have already arrived​

Europe’s promise to arm Ukraine with 2 million artillery shells in 2025 was ambitious, but it is now ahead of schedule, with two-thirds already delivered in just four months. Sourced from both EU partners and global allies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon experience a massive influx of artillery ammunition, just in time for the massive planned Russian summer offensive. The European Union aims to deliver at least 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, having already supplied two-thirds ahead of schedule. Although EU states have expanded domestic production, only about 25% of the shells come from the existing domestic military industrial base. The rest are sourced externally, primarily from South Korean and South African defense firms like Hanwha and Denel.

The article's quite long with a lot of detail but the end result is that the EU is providing 2 million, Czechia is providing 1.5 million and domestic Ukrainian production currently produces 2.5 million artillery shells annually. With all programs combined, Ukraine will produce and receive approximately 6 million artillery shells this year. This safely supports all of Ukraine’s artillery needs, with the provided shells translating to roughly 500,000 per month—enough to sustain the current maxiumum fire rates of Ukrainian forces.

Currently, Ukrainians consume approximately 150,000 to 200,000 artillery shells per month to counter current Russian assaults along the entire front line. This number can rise to 600,000 per month during major offensive and defensive operations, as seen during the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive. Currently, Russia’s artillery campaign outnumbers Ukraine’s in both consumption and production. In 2024, Russia fired up to 7 million rounds—an average of around 600,000 shells per month. However, they heavily rely on North Korean supplies, which comprise over 50% of Russia’s monthly artillery consumption. This means Russia cannot sustain its usage through domestic production alone.

Still, Ukrainians have found a way to compensate for their artillery disadvantage—conserving shells when not absolutely necessary to build up a substantial reserve. This allows them to ramp up their fire rate during more intense Russian offensives and reduce the Russian artillery superiority to a 2:1 ratio. Their current fire rate allows Ukrainians to build up a monthly shell reserve of over 300,000. Overall, the swift delivery of artillery shells from the EU and the Czech Republic enables the Ukrainians to gradually reduce their artillery disadvantage, as the production capacities of Ukraine and its allies grow faster than anyone anticipated. With production figures for 2025 doubling compared to last year, Ukrainians might have as many as 10 million artillery shells available by 2026, neutralizing the Russian artillery advantage.

While current production numbers are already significantly boosting the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ combat capabilities, smart expenditure will allow Ukraine to completely annihilate any larger Russian offensives planned for the summer campaign. This does not take into account another factor - that Ukrainian artillery is something like 5x more accurate that Russian artillery fire. Go figure.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/02/frontline-report-the-eu-promised-ukraine-2-million-shells-by-2026-most-have-already-arrived/

View attachment 2534928

The U.S., under the corrupt orange traitor’s administration, no longer deserves / merits the title “The Arsenal of Democracy”.



We. Told. Them. So.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The U.S., under the corrupt orange traitor’s administration, no longer deserves / merits the title “The Arsenal of Democracy”.



We. Told. Them. So.

That's turning into Europe and Ukraine these days

 

[ChloeTzang]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918306879702241560

 

[ChloeTzang]

Britain has completed the transfer of ALL it's AS-90 self-propelled guns to Ukraine​

From a starting point of 89 guns, as of 2023, the number of AS-90 systems was 57 units, and in February 2024 this number decreased to 39 system

There was an initial transfer of 32 guns in 2022 and 18 guns to Ukraine in 2023. In September 2024, the United Kingdom government announced its intention to supply more AS-90 self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine than previously reported with the transfer of 16 more systems announced. After this announcement, in December 2024, AS-90 artillery systems entered service with the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, and in the first quarter of 2025 — in service with the 117th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade and the 151st Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Looks like the UK has now completed the transfer of all 89 AS 90 SPG's to Ukraine with this last announcement. The transfer of artillery systems takes place both in a combat-ready state and for use as donors for the repair of the most serviceable units.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The May 2nd Ukrainian attack on Russian naval units in Novorossiysk scored another success

On May 2, GUR’s Group 13 made history — for the first time ever, a fighter jet was destroyed by a naval drone. A Russian Su-30 was hit by a Magura V5 and exploded mid-air near Novorossiysk and sank to the depths. $50M sacrificed to Neptune. The Russian aircrew ended up in the water during a combined drone attack on the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk but were unfortunately discovered by a civilian cargo ship, which rescued them before they could drown or die from hypothermia. This was stated by Russian propagandist Ilya Tumanov, who administers the aviation channel Fighterbomber. (well, not the drowning bit, that was me).

Black Sea no longer safe for Russian air farce.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Deny's update from yesterday

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukraine downs second Russian aircraft in Crimea​

Ukrainian Forces have successfully downed a second Russian aircraft in Crimea on May 3, reported President Volodymyr Zelensky in his evening address. "Our sea drone brilliantly struck the Russian plane. A testament to Ukraine's capabilities. Our army accurately targeted military objects in Crimea, taking down another Russian aircraft within 24 hours. Additionally, we've destroyed military depots," noted Zelensky.

The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence special unit, in coordination with the SBU and Ukraine's Defense Forces in the Black Sea, eliminated a Russian Su-30 worth around $50 million on May 2. This marks the world’s first instance of a combat aircraft being destroyed by a sea drone. On May 3rd, a second Russian aircraft was shot down by a Ukrainian sea drone.

https://uawire.org/ukraine-downs-second-russian-aircraft-in-crimea

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russia could do more of the same in the usual war of attrition, but there was time to consider other tactics. The summer offensive could include something new to negate Ukraine's new supplies. Putin held back as a cautious bureaucrat. Now he may be ready to be less cautious.

I haven't found the source for this yet but it's likely there....they're using up their trained support troops in meat assaults. Putin is setting goals the Russian Army can only meet by throwing everyone into the slaughter house. They're eliminating themselves and the replacements are getting less and less training. In some cases it's mere days from being mobilizedto ending up dead. Any hard-won experience is not being passed on and their equipment is getting older and less effective. North Korea are shipping their old tanks and old artillery to Russia, for example, and it's being taken out almost as soon as it arrives. I don't believe they are now capable of any tactics other than attrition, and with drones now being all pervasive, that attrition is getting more and more one-sided.

Read the below - despite all the mobilization and recruiting, Russia is running out of "assault infantrymen" - and don't confuse Russian assault infantryman with actual trained soldiers. They're not. They've made minimal gains over the last year and the cost per sq mile captured is gettimg higher and higher. Watch some of the clips of Russian units moving up - they're constantly harrassed by Ukrainian drones, on average losing 80% of tgheir strength before they even get close to the front. Armor and IFV's are useless in the face of drone superiority - Russia is back to WW1 style warfare and like WW1 style warfare, the gods of war are on the side of the defense these days. They simply cannot make and exploit a breakthrough. They may make small gains, but none of these are decisive and the cost is astronomical. Syrski's intentions are to withraw where needed to preserve Ukrainian strength while killing as many Russians as possible.

When Ukraine does attack, it will be well planned and though out, as Kursk was, and it will be drone intensive. Probably this summer. I would suspect a break through towards Mariupol and dropping the Kerch Bridge, combined with a crossing of the Dnipr, but who knows. Once the rout starts, it will be a bloodbath.

"Cry havoc and let slip the drones of war..."

According to our intelligence in the Zaporizhia direction, after several days of intensive attacks, the Russians have run out of assault infantrymen, and tankers, artillerymen and servicemen of combat support units (sappers, anti-aircraft gunners, signalmen, MTZ specialists and others) are being transferred to the assault units of “disposable soldiers”. According to the Southern Defense Forces, the units of the 35th, 49th and 18th combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation are experiencing the greatest shortage of personnel for assault operations. The occupiers have a task to have some significant achievements by May 9, for example, to reach the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region or to take control of the bridgehead near Zaporizhia, but there is no one to carry out these tasks, so they are throwing everyone who is in the “non-assault” units into the “cannon fodder”. This causes outrage, especially among artillerymen, who need to be specially trained and prepared, and are instead being thrown into capturing Ukrainian trenches.

 

[HisArpy]

Russia will likely attempt to make major headway over the summer. If they don't, Putin will come to the peace table quickly this fall or risk being forcibly removed.

I think Ukraine's response will be to push their drone warfare abilities further east to begin decimating the reserve supplies/troops as well as cutting any supply lines from NK or China.

Time will tell.

 

[ChloeTzang]

A mass drone assault could be the summer surprise. If Russia still hasn't started making or buying drones in much higher quantity, then we've already seen how that ends.

I think at the moment Ukraine has them totally outclassed in terms of defense industry mobilization and production.

Russia's problem is the corruption is so embedded it would be impossible to eradicate, and Putin is as much a part of that as anyone else. Their system is based on corruption and it's rule by kleptocracy. Everyone takes their cut and they loot everything possible with no real regard for the consequences, all the way down the line to the military units themselves.

Everything is centralized into their big companies which are owned by the oligarchs and there's little room for initiative and invention or competition. Ukraine is taking out their manufacturing complexes one by one - the latest was in Bryansk where they droned the Strela plant in the Bryansk region - which has now stopped work due to critical damage to the equipment as a result of the drone attack. The enterprise specializes in the production of electronics. In addition, in cooperation with the Rostec corporation, the plant produced "radar equipment." This is one of the largest microelectronics enterprises in russia, fulfilling orders from the Ministry of Defence of the aggressor state. They make diodes, transistors & other semiconductor devices, LEDs, and piezoelectric devices. Russia's running down on everythiung - without North Korea they would be 50% down on artillery ammo - and at some point that supply will dry up - that hit on the Russian depot outside Moscow basically took out almost a year's worth of ammo for the Russians and screwed them for this summer on artillery ammo for support.

Russia is still attacking but there is nth strategic about the attacks - it's pure attrition and they are running out of things - there have been recent clips where Russian soldiers have been sent forward without rifles and ammo and have been told to pick it up from bodies on the way forward....their logistics is running down - look at all the clips of troops moving forward on motorcycles and ATV's and old vans - and Ukraine will likely start working over the rail network soon. Rail and bridges can be repaired easily enough but a lot of their rail is electric, and taking out the locomotives and the electrical substations does way more damage and those locomotives are irreplacable right now. Probabky the substations too. And Ukraine has resumed attacks on their oil industry.

Compare that to Ukraine where they literally hundreds of companies producting drones, customizing them to meet the ask from military units, innovating, competing and cooperating. Now add in other defence companies doing the same with MRAPS, 120mm mortars and the like, and also competing with each other - and Ukraine has been actively working to cut out corruption - and making good progress. Their artillery production is now producing around 35-40 155mm guns a month, they're now making and rolling out the NATO-standard CZ BREN 2 assault rifle, Lynx IFV's are rolling off the line, their own BTR4 IFV's, CV90's being made for them in the Netherlands, probably more F16's assembled from boneyard parts, etc etc etc. They now have enought 155mm artillery ammo lined up for 2025 and production is increasimg, and there's all sorts of other initiatives underway. They may even get Gripens are some point this year as well as more Mirage 2000's.

EU financial support is not letting up, and now that Trump has given up on negotiations, and Ukraine seems to be able to purchase military equipment from the USA, that particular concern as quietened down. As long as US intelligece flows and Trump doesn't actively side with Putin, all is good. The terror attacks on civilians are a distraction, there is nothing of military value about them and all they serve to do is remind Ukrainians that Russians are murderous cockroaches who should be hunted down and exterminated for their war crimes.

Russia will try, but the fact that they are drawing troops from specialized support units to fill out assault units would seem to indicate there are no reserves to speak of available. They'd be using them if they were.