For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[icanhelp1]

If Europe could scale up it would have done so by now. It lost Russian fuel and now the Mid East is blowing up too. It will have more trouble keeping lights on, homes heated, and people fed.

If Trump wins that all changes!

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Celand]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

OMG! The horror!!!! The sheer horror!!!! A Telegram channel Crimean Wind suggested that the drones specifically targeted distilleries in Stary Oskol, Belgorod Oblast, and the Novokhopersky district of Voronezh Oblast. No more vodka!!!!! This will bring Russian culture to its knees, fueled as it is by liquid alcohol!

THIS is a war crime against the Russian People! Can you imagine as the DT's strike across a swath of Russia!!!!!!!

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10...istilleries-in-voronezh-and-belgorod-oblasts/

 

[ChloeTzang]

With Putin’s war of aggression approaching its third anniversary, the financial, technological, and demographic hurdles facing the Russian economy are more severe than is commonly understood. Ukrainian military intelligence has obtained Russian documents suggesting that the Kremlin wants to sue for peace at the end of 2025 for economic reasons.

Lot's more in the article, but the gist of it is, Russia is under a lot of financial pressure, lacks the manpower to mobilize more, and is heading for some major economic and financial impacts and shortfalls as the massive war spending continues.....

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/40043

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Biden Administration's feckless approach to supporting Ukraine, in this instance, the Biden/Harris prohibition on Ukraine from using American missiles against Russia, has led Europe to arrive at a clear conclusion that the US is NOT a reliable defence partner, and has now directly cost us billions of dollars worth of export orders. France, Germany, Italy, and Poland now plan to have their own ground-based cruise missile to reduce the risks associated with aligning with the US position on how to use their weapons. The countries signed an agreement to develop their own ground-based cruise missile on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington. The main point is that by announcing the start of work on creating their own long-range ground-based cruise missile, these European countries directly indicated to the United States that it had just lost a huge defense market in Europe. Moreover, they did this right in Washington.

This decision by European countries means billions lost in contracts because the air-launched version of the JASSM, which Germany in particular had originally been intending to purchase, costs around $8 million per unit. Meanwhile, the EU actively promotes unified defense procurement and lobbies for its own armaments. Therefore, it is highly probable that all other EU member states will purchase the European cruise missile.

The law of unintended consequences strikes again - funny how often it strikes the Biden/Harris Administration.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/us_l...a_eu_to_develop_own_cruise_missile-11144.html

 

[colddiesel]

The Biden Administration's feckless approach to supporting Ukraine, in this instance, the Biden/Harris prohibition on Ukraine from using American missiles against Russia, has led Europe to arrive at a clear conclusion that the US is NOT a reliable defence partner, and has now directly cost us billions of dollars worth of export orders. France, Germany, Italy, and Poland now plan to have their own ground-based cruise missile to reduce the risks associated with aligning with the US position on how to use their weapons. The countries signed an agreement to develop their own ground-based cruise missile on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington. The main point is that by announcing the start of work on creating their own long-range ground-based cruise missile, these European countries directly indicated to the United States that it had just lost a huge defense market in Europe. Moreover, they did this right in Washington.

This decision by European countries means billions lost in contracts because the air-launched version of the JASSM, which Germany in particular had originally been intending to purchase, costs around $8 million per unit. Meanwhile, the EU actively promotes unified defense procurement and lobbies for its own armaments. Therefore, it is highly probable that all other EU member states will purchase the European cruise missile.

The law of unintended consequences strikes again - funny how often it strikes the Biden/Harris Administration.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/us_l...a_eu_to_develop_own_cruise_missile-11144.html

Chloe , most of those export orders were never going to happen, and the cause is again, unintended consequences. When the previous US administration cut taxes on the wealthy the rationale was that the wealthy with their lighter tax burden would invest more, leading to an improved economy. The clap trap of "trickle down" economics failed of course, just as it did for Reagan 40+ years ago. That additional investment did not happen, instead all that money went into the purchase of US government bonds to fund the unprecedented levels of debt incurred by the Trump administration's grossly excessive spending. Trump set a fire under the price of the US dollar which has proceeded apace for 6 years, and until that is dealt with, virtually every US manufacturing company (not just armaments) has been priced out of International markets.

And given the Clown show of the US Congress, good luck with getting any sensible monetary policy in place.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[astuffedshirt_perv]

The Biden Administration's ... has led Europe to arrive at a clear conclusion that the US is NOT a reliable defence partner, and has now directly cost us billions of dollars worth of export orders. France, Germany, Italy, and Poland now plan to have their own ground-based cruise missile to reduce the risks associated with aligning with the US position on how to use their weapons.

THANK GOD and ITS ABOUT GD TIME. Another glowing victory for the Biden administration, for the US, and for the EU. For decades the US has pleaded with the Europe to pay attention to their defense, the loonies are just across you border, only for Europe to (rightly) respond "Why? You got our back." Now, finally, at the cost of huge numbers of dead Ukrainians, the wise actions of Biden et al have finally woken Europe. EU, this is your back yard. Deal with it. And now, finally, they seem to understand.

Trump wasn't lying back in 2015(!) that the EU didn't pay their fair share of defense, but he was unable to do anything about it.

When the previous US administration cut taxes on the wealthy the rationale was that the wealthy with their lighter tax burden would invest more, leading to an improved economy...additional investment did not happen,

Good Lord child, have you looked at GDP growth of the US vs the rest of the G7? G20? It is truly a glorious sight. May not be as big as you would like, but much bigger than any one else.

...virtually every US manufacturing company (not just armaments) has been priced out of International markets.

And yet, US manufacturing is up and there is a boom in manufacturing facility construction. I'll take it.

 

[Bn2f]

THANK GOD and ITS ABOUT GD TIME. Another glowing victory for the Biden administration, for the US, and for the EU. For decades the US has pleaded with the Europe to pay attention to their defense, the loonies are just across you border, only for Europe to (rightly) respond "Why? You got our back." Now, finally, at the cost of huge numbers of dead Ukrainians, the wise actions of Biden et al have finally woken Europe. EU, this is your back yard. Deal with it. And now, finally, they seem to understand.

Trump wasn't lying back in 2015(!) that the EU didn't pay their fair share of defense, but he was unable to do anything about it.



Good Lord child, have you looked at GDP growth of the US vs the rest of the G7? G20? It is truly a glorious sight. May not be as big as you would like, but much bigger than any one else.


And yet, US manufacturing is up and there is a boom in manufacturing facility construction. I'll take it.

Haha!
Sir, there’s a fatal flaw in all the high falutin reasoning you just spouted that I’m shocked you didn’t notice before hitting send.
Duh! You said all this to the member known as Chloetzang!

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

A new batch of F-16 fighter jets has been received by Ukraine after Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Breckelmans announced it through his official account. Breckelmans wrote that for the first time, he can officially announce that the first Dutch F-16s have been delivered to Ukraine. The minister did not disclose the number of F-16s delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force. The Netherlands promised 24 F-16 fighters to Ukraine. According to Breckelmans, the rest of the 24 promised fighters will be delivered in the coming months.

These are believed to be F-16 AM/BM modification aircraft, also known as Block 20 MLU [Mid-Life Upgrade]. These fighters are modernized versions of the F-16A/B Block 15, which were part of the armament of the Netherlands Air Force. The MLU modifications include significant improvements in avionics, control systems, and operational range, making them compatible with newer standards for combat operations. The F-16AM/BM has a length of 15.06 meters and a wingspan of 9.96 meters, and its maximum take-off weight reaches 19,200 kg. The aircraft is powered by a single Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 turbojet engine that provides a top speed of over 2,000 km/h at altitude.

Modified F-16s from Block 20 MLU are equipped with advanced control systems, including digital flight control systems [Digital Flight Control System – DFCS] and an integrated pilotage-navigation complex. These systems facilitate the flight crew in executing complex maneuvers and missions. The fighters are equipped with the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-66[V]2 radar, which provides improved air and ground target detection capabilities and enables effective weapons use. In addition, the aircraft features a built-in AN/ALQ-131 self-defense system developed by Raytheon, as well as systems to counter electronic threats, increasing the combat survivability of the aircraft.

In terms of armament, the Dutch F-16 AM/BM is capable of carrying a wide range of air-to-air missiles, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder, as well as ground attack weapons like the JDAM, GBU-12, and AGM-65 Maverick. The aircraft has six external armament points and is equipped with a 20mm M61A1 Vulcan autocannon. The operational range of the F-16AM/BM is about 1,500 km, and this parameter can be increased with the use of external fuel tanks. These aircraft are specifically designed for multi-role missions, making them valuable assets in modern combat environments.

At the beginning of August, the head of the Danish Ministry of Defense, Troels Lund Poulsen, confirmed that the first F-16s had arrived in Ukraine. Denmark intends to send another batch by the end of the year. In total, Copenhagen promised to deliver 19 F16 fighter jets to Kyiv. In total, Ukraine has been promised about 61 F-16 fighter jets from various countries. The main suppliers so far are the Netherlands, which has committed to 24 aircraft, and Denmark, which plans to provide 19 F-16s. Norway is also expected to join the process, with an estimated delivery of between 10 and 12 aircraft. The countries that provide these fighters are core NATO members, and they not only provide the equipment but also train Ukrainian pilots and support personnel.

For the effective maintenance of the F-16s, in addition to the two pilots per aircraft, a significant number of technical personnel is also required. Typically, maintaining an F-16 requires a team of about 20 to 30 people, including avionics technicians, engine, weapons, and electronic systems specialists, as well as logistics support experts. Training of Ukrainian technical personnel takes place in allied countries, with the main training centers in the US and some European countries, including Denmark and the Netherlands. There, technicians take intensive courses in maintaining and repairing F-16s, as well as working with the complex systems these planes use, including navigation and combat systems. This preparation is key to ensuring the long-term operational readiness of Ukraine’s aircraft.

 

[ChloeTzang]

And in more Ukraine War news.....

Ukrainian Forces Have Hit The Largest Petroleum Transhipment Hub in Crimea: The targeted oil depot is identified as the Marine Oil Terminal, Crimea’s largest petroleum transhipment hub, which Ukrainian drones have attacked in previous incidents. There are two such terminals on the peninsula, with the second one in the occupied Sevastopol. The strike triggered a large fire at the depot. Local authorities initially declared a man-made emergency, but later retracted the statement, calling it a "technical error." Reports from "Crimean Wind" also suggest that military airfields in Saki and Belbek were hit in simultaneous drone strikes.

Russian marginal tactical gains come at cost of significant armoured vehicle losses – ISW. Since the beginning of their offensive to capture Avdiivka in October 2023, Russian forces have reportedly lost the equivalent of at least five divisions’ worth of armoured vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk district. Additionally, losses continued to mount during intensified Russian operations in western Donetsk Oblast in the summer of 2024. On 4 October, an open-source user on X (Twitter) who tracks confirmed Russian equipment losses reported that 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment have been lost in the Pokrovsk district since 9 October 2023.

The Netherlands allocates $400+ million for joint advanced drones development in Ukraine: Half of the drones will be developed in the Netherlands, while the remained ones will be manufactured in Ukraine and other countries.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Not content with eliminating Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine is now working on the Russian Baltic Fleet.

The Russian minesweeper Aleksandr Obukhov was stationed in Baltiysk and was there to commence its combat service after undergoing repairs at a shipyard in St. Petersburg in July. "As a result of a successful operation by Ukraine’s defence intelligence, the minesweeper of the Russian Federation's Baltic Fleet—Aleksandr Obukhov—was immobilized. The vessel, which was stationed in the city of Baltiysk and intended to commence combat service, suffered severe damage—water entered the engine due to a mysterious hole in the exhaust pipe. Obukhov was incapacitated," according to the HUR communiqué. "Currently, the Russian minesweeper is undergoing extensive repairs, which may turn out to be a significant issue—the damaged M-503 engine is a scarce commodity," the communiqué added.

Ukrainian operation disables second Baltic fleet vessel​

 

[colddiesel]

Obviously Chloe, the Danes Dutch et al are supplying these planes/armament/training with the full approval of the Biden/Harris US government.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Obviously Chloe, the Danes Dutch et al are supplying these planes/armament/training with the full approval of the Biden/Harris US government.

And look how long it took to get that approval.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

First of all, this isn’t a “surprise” but rather a series of events that are leading towards this outcome. To begin with, Russian Railways wasn’t able to provide all the shipping that the coal companies required. The system was overloaded. No Transport led to a shut down in production. The railways & coal are heavily tied together.

To make a long story short, a series of bad decisions by Russian Railways YEARS ago followed by the repercussions of the 2022 invasion has put Russian Railway it a bad position. They were likely going to end up here anyway, but the events of 2022 likely accelerated things. Years ago Russian Railways - a monopoly - eliminated their ENTIRE MAINTENANCE DEPARTMENT. Since then, locomotives have not been properly maintained. In addition about half of their locomotives are over 20 years old, and parts are no longer made. The older locomotives take longer to repair, something that took a very painfully long study for the leadership to comprehend (like duh, old stuff takes more upkeep) plus finding the parts also is challenging. On top of that, their maintenance staff (I guess they kept some but closed down the "Department") has become overloaded.

People like to point out the Russia is getting new locomotives without recognizing the scale of the problem. Russia often does this, they operate large companies with small business mentalities. You can expect someone to manufacturer or sell you all the locomotives you need immediately if you're country the size of Russia. But maintaining them? Hmmm. Now, the Russian government is basing its energy strategy on a constant increase in coal production — from the current 438 million tons per year to 482 million tons in 2030 to 556 million in 2050. Now, Russia is also running short on tax revenue to fund the war and they're increasing taxes and tariffs.

Yep. Tariffs. On coal exports. Margins everywhere were already low on coal. But, not only are they getting hit with duties from Russia, they are ALSO getting hit with duties from CHINA. China has free trade agreements with several countries, but not Russia. So coal from Australia doesn’t have to pay duties, coal from Russia does. Which means their profitability drops even further. But - there's more! The cost of transportation is a huge expense for coal. An expense that they can’t really negotiate anywhere but at the port. They’re stuck with Russian railways costs and limitations. Even with the worsening state of the coal industry, it took a court order to get the Ministry of Finance to stop going after it for funds to feed Russia’s war addiction. And ccoal prices are so low that the Ministry of Finance STILL won’t be able to extract funds from them. And Russian Railways is also projecting more price increases!

If coal in Russia collapses, then major portions of the country may begin accelerated depopulation. Interesting hey. All sorts of ramifications, and never forget Russia is a mafia economy, with the government as the biggest predator.

"The worst crisis in 30 years." Coal production began to collapse in Russia​

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Russian economy is really hitting problems.....Dominos, they are going to start falling like dominos.

 

[ChloeTzang]

If you've been following the Russian vehicle losses, they're now losing hundreds of trucks every week. Logistical impacts......

 

[colddiesel]

If coal in Russia collapses, then major portions of the country may begin accelerated depopulation. Interesting hey. All sorts of ramifications, and never forget Russia is a mafia economy, with the government as the biggest predator.

"The worst crisis in 30 years." Coal production began to collapse in Russia​

The worlds biggest Power station (Steaming) coal exporter is Indonesia who have gone from zero to number 1 within 30 years. No one can beat them on price and their un - washed coal is exceptionally clean. and 99% of the delivery is one journey by ship. Australia is still the worlds largest supplier of coking coal to Asia (for steel making) and most of the Southern hemisphere coals from OZ, South Africa, India and Indonesia tend to have greater energy output per kilo. The Russians cannot compete, collapse of the coal industry in Eastern Ukraine would give a lot of the Russians who migrated there in the days of the USSR a good reason to leave. More unintended consequences.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The worlds biggest Power station (Steaming) coal exporter is Indonesia who have gone from zero to number 1 within 30 years. No one can beat them on price and their un - washed coal is exceptionally clean. and 99% of the delivery is one journey by ship. Australia is still the worlds largest supplier of coking coal to Asia (for steel making) and most of the Southern hemisphere coals from OZ, South Africa, India and Indonesia tend to have greater energy output per kilo. The Russians cannot compete, collapse of the coal industry in Eastern Ukraine would give a lot of the Russians who migrated there in the days of the USSR a good reason to leave. More unintended consequences.

The ramifications of this war longer term are both fascinating and rather scary. The targeted attacks on Russian's oil and gas industry are only going to become more intense, and then when you factor in things like this and the ongoing impact on Russia's rail network, Russia is taking a huge hit, and that is nor even looking at the demographic impact.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The fire at Russia's Feodosia oil terminal, one of the largest in Russia (in occupied ) Crimea is worsening. Video shows situation out of control, with several new oil tanks burning. Over 1,000 people have been evacuated. It's an old termninal, the tanks are close to each other, they simply heat up and then explode, one by one. The Feodosia oil depot, identified as JSC "Marine Oil Terminal," stands as the largest in Crimea, boasting a storage capacity of 250,000 cubic meters. It is one of two such terminals on the Russian-annexed peninsula, the second of which is located in Sevastopol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843714575335862647

 

[ChloeTzang]

Well, Biden's fucked over Ukraine again. He cancelled his upcoming trip to Germany in a blow to plans for the highest level meeting ever of the Ramstein group of Ukraine arms donors that aimed to underscore unwavering support for Kyiv. The Ramstein group was set to meet at the highest level, ostensibly because of Milton, altho WTF Biden thinks he should stick around for his questionable. He does three tenths of fuck all anyhow. What he HAS done is, de-facto, ‘thrown in the towel’: Ukraine need not expect any substantial additional aid from the USA as long as Biden is still in the White House. Which is until 20-21 January 2025. So much for the ‘Cradle of Democracy’ and its ‘defense of freedom, prosperity, and human rights’. In other words, for the second year in succession, Ukraine being is abandoned by the USA right on time for the onset of the winter campaign.

Thanks for nothing, Joe.

Which means that now Ukraine must see how it is going to survive the next four months almost entirely on its own and with European help. That means longer, because when Trump wins, Ukraine shouldn't expect substantial help above and beyond what the Biden/Harris administration has been trickling through.

 

[ChloeTzang]