For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Lazaran]

Fortunately for Putin he can look forward to Trump and his fan club riding to his rescue and handing Russia a victory.

RussiaGuide is the President of that fan club.

*nods*

 

[ll74]

Russia warns Japan over providing Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine​

A move by Japan to provide Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine will have "grave consequences" for Russia-Japan ties, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine​

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

The article relies heavily on unnamed sources - “a Biden administration official”, a “European diplomat based in Washington“, and “confirmed by a senior administration official“ - but if true it’s a major policy reverse.

 

[ll74]

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine​

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

The article relies heavily on unnamed sources - “a Biden administration official”, a “European diplomat based in Washington“, and “confirmed by a senior administration official“ - but if true it’s a major policy reverse.

ReichGad has said this started last year.

Guess he is just ahead of the game.

 

[LLCox]

Zelensky or his propagandists crack me up...

" I am grateful to our air force for the spectacular replenishment of the Russian Black Sea submarine fleet with another vessel."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...stroyed-russian-tank-landing-ship/ar-AA1m2axX

 

[Rightguide]

It doesn’t suit your politically locked in position, but the bottom line is Russia has lost thousands of main battle tanks and heavy equipment - besides the men that go with it - and is fucked for years as a serious fighting force. All this from a 3 day operation to crush a supposedly weak neighbour.

So with all of that Russian carnage how come Ukraine hasn't taken back any territory and pushed the Russians out of the Donbas?

The plan to put a stop to NATO expansion has gone so well that Finland and Sweden are now in NATO. Right now, those two on their own could be in Moscow in a week if they wanted.

If that is true, all we need is for Finland and Sweden to defend Europe on their own. If they did drive toward Moscow, you think the Russians wouldn't nuke them as soon as they crossed the border?

The cost of this will start landing on the Russian people this financial year.

Here's a little education for you:

The IMF predicts that Russia's GDP will grow in 2023, unlike the UK economy0. The Kremlin claims that sanctions are ineffective, but there is a qualitative as well as quantitative effect. Sanctions have radically changed the modus operandi of the Russian government's economic bloc, but not in a good way.1 The Russian economy is growing a bit, but it is due to massive investments in its military, with 30% of public expenditure now on the military, nearly 10% of GDP.2
consilium.europa.eu
0
carnegieendowment.org
1
euronews.com
2

No NATO deaths involved, and most of what’s been required is military kit that was heading for de-commissioning.

Nato has 31 member states, all with independent national security interests. If war did break out in Europe Nato unity would be like herding cats. A ground war with Russia will not be a conventional war it will be a nuclear war. Who in those 31 Nato states wants that?

Fortunately for Putin he can look forward to Trump and his fan club riding to his rescue and handing Russia a victory.

In the above, you showcase your absolute brainwashed mental condition.

 

[ShandyLeer]

So with all of that Russian carnage how come Ukraine hasn't taken back any territory and pushed the Russians out of the Donbas?

If that is true, all we need is for Finland and Sweden to defend Europe on their own. If they did drive toward Moscow, you think the Russians wouldn't nuke them as soon as they crossed the border?

Here's a little education for you:

The IMF predicts that Russia's GDP will grow in 2023, unlike the UK economy0. The Kremlin claims that sanctions are ineffective, but there is a qualitative as well as quantitative effect. Sanctions have radically changed the modus operandi of the Russian government's economic bloc, but not in a good way.1 The Russian economy is growing a bit, but it is due to massive investments in its military, with 30% of public expenditure now on the military, nearly 10% of GDP.2
consilium.europa.eu
0
carnegieendowment.org
1
euronews.com
2

Nato has 31 member states, all with independent national security interests. If war did break out in Europe Nato unity would be like herding cats. A ground war with Russia will not be a conventional war it will be a nuclear war. Who in those 31 Nato states wants that?

In the above, you showcase your absolute brainwashed mental condition.

They haven’t regained the territory because they’ve fought each other to a stalemate for now - obviously.

The Russians are willing to grind the meat, and the Ukrainians have been sustained with enough to hold the line so far.

I mean, which way do you want it ? You’ve told us the Ukranians have no chance, but simultaneously that they’re failing having not smashed through a dug in enemy who had months to prepare defensive lines.

 

[ll74]

They haven’t regained the territory because they’ve fought each other to a stalemate for now - obviously.

The Russians are willing to grind the meat, and the Ukrainians have been sustained with enough to hold the line so far.

I mean, which way do you want it ? You’ve told us the Ukranians have no chance, but simultaneously that they’re failing having not smashed through a dug in enemy who had months to prepare defensive lines.

Interesting how he ignores that Ukraine fought off multiple attacks from multiple fronts and pushed the Russian army back to the East.

I guess he only sees an offensive push as a victory.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Interesting how he ignores that Ukraine fought off multiple attacks from multiple fronts and pushed the Russian army back to the East.

I guess he only sees an offensive push as a victory.

Putin signs his pay cheques, need I say anything else?

 

[ll74]

Ukraine is hitting inside Russia to diminishilitary production. Russia has also called for an emergency UN Security.Council meeting in response.

Ukraine war: Missile and drone attacks launched against Russia

more than 70 drones were used in a series of attacks on Russia and only military targets were attacked. They added that a group of drones successfully hit a electronic factory in the Bryansk region used to make Russian military equipment like long-range missiles and anti-aircraft systems.

The strikes come after Russia launched a massive bombardment across Ukraine, killing 39 people and injuring nearly 160. Several cities were hit, including the capital, Kyiv.

Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitchsko said on Saturday that at least 16 people were killed in the city, making it the deadliest so far for civilians in the capital.

 

[Rightguide]

They haven’t regained the territory because they’ve fought each other to a stalemate for now - obviously.

No, they haven't regained the territory because they aren't capable of doing so for all of the reasons I have stated for months now. Just the day before yesterday on the 29th the Russians launched the largest air raid of the war, 122 ballistic missiles and 38 drones hitting targets all across Ukraine. You can go here https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2023 to see the ISW's more detailed assessment of the raid, and note as well that the ISW spends most of its time over the last couple of years putting lipstick on the Ukrainian's situational pig.

The Russians are willing to grind the meat, and the Ukrainians have been sustained with enough to hold the line so far.

Not really they've lost hundreds of thousands of casualties like the Russians have but the problem is attrition. There is no way the Ukrainians are going to win a war of attrition with a nuclear power that has four times their population.

I mean, which way do you want it ? You’ve told us the Ukranians have no chance, but simultaneously that they’re failing having not smashed through a dug in enemy who had months to prepare defensive lines.

It's not how I want it, it's how it is. The Ukrainians have thrown the flower of their youth against an impenetrable triple-layered defensive scheme the likes of which haven't been seen since WWII, using WWII tactics that we told them would not succeed. They threw out the concepts of combined warfare we tried to train them in. The Biden administration's error was in believing this training could be accomplished in weeks and months instead of years.

Warfare has changed in the last 80 years, technology has changed. We, the United States, haven't fought a peer opponent since WWII. We've been successful against Third World adversaries, our technologies have allowed us to engage enemies with smaller ground forces in the theater. Our forces are however risk and casualty-adverse which drives our technological advance but as we see now our technology advance is being challenged in the field against the Russians, a peer opponent:

DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Russia is jamming US precision weapons in Ukraine, US general says​

General also highlighted Russia’s “very adaptive” forces.​

BY SAM SKOVE
STAFF WRITER
DECEMBER 12, 2023


The tactical advantages that various U.S. precision munitions brought to Ukraine have been eroded by enemy jamming, the U.S. Army commander in charge of those efforts said Tuesday.

Jamming of some of “our more precise capabilities is a challenge,” said Lt. Gen. Antonio Aguto, speaking via video link from Europe at an event organized by the Army’s Program Executive Office for Command, Control and Communications-Tactical.

Since December 2022, Aguto has led Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, the umbrella organization for coordinating allied military aid to Ukraine.

Unidentified U.S. defense officials previously told CNN that Russia was jamming U.S.-provided precision missiles, causing them to go astray. U.S. and Ukrainian forces consequently had to create workarounds, such as modifying the rocket launchers. Russia then modified its jamming, forcing the U.S. to again find counter-measures.

Such weapons, such as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, once provided Ukraine with a key advantage on the battlefield by pushing Russian ammunition depots back beyond their range.

https://www.defenseone.com/defense-...ision-weapons-ukraine-us-general-says/392707/

The whole article contains links to more detailed reporting on jamming, capabilities, etc. In a nutshell, it all spells doom for Ukraine. The logistical mathematics and battlefield reality do not support a Ukrainian victory.

 

[Rightguide]

Ukraine is hitting inside Russia to diminishilitary production. Russia has also called for an emergency UN Security.Council meeting in response.

Ukraine war: Missile and drone attacks launched against Russia

It's all for naught.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

It's all for naught.

It’s increasingly unlikely that Ukraine will push Russia out without major concessions. It’s unfortunate because victory looked so promising in the early days.

 

[ll74]

It’s increasingly unlikely that Ukraine will push Russia out without major concessions. It’s unfortunate because victory looked so promising in the early days.

Keeping Russia from taking the country was a victory. People seem to ignore that. Russia attacked from multiple entry points into kyiv

 

[Fuzzy1975]

It’s increasingly unlikely that Ukraine will push Russia out without major concessions. It’s unfortunate because victory looked so promising in the early days.

Neither side has the materials to make gains in either direction. Ukraine didn't have the means to be successful this year on their counter attack. They needed pilots and planes. Russia, through their WW! human waves attacks and poor use of armour is now decimated in modern equipment and are relying on inexperienced manpower and 1980's and older ground equipment.

With the F-16 Ukraine will be on par with Russia. Russia has gone through most of their air attack helicopters (K-52), around 100 fixed wing types, none of which can be replaced in time. Russia produces 3 or 4 K-52's a year as an example. They had 56 and are down to under 20.

Russia is running out of time economically, and can't sped up internal manufacturing even though they have swung to a war economy. Without the support of Iran, N Korea and China they would already be in major trouble.

If the western allies don't abandon Ukraine, and Ukraine can maintain its military numbers, they can push Russia out of Crimea next year, which would be enough to force Putin to negotiate a withdrawal.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Keeping Russia from taking the country was a victory. People seem to ignore that. Russia attacked from multiple entry points into kyiv

They have fought valiantly. I expect them to preserve what has not been taken and recoup some of what has been lost, but I’m doubtful Ukraine will return to its pre-war borders. American and European leaders were overly cautious and indecisive in the early days. Fear of escalation loomed large. I fear window to hammer Russia with enough force to send them home with tails between their legs has passed.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Neither side has the materials to make gains in either direction. Ukraine didn't have the means to be successful this year on their counter attack. They needed pilots and planes. Russia, through their WW! human waves attacks and poor use of armour is now decimated in modern equipment and are relying on inexperienced manpower and 1980's and older ground equipment.

With the F-16 Ukraine will be on par with Russia. Russia has gone through most of their air attack helicopters (K-52), around 100 fixed wing types, none of which can be replaced in time. Russia produces 3 or 4 K-52's a year as an example. They had 56 and are down to under 20.

Russia is running out of time economically, and can't sped up internal manufacturing even though they have swung to a war economy. Without the support of Iran, N Korea and China they would already be in major trouble.

If the western allies don't abandon Ukraine, and Ukraine can maintain its military numbers, they can push Russia out of Crimea next year, which would be enough to force Putin to negotiate a withdrawal.

I share your hopes but my optimism is far more tempered than yours. I don’t see the level of commitment and resolve needed from NATO countries, including the US. Hope I’m wrong and will happily admit it if I am.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

They have fought valiantly. I expect them to preserve what has not been taken and recoup some of what has been lost, but I’m doubtful Ukraine will return to its pre-war borders. American and European leaders were overly cautious and indecisive in the early days. Fear of escalation loomed large. I fear window to hammer Russia with enough force to send them home with tails between their legs has passed.

I have faith in the will power of the Ukraine's. There is a small segment of Ukraine which would accept a Russian take over, but the vast majority would not. Which would lead to a very troubled state reminiscent of Northern Ireland or Afghanistan. So I think Putin loses, if not in the near term, then in the long term.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

I share your hopes but my optimism is far more tempered than yours. I don’t see the level of commitment and resolve needed from NATO countries, including the US. Hope I’m wrong and will happily admit it if I am.

I agree with you. Countries such as German and Poland are stepping up to the plate (finally) but they can't offer the support (materials and manufacturing) the US can. But when countries like Pakistan are now contributing to Ukraine with artillery shells, it give me a bit of hope that the west won't abandon them.

 

[RobDownSouth]

They have fought valiantly. I expect them to preserve what has not been taken and recoup some of what has been lost, but I’m doubtful Ukraine will return to its pre-war borders.

I will respectfully disagree. Ukrainians have been fighting tooth-and-nail for well over a year now and I think that anything less than re-occupying Russian-held Ukraine territory will be seen as a "loss" within the country.

 

[ShandyLeer]

No, they haven't regained the territory because they aren't capable of doing so for all of the reasons I have stated for months now. Just the day before yesterday on the 29th the Russians launched the largest air raid of the war, 122 ballistic missiles and 38 drones hitting targets all across Ukraine. You can go here https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2023 to see the ISW's more detailed assessment of the raid, and note as well that the ISW spends most of its time over the last couple of years putting lipstick on the Ukrainian's situational pig.


Not really they've lost hundreds of thousands of casualties like the Russians have but the problem is attrition. There is no way the Ukrainians are going to win a war of attrition with a nuclear power that has four times their population.

It's not how I want it, it's how it is. The Ukrainians have thrown the flower of their youth against an impenetrable triple-layered defensive scheme the likes of which haven't been seen since WWII, using WWII tactics that we told them would not succeed. They threw out the concepts of combined warfare we tried to train them in. The Biden administration's error was in believing this training could be accomplished in weeks and months instead of years.

Warfare has changed in the last 80 years, technology has changed. We, the United States, haven't fought a peer opponent since WWII. We've been successful against Third World adversaries, our technologies have allowed us to engage enemies with smaller ground forces in the theater. Our forces are however risk and casualty-adverse which drives our technological advance but as we see now our technology advance is being challenged in the field against the Russians, a peer opponent:

DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Russia is jamming US precision weapons in Ukraine, US general says​

General also highlighted Russia’s “very adaptive” forces.​

BY SAM SKOVE
STAFF WRITER
DECEMBER 12, 2023


The tactical advantages that various U.S. precision munitions brought to Ukraine have been eroded by enemy jamming, the U.S. Army commander in charge of those efforts said Tuesday.

Jamming of some of “our more precise capabilities is a challenge,” said Lt. Gen. Antonio Aguto, speaking via video link from Europe at an event organized by the Army’s Program Executive Office for Command, Control and Communications-Tactical.

Since December 2022, Aguto has led Security Assistance Group-Ukraine, the umbrella organization for coordinating allied military aid to Ukraine.

Unidentified U.S. defense officials previously told CNN that Russia was jamming U.S.-provided precision missiles, causing them to go astray. U.S. and Ukrainian forces consequently had to create workarounds, such as modifying the rocket launchers. Russia then modified its jamming, forcing the U.S. to again find counter-measures.

Such weapons, such as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, once provided Ukraine with a key advantage on the battlefield by pushing Russian ammunition depots back beyond their range.

https://www.defenseone.com/defense-...ision-weapons-ukraine-us-general-says/392707/

The whole article contains links to more detailed reporting on jamming, capabilities, etc. In a nutshell, it all spells doom for Ukraine. The logistical mathematics and battlefield reality do not support a Ukrainian victory.

It’s pointless.

I asked you a simple question - namely how do you maintain credibility when your argument
is that the UKR simultaneously both never had a hope and yet have “failed” in not defeating the Russians.

For some reason you’ve replied with a technical argument about how some western weapon systems are occassionally getting jammed.

This is ludicrous, on at least two counts.

First, of course the fucking Russians have learned some countermeasures.

Only an idiot would assume otherwise - it’s what happens. As you’ve indicated they’re not a third rank power. You’d expect them to demonstrate some capacity to adapt.

And second in that it‘s got next to nothing do with my question.

It’s not clear why you believe the Ukrainians have no right to self determination, or to resist the same sort of unprovoked invasion that sovereign countries have always had the right, and arguably the obligation, to fight back against.

You seem to hold them in contempt for having the temerity to even try.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Newsweek reports the U.S. may soon scrap hundreds of ATACMS—at "significant" expense to taxpayers—that could instead be sent to Ukraine.

The U.S. has sent around 20 ATACMS so far, The New York Times reported, citing two Western officials. These missiles were used "immediately and with great effect" by Ukraine, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told Newsweek.

Hundreds of Lockheed Martin-made M39 and M39A1 missiles that are "excellent legal, precision-guided cluster weapons" are scheduled for destruction at "significant" expense to American taxpayers, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-atacms-missiles-cluster-munitions-expiry-date-1857108

 

[jomar]

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine​

For two years, Biden and Zelenskyy have been focused on driving Russia from Ukraine. Now Washington is discussing a move to a more defensive posture.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

The article relies heavily on unnamed sources - “a Biden administration official”, a “European diplomat based in Washington“, and “confirmed by a senior administration official“ - but if true it’s a major policy reverse.

I wonder why that might be. Perhaps we need a vote.

…

The IMF predicts that Russia's GDP will grow in 2023, unlike the UK economy0. The Kremlin claims that sanctions are ineffective, but there is a qualitative as well as quantitative effect. Sanctions have radically changed the modus operandi of the Russian government's economic bloc, but not in a good way.1 The Russian economy is growing a bit, but it is due to massive investments in its military, with 30% of public expenditure now on the military, nearly 10% of GDP.2

Sanctions have essentially forced the oligarchs to plow money back into Russia, not the military though, so there’s that angle.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Newsweek reports the U.S. may soon scrap hundreds of ATACMS—at "significant" expense to taxpayers—that could instead be sent to Ukraine.

The U.S. has sent around 20 ATACMS so far, The New York Times reported, citing two Western officials. These missiles were used "immediately and with great effect" by Ukraine, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told Newsweek.

Hundreds of Lockheed Martin-made M39 and M39A1 missiles that are "excellent legal, precision-guided cluster weapons" are scheduled for destruction at "significant" expense to American taxpayers, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-atacms-missiles-cluster-munitions-expiry-date-1857108

This may be the real reason,

These M39 missiles add a range, accuracy and lethality that Ukraine does not have without this donation,"

The US is still shy about giving weapons that could allow Ukraine to attack too deep into Russia. While I do personally believe Zelinsky would not
allow them to be used outside of tradition Ukraine territory, there is an election in Ukraine this year, and hypothetically speaking a different leader may just decide to hit Russia directly.

 

[RandyRebecca]

Biden is a fool for provoking that proxy war in Ukraine.