For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

The first ex-French Dassault Mirage 2000-5s are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine in early 2025, French defense minister Sébastien Lecornu announced Tuesday. Surviving French Mirage 2000-5s—out of the 37 “dash-fives” Dassault built for the French air force in the 1990s—are scheduled to retire between now and 2029, but Lecornu has said their replacements, new Dassault Rafales, could arrive early and speed up the process. With a little bureaucratic urgency, there’s no reason France couldn’t equip the Ukrainian air force with a couple of dozen Mirage 2000-5s through 2025—enough to expand the air force’s existing bomber unit, the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade, or form a new brigade. A second bomber brigade is the likelier outcome, given how much the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade has already expanded in the 31 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine.

From announcement to delivery, France will have M2K Mirages delivered to Ukraine in a few months. It took Biden 1.5 years to deliver F-16s, and most of that time was Biden prevaricating, stalling for time, and slowing down delivery. I don't like Macron, but here at least he is delivering.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru

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Feodosia. Occupied Crimea. The largest oil storage depot in "Russia." Oil tanks keep burning and exploding at the oil facility days after it was hit by Ukraine. Firemen are unable to contain the fire, which is burning out of control. Another tank exploded, bringing the total up to at least 6 tanks affected by the attack, either damaged or completely destroyed.


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This Statistica chart is one @PhillipsPOBrien sent out in his latest Ukraine substack column showing the Biden Administration aid and weapons disbursements to Ukraine.

The Biden Administration simply isn't interested in providing the AFU with the tools to win. The Biden Administration has thrown in the towel and will do nothing more to aid Ukraine until "after the election", at which point Trump will be the President-elect in any case. The Biden administration won't approve the heart of the new Ukrainian strategy, which would be to help the Ukrainians with the ability to strike deeper into Russia on an ongoing basis. We need to be clear what is happening here. Biden has never wanted Ukraine to have the ability to strike too effectively against Russian power. At first this was shown by his fear about letting Ukraine strike Crimea, and by his constant fear and prevarication about letting Ukraine have even old US systems such as Abrams tanks, F-16s, etc.

Its the same situation that we have had since Feb 2022. The administration believed then that Ukraine had no chance—and was prepared for a swift Russian conquest of at least eastern Ukraine. When the Ukrainians shocked the administration through its effective and powerful resistance, certain fundamentals in their outlook never changed. First, the Biden administration/President remained fearful that Putin might follow through with his nuclear threats against Ukraine. Second, the Biden administration/President remained petrified about a possible Russian collapse—preferring a dictator in control of Moscow to instability.

These worries (people unfairly often blame Jake Sullivan for them—they emit from Biden, and people need to face that squarely) have been the cornerstones of US policy until now. And what the President has now communicated to the Ukrainians is that they will continue to govern the US as long as he is chief executive. So thats it. Ukraine will get no more capabilities and only a little more ammunition. The amount of aid actually disbursed to Ukraine this year is much lower than 2022 and around 40% of that in 2023. If money talks, the Biden administration is screaming loudly and clearly that Ukrainian victory is not a priority and they will do little more for Ukraine.

This is a catastrophic decision for Ukraine, but it is the reality. Ukraine can expect nothing more from Biden. Given Harris will not win the Presidential election, and that is looking more certain with every week that passes, Ukraine is in a tough place right now, reliant more than ever on European support and its own resources.

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Didn't plan to be back for the rest of the day but this was too good too miss. An F-16 Fighting Falcon, possibly supplied by Denmark earlier this year, has reportedly claimed its first air-to-air kill against a Russian Su-34 aircraft in Ukraine. The incident, which occurred around 30 miles from the frontlines, was first reported by pro-Kremlin milbloggers, though neither the Russian nor Ukrainian governments have officially commented. Russian Fighterbomber Telegram channel is whining and wailing and gnashing it's teeth about a Russian Su34 being shot down by an F16 over Kursk at night when it was on a mission to drop FABs on the frontline. The crew, by the way, were both killed.

If a Ukrainian F-16 has indeed shot down a Russian Su-34 ca 50km behind enemy lines, the most probable air-to-air missile used was the AIM-120 AMRAAM. It's a beyond-visual-range missile with a range exceeding 100 km, making it capable of the described scenario.

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In any case, in answer to the OP: We Americans are not in Ukraine. Only our money and weapons are in Ukraine. Since this war started, Zelenskyy has been begging all friendly nations for weapons and ammunition -- but not for troops; the armaments are for Ukrainian soldiers to use. Because he knows the score: Most nations willing and able to help are NATO members, and no NATO member can afford to let its troops engage Russian troops directly -- too much chance of nuclear escalation.
 
Ukraine is proving that determination and good training beats mass every time. While Russia is supplying meat for the Ukrainian grinder and scrap metal for the future steel mill's production, what Z needs is Tomahawks to swarm the Kremlin while Putin holds one of his top strategy meetings.
 
Putin has made another bet on the West being cowardly, shortsighted, and weak enough to throw Ukraine under the bus for the sake of false and deceptive comfort of “peace in our time” via appeasement. He may be proved right.

For all that, Putin-Russia may also have achieved another own goal. The Republic of Korea (South Korea) is now considering supplying arms directly to Ukraine.

“South Korea’s presidential office has condemned an agreement reached by Russia and North Korea that vowed mutual defence assistance in the event of war, the Associated Press reported. The office also said South Korea will reconsider its policy of limiting its support to Ukraine to non-lethal supplies. “It’s absurd that two parties with a history of launching wars of invasion — the Korean War and the war in Ukraine — are now vowing mutual military cooperation on the premise of a preemptive attack by the international community that will never happen,” the office of South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, said.

We'll see what this "reconsideration" yields. For now it's just a strongly-worded statement

Meanwhile, the U.S. is 'concerned' by the reports of DPRK soldiers fighting on behalf of Russia. The White House says it cannot independently confirm reports that North Kores has been a supplier of troops to Russia in Ukraine: John Kirby: "... Those reports are concerning to us. This idea of North Korean soldiers fighting on behalf of Russia, we believe, if true, would mark a significant increase in the DPRK and the Russia defense relationship: a relationship, I would remind that we've been talking about now for many months, as burgeoning and growing and deepening. And this, if true, would represent a significant deepening of that relationship. It would also, if true... indicate what I think can only be classified as a new level of desperation by Putin as he continues to try to make progress in Ukraine. Again, I'm not confirming the reporting, but I think it's important to put it in some context. I mean, if it's true, it's coming at a time when Russia continues to suffer extraordinary — in fact, I'd go so far as to say historic levels — of casualties in a modern conflict. I mean more than thousands casualties per day just in recent months. So it would be important, again, if true, to keep it in to keep it in that context"

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Several smaller nations are sending hardware to Ukraine, Planes from Denmark, now South Korea has indicated support and Australia today gifted 49 Abrams Tanks. All that hardware will have to be replaced with new kit mostly sourced from the USA. More money to the USA, the net cost of this war is much less than the opponents like to suggest.

The US leans on the small nations to help. "OK, BUT" they respond. "Well" replies the US "we will be guarantors of the loans required for replacements - but only American approved replacements."
 
Putin has always placed a high priority on regime preservation. So why did he start this hopeless pointless war? Why do the one thing that could possibly destabilize his regime? What does he want badly enough to take that risk?
 
Australia is providing 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.This package of military aid is valued at approximately $245 million. It's likely going to be a while before they get to Ukraine as they're going to be refurbished in the USA first, but get to Ukraine they will, and 49 Abrams is no small thing.

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The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $425 million. This package includes additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles (HMMWV's), and critical munitions. All standard stuff that Ukraine needs every month simply to keep on fighting. No Bradley's. No Abrams. No Patriot systems. This is a straightforward logistical resupply package, sad to say. The Biden Administration drip-feeding support to the end.

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Aaaaaaaand....this is what happens when you fail to abide by your commitments to other countries. Thanks Biden. We exchanged Ukraine's nuclear weapons for security guarantees. We have failed to honor those security guarantees. Ukraine will go nuke as a direct consequence, and other countries such as Taiwan, who now understand they can no longer rely on the USA, will also go nuclear as a direct consequence.

Elections have consequences, and electing Biden has destabilized the world. We've never needed Trump more.

Zelenskyy tells Trump that Ukraine will have either nuclear weapons or NATO membership

 
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