Bramblethorn
Sleep-deprived
- Joined
- Feb 16, 2012
- Posts
- 17,772
You're wrong. I just read a really interesting article about what we can learn about the publishing business from the Penguin v. DOJ antitrust case, and it talks extensively about this. Publishers are constantly looking for the next big thing and doing their best to create them, of course, but their hit rate is low: a book doesn't become a smash hit just because of a marketing push. The successes are mostly serendipitous, more or less unpredictable phenomena.
I was about to mention that same case. From what was disclosed there, most fiction books are published at a loss, by publishers gambling on finding the one that makes it big. Obviously they will choose to plug some books more heavily than others, and no doubt that affects sales, but the evidence discussed in that article doesn't paint a picture of an industry where publishers can reliably choose what's going to be a bestseller.
From that article:
The DOJ’s lawyer collected data on 58,000 titles published in a year and discovered that 90 percent of them sold fewer than 2,000 copies and 50 percent sold less than a dozen copies.
When one considers all the costs involved in getting a book onto shelves, that's not remotely profitable. I recently edited a non-fiction book for a well-known publisher; they'll need to sell about 200 copies just to cover my contract, even ignoring the cost of printing and distributing those copies. Granted what I do is specialised work and priced higher than general fiction editing would be. But even for something generic that can be offshored at low rates, selling 2000 copies isn't likely to leave any kind of margin.
If publishers could tell up front which ones were going to be bestsellers, they wouldn't be publishing that unprofitable 90%.