For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ChloeTzang]

Zelenskyy won't recognize US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia that exclude Ukraine​

“Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no result,” the Ukrainian President told journalists. Kyiv was not informed about and will not recognize planned negotiations between US and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia since there will be no Ukrainian representatives present, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Trump declined to recognize Ukraine as an equal participant in peace negotiations. I suspect Trump is in for some disappointment here. This ain't gonna work they way he thinks it will.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02...ssia-talks-in-saudi-arabia-excluding-ukraine/

 

[ChloeTzang]

Putin’s Army Is Falling Apart – Is This the Breaking Point?​

 

[ChloeTzang]

Germany’s Helsing to deliver 6,000 HX-2 strike drones to Ukraine

Helsing, the German defense technology company, has announced the production of 6,000 HX-2 strike drones for delivery to Ukraine. This follows a previous order of 4,000 HF-1 strike drones, which are currently being delivered in partnership with Ukrainian industry. Unveiled in late 2024, the HX-2 is an electrically propelled X-wing precision munition with a range of up to 100 kilometers. The drone features advanced onboard artificial intelligence, enabling full resistance to electronic warfare tactics. When integrated with Helsing’s Altra reconnaissance-strike software, multiple HX-2 drones can operate as a coordinated swarm, controlled by a single operator. Designed for mass production at a significantly lower unit cost than conventional weapons, the HX-2 is intended to address the growing need for precision-strike capabilities in modern land warfare.

Helsing’s initiative aligns with ongoing efforts to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities, with European nations increasingly supporting drone warfare advancements. The HX-2, designed for rapid deployment and adaptability, represents a new phase in unmanned aerial warfare, with mass production capabilities potentially reshaping modern battlefield dynamics.

Even considering Ukraine is producing more than 200,000 drones a month itself, this is a not insignificant contribution, and it is only one amongst many, with other countries also delivering thousands of drones to Ukraine.

https://defence-blog.com/germanys-h...ukraine/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

[ll74]

Yep, it sounds like that. I hope not.

Your hope is wasted. Your guy fucked em

 

[ChloeTzang]

This is the map Russia is sharing in social media platforms, calling for victory and saying those are the borders after the peace agreement with their partners from the USA.

I doubt this is how things will play out, but it does illustrate all too well that Putin and Russia are not at all interested in genuine negotiations.

 

[ll74]

This is the map Russia is sharing in social media platforms, calling for victory and saying those are the borders after the peace agreement with their partners from the USA.

I doubt this is how things will play out, but it does illustrate all too well that Putin and Russia are not at all interested in genuine negotiations.

View attachment 2496493

47 will use this map in negotiations.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Of course Trump says he will allow Europe to buy US weapons for Ukraine

US President Donald Trump has said that he is ready to allow Europe to buy US-made weapons to be transferred to Ukraine. It seems to be tied to the peace negotiantions but who knows....Maybe Trump should just return the nukes to Ukraine.

What this is all illustrating though is that like North Korean and Iran, and country which wishes NOT be to invaded needs nuclear weapons.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/17/7498664/

 

[ChloeTzang]

US Envoy for Russo-Ukrainian war says US will not impose peace deal on Ukraine​

Kellogg believes that both Russia and Ukraine are ready to end hostilities, as neither side can achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield. He told journalists that it seems that both sides want to "exit the game".

He's delusional. Putin only wants a temporary ceasefire so he can rebuild the Russian military and have another go round.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/17/7498802/

 

[Rightguide]

John Mac Ghlionn wrote a great piece for The Hill about the comedian-turned-president:

“Overnight, the media transformed him into the embodiment of courage, the Churchill of Kyiv, the man who refused to flee, the warrior standing against tyranny. But what if this narrative is entirely false? What if Zelensky, rather than being the hero in this story, is actually the man who won’t allow the war to end — not for the good of his people, but because peace would mean his own downfall?”

“It is no coincidence that as Ukraine’s battlefield prospects worsen, as soldiers defect, as forced conscription spirals into something resembling kidnapping, Zelensky has once again extended martial law. No elections. No peace talks. No escape. Because if the war ends, so does his presidency. And this, more than anything, explains why the war must go on.”

“Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, Zelensky had banned several opposition parties, banned certain media outlets and postponed elections with the justification that wartime voting is “impossible.” Impossible for whom? For the soldiers in the trenches, or for the civilians now living under indefinite martial law?

[…] And yet the war must continue. It is the only thing keeping Zelensky in power. If he were to call elections, he would likely lose. Support for him is falling. The longer this drags on, the more obvious it becomes that Ukraine cannot win — not in any meaningful sense. This is not 2022. The optimism of those early months, when the world believed Ukraine might push Russia back, is gone. Even the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest backer, is slowly dialing down support, with Washington insiders admitting that a total Ukrainian victory is no longer the goal.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ensky-can-t-afford-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1z7ICe

 

[Lazaran]

Donald Trump negotiated the surrender deal of the USA to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the later withdrawal executed with mind boggling incompetence by Biden's people.

That example does not bode well for Ukraine, but this time Trump will get top billing for the whole shit show.

You’re right about DonOld, but WRONG about the withdrawal effort.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan (under unprecedentedly difficult / challenging conditions) was a magnificent achievement by President Biden’s administration and the amazing service members of the U.S. armed forces, and it was the CORRECT decision.

Please educate yourself before commenting.

TIA

 

[ChloeTzang]

".....Even the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest backer, is slowly dialing down support, with Washington insiders admitting that a total Ukrainian victory is no longer the goal.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ensky-can-t-afford-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1z7ICe

Should read "no longer the American goal." We know it was never Biden's. The aid the Biden Administration provided was never enough to allow Ukraine to win, and he cut of aid at critical junctures, ensuring Ukraine suffered unnecessary defeats. The only real battlefield success Ukraine has achieved (Kursk) was achieved because Ukraine DID NOT share any info with the USA and kept it secret. Lets not pretend that a Ukraine victory was ever something that the Biden Admin wanted, and Zelensky and Ukraine understand that very clearly. Trump is just continuing Biden's policy, albeit he is articulating it openly and bluntly.

Of course, in articulating it openly, Trump has gone ahead and confirmed what Biden had been making plain. America is no longer a reliable partner, and other countries had better start looking after their own defense spending and not sheltering under the arms of the US Taxpayer. In Europe, that means the EU needs to front up fast and increase their military spending and preparedness. With the exception of Finland, Poland and Sweden, their militaries are a joke. This has to terrify the fuck out of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania too, as well as states like Romania. Given Russia's nuclear threats over Ukraine, it also raises the possibility that other countries may decide they need their own nuclear umbrella. Ukraine decidedly included.

Trump has also been very clear that it's up to Ukraine to accept the result of his negotiations as well. Given the way these have been conducted so far, it seems likely that he will walk away from supporting Ukraine if these are not accepted. They likely won't be acceptable. Given also that he's not prepared to put substantial American boots on the ground by way of guarantees, and also that he and Biden have proved the 1992 Budapest agreement to be a worthless piece of paper, I can't see Ukraine accepting any paper guarantees. "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me," pretty much applies here.

Nope, Trump looks to be looking for an excuse to walk away, just when Putin is being pushed back and will soon be on the ropes. With stepped up and far more urgent EU support (now there's the big question) Ukraine can keep on fighting this war without American help, but this will be at the cost of America and Europe going their separate ways, and that means when it comes to China, America will be on it's own. Look now also to see Taiwan going nuclear. They almost did once before. And if South Korea, Japan and Australia are smart, they'll move towards an accommodation with China. There's going to be a lot of additional defense spending coming up and realpolitik will be taking the front seat....

The Fourth Turning indeed......

 

[ChloeTzang]

Team Trump Appeases As Ukraine Dismantles An Empire

This is going to be a week certain to be remembered as a turning point in world history. There doesn’t appear to be any going back now: Trump’s foreign policy team is clearly bound and determined to pull him down a dead end road for their own self-serving ends. Just like Biden’s. You won’t find a more classic case of a shock shattering a rigidity trap and sending a system into abject collapse. America’s idiot leaders haven’t a clue what they’ve unleashed on themselves.

They also have no idea what happens when Europe, the most vicious and warlike region on the planet, wakes up the way Ukraine has. And that awakening has now come. Europe will remilitarize, and the EU as a single entity is larger and with a lot more industry than the USA. Combine that with a political move to the right (Meloni in Italy. the AfD in Germany. LePen in France and Farage in the UK) and things will change regardless of who is and isn't in power. This week, several of Trump’s people all but confirmed that they really don’t care about NATO, China, or even making America great - and Europe is taking note. At last. It isn’t even that Trump called Putin or talked about Ukraine becoming russia someday that’s at issue. It’s the ridiculous statements about negotiations, NATO, and Europe by Trump’s foreign policy appointees that have done permanent damage. Also doing negotiations next week with Moscow without Europe or Ukraine there - that’s an egregious own goal.

Summing up the Trump Doctrine that is emerging, despite the standard efforts by those responsible to partially walk back the most damaging comments once Trump’s political team briefs him on the implications of what his policy team is doing:

• No NATO for Ukraine, ever.
• No return of territories seized by Moscow since 2014, and probably not 2022.
• No real security guarantees for Ukraine.
• God knows what else will be thrown into the mix
• Europe has to spend 5% of GDP on defense and take over responsibility for its own security.
• Everyone from now on will basically do what D.C. wants when it comes to China… just because.

Adopting Putin’s starting position in negotiations about Ukraine is the kind of opening move that screams exploit me more! It’s all part of their attempt to pretend they’re simultaneously pro-peace but also want a forever war with Iran and China. Now, in principle, nothing that Trump’s subordinates said this week actually means a damn thing. Biden constantly insisted that he backed Ukraine, yet perpetually neglected to give Kyiv the tools to do more than fend off the enemy - often, not even that much. And I’m not only referring to the six month gap in aid deliveries last year, but the many months that Biden was in office before Putin’s all-out assault began.

The clown car parade in D.C. stands in stark contrast - as usual - to what the Ukrainians are achieving on the ground every day. Moscow’s winter campaign has weakened to the point that Ukraine has started launching sustained organized counterattacks on multiple fronts. These don’t yet amount to more than opportunistic strikes that seek local level advantages as Ukraine holds off the orc tide, but the shift in posture is visible and noteworthy. Media hype about negotiations somehow ending the war in Ukraine this spring is, as ever, incredibly premature - especially when Trump’s people have just validated Putin’s long game. The trouble for Moscow and D.C. is that Ukraine doesn’t have to accept any sort of bad deal as long as Europe stands firm.

The Europeans already provide half of the military aid that Ukraine gets and, unlike the US, have been ramping up military production for three years. Some material has to be bought from US stocks, but there’s no way Trump will turn down hard cash for surplus military equipment that will otherwise have to be destroyed. On the contrary, Ukraine’s posture is now shifting decidedly towards the expectation that there will be a lot of hard fighting this year. A brief Easter ceasefire for show is possible - but far less likely now, thanks to Team Trump’s ineptitude - and might even be to Ukraine’s advantage as the rain and mud of spring makes drone operations more challenging. If a ceasefire is tried (doubtful), something will happen that one side or the other decides is too egregious to ignore. And Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive stands to be sharp and vicious. In a sense, Team Trump’s enabling of Putin may encourage the latter to double down on an already disastrous battlefield approach. And with America's posture shifting, against all common sense, towards open betrayal of Ukraine, neither Ukraine nor Europe has any reason to hold back.

At best, Trump can now hope for a brief show ceasefire. After that, the Ukraine War will be right back to where it started: the USA has to put up or shut up.

Better for Ukraine and Europe face Putin now, before the full consequences of American betrayal are felt, than to wait. Yes, the US has capabilities that Europe lacks - but outside of heavy airlift, something the US needs more than Europe because it’s so far from its allies, most can be filled by relying on commercial sources. Lots of European companies operate excellent satellite networks. And right now the European economy has a lot more slack than America’s.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Fronts.

Ukraine War 2025: Week 7 Fronts Overview

Whether the motivation is a sense of Moscow’s latest winter campaign having bogged down (very likely), a desire to look strong before negotiations (possible), Syrskyi’s tenure as commander-in-chief entering its second year (maybe), his appointee Drapatyi taking charge of key fronts (likely), something else (probably), or a combination of factors (definitely), the past couple weeks have seen what looked at first like fairly straightforward local counterattacks evolve into something more sustained. Kursk and Pokrovsk have seen the most Ukrainian activity in this regard, but the Kostiantynivka front and portions of the northern Donbas region have also marked an uptick in more aggressive actions.

While there is little hard evidence at this stage, it does seem that the weakening orc offensive on most fronts has allowed a portion of Ukraine’s forces to rest. As one example, the experienced 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which was finally forced out of Vuhledar in 2024 after at least a year and a half of holding the town, has apparently been in Kherson since at least December, only its attached drone battalion known to be actively engaged in operations. All or portions of several other brigades are likely being built up and given new gear. This will be the result of painful sacrifices made by members of the newer 140 and 150 series brigades.

It’s a bit early to divine any shifts in Ukrainian tactics, but a shift towards rapid and intensive operations aimed at narrow sectors is palpable. Presumably, substantial drone reconnaissance precedes and strike support accompanies major movements, along with heavy electronic warfare. The goal of any push is to deliver enough infantry to a target area using armored vehicles to hold out against Russian counterattacks. Drone attacks behind the front help isolate targeted Russian positions, preventing their reinforcement and interrupting proper support. When Russian supporting elements go into action, drones and artillery hunt them down.

Two or three simultaneous short thrusts by company-strength elements can penetrate four or five kilometers into enemy positions then consolidate. It doesn’t appear that the Russians are used to their assault troops taking a punch as they build up ahead of the next push forward. Disorganization and the lack of effective training most Russian assault soldiers receive allows Ukrainian forces to consolidate positions and withdraw their armored vehicles before enemy drones infest the skies again. From there, it’s another standard defensive fight in a tactical sense, localized operations nearby taking advantage of the enemy’s preoccupation.

Northern Theater

In Kursk, Ukraine’s ongoing attacks southeast of Sudzha haven’t advanced nearly as quickly as at first, but that’s to be expected. The Russins are still visibly unsettled by Ukraine’s push and have not been able to effectively counter it. What they are doing is attempting to hit the other flank of Ukraine’s defenses in Kursk, to the west near Sverdlikovo. This adds further credence to the theory that Ukraine’s counteroffensive on the east flank of Kursk mainly aims to prevent a coordinated attack. Punching east can also secure some additional breathing room for Ukrainian supplies entering Sudzha along the R200 highway coming in from Sumy. North Koreans are reportedly on the front lines in Kursk again, this time operating in smaller formations. Gosh, North Korean generals, pretending that it’s still 1953 didn’t work so well? Who’d have thought?

The fighting in Kursk seems certain to intensify again in the near future, especially with Zelensky throwing down a clever gauntlet by suggesting that Free Kursk could be swapped for Ukrainian territory in negotiations. That sounded like a concession, but in fact pointed a dagger at Putin’s chest, because the beating heart of Putin’s assault on Ukraine, the thing that legitimates the horrendous cost in the terms that matter to his perverse system, is that Ukraine doesn’t really exist. You can’t swap territory with a non-entity. Hence Putin’s desire to negotiate directly with Trump and without Zelensky.

As Hitler negotiated the Munich Pact of 1938, fully intending to violate it at the first opportunity - the same as he did the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that divided Europe between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany in 1939 - so does Putin hope to bluff Trump into accepting a stupid deal that exposes Trump to future humiliation. Putin is already at war with NATO: his choices are now surrender or victory. Meanwhile, down on the Kharkiv front, Moscow continues to lack the force to do more than probe Ukrainian lines. That is good, because the Dvorichna bridgehead north of Kupiansk has lately been the one bright spot in the faltering Russian winter campaign.

Eastern Theater

The situation on the Kupiansk front is far from critical, but still tends to worsen by the day. Moscow’s troops are still filtering over the Oskil and infesting Dvorichna, expanding their bridgehead along the river bank to the north. If this keeps going, by late spring Ukraine might need to seriously reinforce this area. That could actually turn out well, if Ukraine found an opportunity to push across the border, Kursk style, and seize the logistics node at Valuyki.

So far, reports suggest that only infantry are across the Oskil in force, the perimeter of the bridgehead expanding as more soldiers are ferried in by boat. The fog you tend to get in a river valley during winter probably makes it difficult for drones to lock the area down as happens further south. Infiltrating through gaps in Ukraine’s coverage slows operations down, and in the short run, it’s difficult to completely halt progress. The flip side is that as supplies of key enabling gear, like armored vehicles, run low, each individual Russian attack wave gets a bit weaker, on average.

Moscow did adapt its fight to better match reality in 2023, but this shift has reached hard limits. Ukraine has adapted too, and so far Moscow lacks an effective answer to Ukrainian drones. Small wonder Putin is desperate to con Trump into forcing Ukraine to make peace. Too bad so few American leaders have the vision to see the opportunity Moscow’s incredible weakness presents.

South of Kupiansk, the Borova-***** area - Donbas North - remains an area where the Russians continue to seek dubious gains at high cost. The Russians have been trying to creep closer to Borova, on the east bank of the Oskil, for months now. So far the Ukrainian brigades in this area - Third Assault among them - have been very active in launching local counterattacks. These have likely prevented the orcs from getting closer to the Oskil. The Borova and ***** fronts, like the Siversk front to the south, are actually possible locations for a surprise Ukrainian counteroffensive at some point. Ukrainian forces along the arc connecting these fronts tend to be aggressive in their defense, fairly often launching local counterattacks to disrupt enemy plans. Techniques developed here appear to have been exported to other sectors.

According to the The Centre for Defence Studies, both this area as well as Kostyantynivka are likely to receive increased Russian attention in the near future. With encircling Pokrovsk - much less actually taking the place - now very unlikely, Moscow may hope to give the impression that the Russians are marching into free urban Donbas ahead of prospective talks. While taking action merely to bolster your bargaining position is nearly always a recipe for disaster in military affairs, that doesn’t mean Putin won’t demand it if he thinks Team Trump will use that to push the narrative that Ukraine is bound to lose.

On the Kostyantynivka front, while the Chasiv Yar sector has been fairly frozen of late, Ukrainian forces still holding out in a block of high rises and in a string of settlements on the outskirts, down in Toretsk local counterattacks have been intensifying. Though Moscow holds most of the ruins, Ukrainian positions on the northern edge are still strong enough to contest the suburbs and several mine tailing hills that rise some eighty meters above the surrounding ground.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Kostyantynivka front, Week 7, 2025 - Ukrainian counterattacks in Toretsk, probable orc plan for spring-summer. Fairly often these days, Ukrainian local counterattacks precede a future Russian advance. It is likely that these are weaker than would otherwise prove the case thanks to Ukraine throwing short jabs during the phase when the enemy is building up troop numbers. As is proving the case in Kursk, orc inability to properly synchronize operations carries serious costs.

The Pokrovsk front is an excellent example of how Russian offensives fail: three months ago, many pundits were writing about the possible fall of Pokrovsk. But by withdrawing closer to its supply base in the region, Ukraine’s defenders here now have the Russians at a tactical disadvantage along the front line. The enemy has to move supplies tens of kilometers across drone-infested roads from Donetsk City, while Ukraine can build up a striking force in Pokrovsk and swiftly dispatch it to launch counterattacks. This has helped the defense hold where it must to avert a crisis - at least so far.

Over the past few weeks, the Russian bridgehead over the Solona river between Kotlyne and Udachne has become vulnerable. Some sharp Ukrainian counterattacks have reportedly pushed the Russians almost out of Kotlyne, and another substantial one that a week ago looked purely tactical in nature liberated the town of Pishchane, threatening the flank of the Russian front. If 59th Assault can manage to reclaim Novovasylivka, the Russians should be forced to beat a hasty retreat of five to six kilometers. A supporting attack further east into Dachenske has also achieved success - it could lead to Ukraine liberating a string of nearby villages along the Solonyi river that acted as a convenient bulwark ahead of the main defense lines near Pokrovsk.

Considering that even as recently as January this Russian assault axis risked reaching a key logistics trunk entering Pokrovsk from the northwest, Ukraine’s timing is notable. It suggests intent: the Russians were lured into a trap. With 155th Mechanized Brigade receiving so much negative press, perhaps its placement in this area was intentional, since Russian officers seem to prioritize attacking formations they perceive as weak. There's no forecast of a bigger Ukrainian counterattack out of Pokrovsk any time soon, but substantial deterioration of the Russian line here could lead to a major turnaround as soon as spring. If Moscow does shift focus to the north, this becomes even more likely.

The southern edge of Donbas remains tough going for Ukrainian troops, with Moscow’s advance unseating the defense around the Andriivka-Ulakly-Kostyantynopil. With the Russians expanding their presence in Andriivka and having broken through to the southern outskirts of Ulakly this week, Drapatyi, who took over command of this area, is actively pulling the line back towards Bahatyr and Oleksiivka.

Southern Theater

Relative to the north and east, Ukraine’s south continues to be on the quieter side. It’s mostly drones and aircraft doing the fighting in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia right now, as neither side has assets to spare for making big moves on the ground at present. In addition, Ukraine’s degradation of Russian logistics is well advanced. Speaking in a strategic sense, the more that Moscow is lulled into a false sense of security on this front, the more devastating a surprise move here will be. One wonders if all the activity in Kursk is not at least in part intended to distract over the long term from a far more dangerous Ukrainian campaign.

Air, Sea, & Strike

Ukrainian dismantling of critical Russian infrastructure continues apace, with oil refineries coming under attack again this week. At least one major facility is reportedly half destroyed, testament to what repeated small drone attacks can accomplish even if most are shot down.

Moscow launches sporadic missile strikes, but so far has held off from the massive raids attempted in the past. With winter coming to a close, and not a particularly cold one in Ukraine at that, going after heating and energy infrastructure isn’t as attractive. One salvo of ballistic missiles was directed at Kyiv, along with drones, and people are often hurt or killed by wreckage or errant enemy weapons in these attacks, but the risk is nothing like what it was two years ago. People in Putin’s empire are very fortunate that Ukraine doesn’t deliberately target civilians like the Allies did in World War Two.

It’s been fairly status quo in the other supporting theaters, winter tough for operations on the water and both sides effectively stalemated when it comes to using crewed jets near the front lines. For the record, those who say that an essential US contribution to European security is the ability to destroy enemy air defenses are repeating cheap propaganda. It is very, very, very difficult to take down a decentralized air defense network sufficient to fly crewed aircraft over enemy territory these days. No, stealth jets are not magic - stealth is a relative thing, and distributed sensors tuned to the right wavelengths can cope.

The air war in Ukraine has demonstrated that most NATO assumptions about how to control the skies are deeply flawed. Cheap drones are almost always better to employ wherever there is real risk of aircrew loss. Crewed jets are vital in supporting roles, but avoid direct contact with the enemy. Likewise, large numbers of simple, mid-tier drones are as important as fancy multi-million dollar missiles. This is proving true both in hitting targets and protecting them. The practical policy implication is a serious reduction in the value of the kinds of assets allies have long relied on the US military to offer.

Aside from media reports suggesting that Ukraine now has at least two dozen Vipers and three to six Mirage 2000s, the biggest news on the aviation front is probably a Wall Street Journal report about the Viper lost with its pilot last year. It offers a crucial piece of evidence that shifts the default assumption about the cause of the loss away from the original official explanation and towards the Patriot friendly fire theory. That is now the most plausible scenario. While some are going to rush out and insist that Ukrainian authorities lied to the public, the truth is more complicated. The Patriot shootdown claim was doubtful for a simple reason called Link-16. It’s the NATO-standard network that allows all the pieces of the military system to talk in real time.

Aside from a malfunction or a mistake in procedure, Link 16 is very good at preventing friendly fire incidents. Trouble is, the Biden Administration made sure it wasn’t activated on the Patriot systems or Vipers sent to Ukraine! And apparently didn’t tell anyone about this, either. So the Viper pilot who died chasing down orc missiles would have been flying into battle not knowing that a critical margin of safety was disabled. A missile lacking the right data can easily jump target lock and go for an F-16 instead of a cruise missile or drone. Something like this happened to a U.S. Navy jet in the Red Sea a few weeks back.

Now, why didn’t Ukraine admit this up front? Because the lack of Link 16 dramatically reduces the effectiveness of Ukrainian Vipers and Patriots alike. That’s the last thing you want the orcs knowing when they’re already being much more cautious simply because Ukraine has Vipers in the sky. Apparently, Ukraine was given a version of the AMRAAM air to air missile with extended range, at least 120km, so it may well be possible to actually ambush glide bomb toting Flankers under the right conditions. But without Link 16, that’s a whole lot harder. It is to be hoped that the Link 16 issue has been resolved. If not, Ukraine is going to have a heck of a time employing the Swedish AWACS aircraft that will hopefully arrive this year. And people wondered why so hard on Team Biden all the time!

The biggest difference with Trump is that the mistakes are all out in the open.

One of the more frustrating aspects of monitoring the Ukraine War these past three-plus years has been the ability of politicians to undermine all prediction by acting against their own best interests. A serious pathology grips American policy circles that leads, more often than not, to disaster. It doesn’t matter which team is in charge: nobody serves the American people.

Leadership & Personnel

Not much new to report on Ukraine’s military reboot - the corps system is going to take time to fully establish. My sense is that it’s already active, and partly responsible for Moscow’s offensive bogging down this winter. The integration of dedicated drone brigades with front line formations is a tricky job, but a number of innovative units are getting it done. Scaling up and out is the challenge - not unlike transforming a start-up into something built to last.

The greater part of the responsibility for Ukraine’s ongoing survival, of course, rests with Ukraine’s soldiers. Weary as they are, as a group they seem set to defy the forecasts of so many wise minds living far away.

It’s definitely good news that Ukrainian authorities are offering some major incentives to under-25s who sign up to fight. Free housing, college education, a good wage - that’s all the least anyone who fought on the front lines in this war is owed. A lot of American veterans benefited from programs like these. Too bad their leaders make such a habit of betraying everything they sacrificed for.

 

[Lazaran]

Chloe “Chicongo” Tzang is FINALLY realizing that they were WRONG about EVERYTHING, and NOW they are spaz posting in a pathetic attempt to cover their ass for supporting traitors like President Musk, DonOld, and MAGAt republicans.



Chloe “Chicongo” Tzang



Also:

We. Told. You. So.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Kropotkinskaya oil pump in Krasnodar oblast got a drone strike, and now it's deader than a dodo's dick! This is a key pumping station on the major international pipeline through southern Russia and disrupts oil flowing from Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk terminal on the Black Sea coast. In the latest attack overnight, seven explosive-packed drones hit a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries Kazakh oil across southern Russia for export via the Black Sea, including to western Europe. The attack hit the Kropotkinskaya pumping station — the pipeline’s largest in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region.

 

[Politruk]

Panic in Kyiv as US president demands higher share of GDP than Germany’s First World War reparations

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.

The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.

President Zelensky himself proposed the idea of giving the US a direct stake in Ukraine’s rare earth elements and critical minerals on a visit to Trump Tower in September, hoping to smooth the way for continued arms deliveries.

 

[colddiesel]

You’re right about DonOld, but WRONG about the withdrawal effort.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan (under unprecedentedly difficult / challenging conditions) was a magnificent achievement by President Biden’s administration and the amazing service members of the U.S. armed forces, and it was the CORRECT decision.

Please educate yourself before commenting.

TIA

Thank you for your concern for my education. I was educated by taking part in two significant military evacuations during my army career. I will just make a couple of points: 1. get the media cleared out first if possible because they always prefer to report the bad bits. Telling them their safety cannot be guaranteed gets rid of most, distractions and discouragement can be arranged for those remaining. 2. Put on a major fear and awe display for the locals immediately before departure; it's best for their own safety for them to be terrified and lock themselves away indoors. 3. Take home everything that can be taken and destroy (spectacularly if possible) absolutely everything left behind. Better still include some of the property/personnel of the insurgents hoping to replace you.

Both evacuations followed these principles; a few hotheads were killed but there was almost no negative reporting/record of events.

It's time you got over Biden Laz The best thing he did was to select a pretty good cabinet, after that he was increasingly pathetic - an old man past his use-by date. Time to look to the future, the more you dwell on the past the more opportunities you give the MAGA trash to snipe at you.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian defence forces strike Ilsky oil refinery and two pumping stations in Russia – Ukraine's General Staff​

Ukraine’s defence forces launched a strike on the Ilsky oil refinery, as well as the Kropotkinskaya and Andreapol oil pumping stations in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai on 17 February. The Kropotkinskaya and Andreapol stations, which were used to transport fuel for Russian occupation forces, were also hit. The General Staff reported that these stations have been put out of action, significantly complicating fuel supply logistics for the Russian army. Veniamin Kondratyev, Governor of Krasnodar Krai, reported an alleged "large-scale drone attack" on the region, but his statement did not mention the Ilsky oil refinery.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/18/7498916/

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russia demands new territorial concessions from Ukraine – ISW​

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, stated during a UN Security Council meeting on 17 February that Ukraine has "irrevocably lost" the territories occupied by Russia and must cede additional parts of oblasts. According to Nebenzya, Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts have allegedly become part of Russia "forever". He also claimed that Ukraine must agree to a revision of its territorial borders as part of peace talks by surrendering areas of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts that are currently under Kyiv's control. Nebenzya also emphasised that future Ukraine should become a neutral state, without membership in military alliances and without the right to join security blocs. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected any possibility of territorial concessions from Russia.

Key Takeaways on 17 February:

• The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in Ukraine’s east and south to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations.
• Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia.
• The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimising Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the 18 February Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia.
• The Russian delegation participating in Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 18 February does not include one of the members of Russian leader Vladimir Putin's innermost circle who had been reported as a likely negotiator.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian energy facilities supplying the Russian military.
• Russian commanders continue to give orders for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the frontline.
• Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a "reduced" military presence in Syria.
• Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to violate the Geneva Convention by conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve in the Russian military.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/18/7498842/

 

[ll74]

Russia demands new territorial concessions from Ukraine – ISW​

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, stated during a UN Security Council meeting on 17 February that Ukraine has "irrevocably lost" the territories occupied by Russia and must cede additional parts of oblasts. According to Nebenzya, Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts have allegedly become part of Russia "forever". He also claimed that Ukraine must agree to a revision of its territorial borders as part of peace talks by surrendering areas of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts that are currently under Kyiv's control. Nebenzya also emphasised that future Ukraine should become a neutral state, without membership in military alliances and without the right to join security blocs. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected any possibility of territorial concessions from Russia.

Key Takeaways on 17 February:

• The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in Ukraine’s east and south to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations.
• Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia.
• The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimising Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the 18 February Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia.
• The Russian delegation participating in Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 18 February does not include one of the members of Russian leader Vladimir Putin's innermost circle who had been reported as a likely negotiator.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian energy facilities supplying the Russian military.
• Russian commanders continue to give orders for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the frontline.
• Unspecified sources told Bloomberg that Russia appears to be nearing a deal with the Syrian interim government to maintain a "reduced" military presence in Syria.
• Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to violate the Geneva Convention by conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve in the Russian military.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/18/7498842/

Not a surprise to see Russia striking a more aggressive tone as the US President and his cronies suck more Putin cock

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Politruk]

Should read "no longer the American goal." We know it was never Biden's. The aid the Biden Administration provided was never enough to allow Ukraine to win, and he cut of aid at critical junctures, ensuring Ukraine suffered unnecessary defeats.

See post #4,457.

 

[ll74]

Russia is demanding new elections in the negotiations.

Ukraine decides that, not Russia. The issue is that elections are tough when you're being bombed...hence the state of emergency declaration. All they would need to do is withdraw and elections would be set.