ChloeTzang
Literotica Guru
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- Apr 14, 2015
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A solid read. Balanced and reality based:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/false-promise-ukraines-deep-strikes-russia
Very. And I don't think anyone expects Ukraine's deep strikes on infrastructure to win the war, just as Russia's strikes on Ukraine's power grid and its terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities will win the war for Russia. I suspect though that with these new jet drones, and the ballistic missile Ukraine seems to have developed, we're going to see more oil depot strikes, hurting Russia's oil exports, which is where a lot of their foreign exchange comes from. We'll also see Russian aircraft pushed back to airfields further from the frontlines, which, combined with the F16's and the 2 Swedish AWAC's aircraft next year, will reduce the Russian's ability to provide ground attack support at the front, which is their only real advantage right now.
Now, look at artillery. Ukraine is upping it's output if Bohdana 155's, I think from memory the target was to roll 20 a month off the production line by later this year and it may well end up being more. Fuchs, Lynx and CV90's will be making an appearance and equipping Ukrainian brigades with modern IFV's. New brigades are formed, being trained and to NATO standards and more are coming. Ukraine's issue is not manpower, but weapons to equip them. Ammo manufacturing is increasing, both in Ukraine and across Europe. Ukraine is undoubtedly working on its own SAM systems, and I believe they are working on their own HIMARS equivalent.
But I totally agree, those deep strikes will not win the war but they are a distraction, and good targeting, which the Ukrainians are much better at than the Russians, WILL have an impact. If it was me, I'd target a few key manufacturing facilities with waves of drones and jet drones, aiming to take out the plant AND the workers simultaneously, and follow up with second and third strikes to take out the emergency workers and finish the job. Russia DID concentrate key weapons manufacturing in big plants, they're not that diversified, and a few strikes like that eliminate an entire plant AND the workers that make the plant effective. That won't win the war either, but again, it will have an impact.
Russian logistics relies on trains, and much of the Russian rail network is electrified. Take out power plants and substations and you impact logistics, with obvious flow on effects. And so on....
And then do what the Ukrainians are doing, and slowly isolate the Crimea and Kherson, with Kursk as a distraction, and then the right hook comes. There are a LOT of Ukrainian brigades out of sight right now, and I'm sure the Russians are asking themselves where they are. And if the Russian's DON'T move more troops to Kursk, the next Ukrainian push there will simply take more. And more...until they force Russia to respond.
It's going to be interesting.