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For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

Ben Hodges: Why Ukraine Is Turning The Tide of the War​


Ben Hodges is a retired United States Army officer who served as commanding general, United States Army Europe from 2014-2018. He has his detractors, but he has a good understanding of the strategic situation and his assessments are always informative.

 

Putin's Favorite Puppet State (Belarus) is About to Collapse​


Belarus is responsible for much of Russia's war against Ukraine. They've allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from their territory, hosted Russian nuclear missiles on their own land, and promoted Russian propaganda talking points. Now, the bill is coming due. Let's talk about what's going on in Belarus' economy, why it's so closely linked to the collapse of Russia, and why Belarus might become Europe's newest democracy after the fall of their dictator, Lukashenko.

 
Rightguide said:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115384956858741387
Click to expand...

Putin once more playing Trump.

Putin’s strategic outreach to Trump seeks to temper US support for Ukraine

Despite warm rhetoric and promises of a summit, Moscow’s tactic of buying time risks undermining real progress on the war. As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything. Initiating a phone call with Donald Trump on the eve of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the White House was no coincidence. The Kremlin is acutely aware of the American president's apparent shift in sympathy towards Ukraine, and it's fearful that, tomorrow, it could translate into Kyiv being given permission to use US Tomahawk missiles. This was a clear attempt to stave off the weapons - which Moscow regards as a dangerous escalation - and bring Donald Trump back around to Russia's way of thinking.

Judging by the White House readout of the call, Vladimir Putin appears to have had some success. Instead of threats and castigation, Trump's rhetoric towards Russia is once again warm and fuzzy. He described the call as "very productive," claimed the leaders made "great progress," and crucially, we're told there'll be another summit. But does that really count as progress? After the distinct lack of progress that followed Alaska, I expect Ukraine and its European allies will doubt whether Budapest will be any different. There is a chance that Trump could still give Zelenskyy what he wants in terms of firepower at their meeting on Friday, but I doubt it. If he does, Putin would be forced to respond, and Budapest would be bust.

The call, and its outcome, follows a similar pattern. Just as Trump seems poised to throw his support behind Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, in a manner that's more than merely verbal, Putin somehow manages to talk him down and buy more time, despite showing no sign of compromise or making any concrete concessions. There was the demand back in March for a 30-day truce, which Putin countered by offering a ceasefire on strikes targeting energy infrastructure only. In May, Trump tried again, but this time with the threat of joining Europe and imposing massive sanctions. Putin's response - direct talks with Ukraine. And don't forget Trump's 50-day, then 12-day, deadline in the summer for Russia to end the war or face economic fury. That's what triggered the Alaska summit.

This feels like history is repeating itself.

How does Putin do it? His tactic seems to be the same each time - offer Trump something he can present as a breakthrough, and serve it with lashings of bald-faced flattery. In this case, he congratulated Trump on his "great accomplishment" of the Gaza ceasefire; he thanked the First Lady for her intervention on Ukraine's missing children; and he agreed to (or perhaps proposed) another face-to-face photo-op. If Budapest happens, Trump will get what he wants - a TV moment to serve as the latest illustration of his peace-making presidency. But perhaps the bigger prize will be Putin's, who'll be welcomed onto EU soil for the first time since the war began, despite Europe's ongoing sanctions on Russia.

You can already see his smile.
 
ChloeTzang said:
Putin once more playing Trump.

Putin’s strategic outreach to Trump seeks to temper US support for Ukraine

Despite warm rhetoric and promises of a summit, Moscow’s tactic of buying time risks undermining real progress on the war. As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything. Initiating a phone call with Donald Trump on the eve of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the White House was no coincidence. The Kremlin is acutely aware of the American president's apparent shift in sympathy towards Ukraine, and it's fearful that, tomorrow, it could translate into Kyiv being given permission to use US Tomahawk missiles. This was a clear attempt to stave off the weapons - which Moscow regards as a dangerous escalation - and bring Donald Trump back around to Russia's way of thinking.

Judging by the White House readout of the call, Vladimir Putin appears to have had some success. Instead of threats and castigation, Trump's rhetoric towards Russia is once again warm and fuzzy. He described the call as "very productive," claimed the leaders made "great progress," and crucially, we're told there'll be another summit. But does that really count as progress? After the distinct lack of progress that followed Alaska, I expect Ukraine and its European allies will doubt whether Budapest will be any different. There is a chance that Trump could still give Zelenskyy what he wants in terms of firepower at their meeting on Friday, but I doubt it. If he does, Putin would be forced to respond, and Budapest would be bust.

The call, and its outcome, follows a similar pattern. Just as Trump seems poised to throw his support behind Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, in a manner that's more than merely verbal, Putin somehow manages to talk him down and buy more time, despite showing no sign of compromise or making any concrete concessions. There was the demand back in March for a 30-day truce, which Putin countered by offering a ceasefire on strikes targeting energy infrastructure only. In May, Trump tried again, but this time with the threat of joining Europe and imposing massive sanctions. Putin's response - direct talks with Ukraine. And don't forget Trump's 50-day, then 12-day, deadline in the summer for Russia to end the war or face economic fury. That's what triggered the Alaska summit.

This feels like history is repeating itself.

How does Putin do it? His tactic seems to be the same each time - offer Trump something he can present as a breakthrough, and serve it with lashings of bald-faced flattery. In this case, he congratulated Trump on his "great accomplishment" of the Gaza ceasefire; he thanked the First Lady for her intervention on Ukraine's missing children; and he agreed to (or perhaps proposed) another face-to-face photo-op. If Budapest happens, Trump will get what he wants - a TV moment to serve as the latest illustration of his peace-making presidency. But perhaps the bigger prize will be Putin's, who'll be welcomed onto EU soil for the first time since the war began, despite Europe's ongoing sanctions on Russia.

You can already see his smile.
Click to expand...

Everyone knows how to play DonOld.

Machado practically offered her Nobel Peace Prize to DonOld in exchange for DonOld dedicating U.S. arms and forces to "liberating" Venezuela.

😑

We. Told. Them. So.

🌷
 
One of Russia's largest employers, Russian Railways announces mass layoffs.

Russian authorities are preparing to implement a system that will allow them to control data on all citizens’ bank cards. By December 2025, a special registry is expected to be launched to track how many cards each person owns: no more than 5 cards per bank and up to 20 cards in total.

 

Russia Begins Mass Layoffs As Oil Industry Implodes​


The perfect storm continues to play out in Russia as the country's largest employer (Russian Railways) announces mass layoffs and Ukraine's unrelenting strikes on the country's oil industry force the increasingly desperate Kremlin into a corner, attempting to manage both the twin economic and fuel crisis that rips apart the nation.

Also covered is China and North Korea taking over an undefended Eastern 40% of Russian economy east of the Urals as exposed in Ukrainian intelligence report.

 

NATO Goes ALL IN for Ukraine... ​


At the start of 2025, Putin thought he could divide NATO and weaken support for Ukraine. Now, the opposite is true. NATO has united behind Ukraine through the expanding PURL program, giving Kyiv access to billions in U.S.-made weapons and ammunition. With over half of NATO’s members now contributing, Ukraine is preparing for a powerful counteroffensive. But what happens next as NATO’s support reaches new levels?

16+ EU countries ad Canada are now contributing to PURL

 

Ukraine RIPS Through Russian Front... 3.5km Breakthrough in One BRUTAL Push​


Russia thought slow and steady would win the war—but Ukraine just shattered that plan. On October 12, Ukraine’s new assault forces achieved a 3.5-kilometer breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia, liberating Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and part of Stepove. Coordinated, mobile, and trained for precision, these troops are redefining Ukraine’s counterattacks. With small units striking fast and supporting heavier forces, Ukraine is reclaiming territory and pushing closer to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. This may be just the beginning.

 

Russia EXECUTES Soldiers as Russian Army COLLAPSES​


Inside Putin's army, a chilling new slang has emerged: "obnulenie," to be zeroed out. This is the fate of Russian soldiers who refuse to fight, executed by their own commanders in a brutal campaign to enforce obedience. This internal collapse is now spilling into the streets of Russia, where protesters chant for Swan Lake, the iconic ballet broadcast during the 1991 Soviet coup, a clear and potent signal of regime crisis that every Russian understands.

This is not an isolated phenomenon. The rot is systemic. With over 20,000 court cases against its own soldiers for refusal to fight, the Russian military is at war with itself. The public feels this decay, with polling showing 41% of Russians believe the war has "crippled the souls" of its soldiers, and 39% now expect a surge in violent crime when they return.

Ukraine's precision strikes are accelerating this collapse, exposing the fragility of Putin's war machine. A fire at a critical oil depot in Crimea burned for days, triggering fuel rationing and widespread shortages across the peninsula. A single strike on a power substation plunged three separate Russian regions into darkness. These attacks reveal a hollowed-out state unable to protect.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro
01:58 - Russian Military's Internal Collapse: Executing Own Troops
02:35 - Drone Success: Your Donations are Saving Lives
05:21 - The Dark Reality: Russia's Energy Grid Under Attack
06:43 - Why Russian Elites Are Shaking Down Own Citizens
08:32 - The End of Putin: Cracks in the Kremlin's Facade
10:42 - Outro

 
Saratov Oil Refinery Hit Again. Major Electrical Substation Hit

Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast overnight on Oct. 16, Ukraine's Special Operations Forces has confirmed. "The Saratov Refinery is one of the oldest Russian oil refining enterprises, formerly known as the Cracking Plant, and is part of the Rosneft oil company," the SSO said in a post on social media. "The volume of oil processing as of 2020 is 7.2 million tons, and in 2023 it is 4.8 million tons. Recall that the SSO struck this facility exactly a month ago, on Sept. 16, 2025."

The news comes as Kyiv continues to escalate its campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure, a key source of Moscow's revenues helping to fuel its all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin announced that the Russian Defense Ministry had received information about a potential drone attack. Later that night, the Federal Air Transport Agency, also known as Rosaviatsiya, reported the temporary closure of Saratov's airport. Local residents reported hearing numerous explosions, according to the Russian Telegram channel Astra. The Saratov oil refinery has been targeted by drone attacks before, with the General Staff confirming a Ukrainian strikeon the facility on Sept. 20. The Saratov refinery produces over 20 types of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, bitumen, and more. The facility, whose processing volume amounted to 4.8 million metric tons in 2023, helps supply the Russian military, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

An electrical substation in Russia's Volgograd Oblast is in flames following a reported Ukrainian drone strike, regional Governor Andrey Bocharov said. The Balashovskaya substation in the region's Novonikolayevka district caught fire after it was hit by debris from a falling drone, Bocharov claimed. Firefighters are operating at the scene and repair services are working to restore power to nearby settlements, he said. No casualties were reported. The fire broke out during a 'massive drone attack' targeting Volgograd Oblast's energy infrastructure overnight, Bocharov said. The Balashovskaya substation is a 500-kv electrical substation owned by a subsidiary of Rosseti, Russia's largest power transmission company. Russian media reported that flight restrictions were imposed at airports in the cities of Volgograd, Samara, Saratov and Tambov.

Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russian air defense forces shot down 51 Ukrainian drones over the country. According to the report, 12 UAVs were neutralized in Saratov, 11 in Volgograd, 8 in Rostov, 6 in Crimea, 4 in Bryansk and Voronezh, 3 in Belgorod, and 1 each over the Kursk, Black Sea and Azov waters.
 
At what point does dear leader recognize his good friend, Putin, is never going to go for peace here?
 
Chloe, have you ever heard of a war game named “Proud Profit”? I’m sure you would find it very interesting. It was played in 1984 and was the war game that convinced Reagan that nuclear war not winnable. In particular I’d like to direct your attention to the section that defines red team perimeters. This is the playbook the Russians are using today. 40 years ago we knew what Russia was all about. We were fools to think they would ever change.
 
ChloeTzang said:

Putin's Favorite Puppet State (Belarus) is About to Collapse​


Belarus is responsible for much of Russia's war against Ukraine. They've allowed Russia to invade Ukraine from their territory, hosted Russian nuclear missiles on their own land, and promoted Russian propaganda talking points. Now, the bill is coming due. Let's talk about what's going on in Belarus' economy, why it's so closely linked to the collapse of Russia, and why Belarus might become Europe's newest democracy after the fall of their dictator, Lukashenko.

Click to expand...

I hope this isn't just wishful thinking.
 
Baztrachian said:
I hope this isn't just wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

I've seen a LOT of posts lately about things becming less and less stable in Belarus. I suspected when Putin's ability to step int Belarus evaporates (econimic implosion) then Lukashenko will get the chop a la Ceaucescu

Belarus is a lot closer to Poland and Ukraine culturally than it is to Russia
 
TJX said:
Chloe, have you ever heard of a war game named “Proud Profit”? I’m sure you would find it very interesting. It was played in 1984 and was the war game that convinced Reagan that nuclear war not winnable. In particular I’d like to direct your attention to the section that defines red team perimeters. This is the playbook the Russians are using today. 40 years ago we knew what Russia was all about. We were fools to think they would ever change.
Click to expand...

I can't get into specifics but I was on the sidelines of a couple wargames where the Russian nuclear forces were simultaneously destroyed and no nuclear weapons were used. The scenarios were technologically possible and plausible and that was factoring in scenarios where the Russians compromised aspects of the operations.
 
Trump's Ability to Inflience the Ukraone-Russia War
Andrew Tanner

Barring direct intervention on Ukraine’s side, the USA has even less influence over the fighting in Ukraine now than ever before. That’s a natural consequence of your credibility being shot. D.C. hacks may be rushing to take a share of credit for Ukraine switching off a significant fraction of Moscow’s oil refining over the past two months, and the signals intelligence the US can provide is no doubt useful for avoiding Russian air defenses, but Ukraine was hitting refineries last year when there were fewer drones and Team Biden was so terrified of the consequences his people prematurely ended the campaign before belatedly ending his.

The White House and half the international media may demand that everyone pretend that Trump is the master of the universe, but it’s all part of the con. They don’t have control over much of anything. Not that details actually matter in the fading USA’s terminal bread and circuses routine. While Trump has finally started behaving as he should have on Ukraine from the very beginning, theres no guarantees that this wil continue - as this new Putin-Trump meeting farce in Budapest illlustrates.

Operations are what will decide the future, because like it or not, what future historians will call World War Three became a near-certainty in 2025. Now, there is only adaptation and survival.

The stakes in Ukraine are clear as crystal: either Europe is able to break free of the wretched trap D.C. and Beijing are trying to push it into, or Europeans are doomed to see their lands become a proxy battlefield in a forever war. Victory in Ukraine is the only way out, and the sooner the better. Once strategic parameters are fixed the only way to win any fight is, on some level, to do operations better than the other side. Tactics are important too, but a chaotic factor that stems from advances in technology and each side’s ongoing adaptations to conditions. Where strategic matters are like ice, tactics are presently fire: something else that makes this war more like the Second World War than the First. Operations have to cut through the dense fog produced by the meeting of strategic ice and tactical fire. They impose a kind of order on the chaos, creating a highly unstable dynamic that can magnify weaknesses in an opposing system less effective at coping with confusion.

In the Second World War, German and Japanese operations between 1939 and 1942 completely upended the prevailing strategic balance, shocking their enemies. But by 1943, each had squandered their initial seeming overwhelming advantages and soon found their enemies conducting effective operations that steadily shrank their room for strategic maneuver.

Ukraine first upended the strategic balance presumed to exist in 2022. The Ukrainians did it again starting in the middle of 2024, when critical shortages of artillery shells and armored vehicles met Russian attrition warfare, forcing the mass adoption of drones. Instead of, as the Japanese and Germans both did, expending most of their potential fighting to expand frontiers seized at relatively little cost against an under-prepared prepared force, the Ukrainians - save in 2023 - have struck limited counterblows that drew off Moscow’s reserves, forcing them to fight an attritional struggle on unfavorable terms.

This has left Ukraine in a remarkable position: instead of being beaten down by years of constant war as is the case in Putin’s empire, Ukrainian industry remains invigorated, producing millions of drones and a good portion of its other basic defense requirements. Bohdana howitzers, which are as good as their NATO equivalents and cheaper, are now produced at a rate of forty per month, half self-propelled, half towed. This is enough to outfit every single one of Ukraine’s new corps with a dedicated artillery brigade in a year. Other forms of gear are no doubt following suit.

The challenge now is working out how to employ Ukrainian resources in such a way that territory can be reclaimed at the lowest possible cost in lives. This is the world of operations.
 
Baztrachian said:
I can't get into specifics but I was on the sidelines of a couple wargames where the Russian nuclear forces were simultaneously destroyed and no nuclear weapons were used. The scenarios were technologically possible and plausible and that was factoring in scenarios where the Russians compromised aspects of the operations.
Click to expand...

Let's not also forget that Russian nuclear forces are a shadow of their former self. It's debatable whether those weapons would actually work - look at whats happened with their ballistic missile launches - and one failure immediately removes the credibility of their nuclear deterrent. What if they launched a nuke and it was a dud?

Now also, take a look at everything else thats happening. The Russian econmy is imploding. There was just a large demo in St Petersbug where they were singing some sng from Wan Lake which apparently has all sorts of connotations. Recruiting bonuses have been cut in half the oblasts because they don;t have the money ad these Russian soldiers are mercanaries - no money, no bodies. Recruiting was already drying up, Pokrovsk was Putin;s last big kick at the can and it's been a failure. Ukraine are making local advances here and there. Russian air defences are gone and Russia is a wide open target for Ukrainian missiles and drones.

Ukraine is winning by holding the line and destroying the Russian econmomy - Russia WILL implode at some point OR somene will bite the bullet, Putin will get the cop and a realist will take over and try to keep the Russian Federation together - it may not be too late to do that.

Trump and Putin conferences at this point are just a distraction with little meaning other than to flatter Trump's ego
 
Baztrachian said:
I can't get into specifics but I was on the sidelines of a couple wargames where the Russian nuclear forces were simultaneously destroyed and no nuclear weapons were used. The scenarios were technologically possible and plausible and that was factoring in scenarios where the Russians compromised aspects of the operations.
Click to expand...
I saw War Games as a kid too, bro!

LMAO, what a putz!
 
ChloeTzang said:
Let's not also forget that Russian nuclear forces are a shadow of their former self. It's debatable whether those weapons would actually work - look at whats happened with their ballistic missile launches - and one failure immediately removes the credibility of their nuclear deterrent. What if they launched a nuke and it was a dud?
Click to expand...

Russia's Mayak nuclear facility suffered a devastating disaster back in 2017.

https://www.livescience.com/66050-radiation-cloud-secret-russian-nuclear-accident.html

Mayak was their only weapons-grade processing facility and it is kaput.

Russian nuclear cores have a shelf life of about ten years and that means anything older than 2015 is iffy at best for functionality.

NONE of the Soviet era nukes are functional at this point. Maybe they can be used as dirty bombs but they will NOT go critical. I doubt that the weapons themselves are in good shape given the damage that constant radioactive bombardment does to metal objects like weapons casings, delicate electronics, and etc.

Frankly, once you account for Russian corruption I'd expect that Russia has fewer than a dozen functional weapons. Maybe even none.

The bloody things cost money when they're just sitting around and Russia doesn't have that kind of money.
 
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