Is the Republican Party dead?

[snake0067]

The Republican Party and the Democratic Party are twins from birth.

When one dies, so will the other. And I believe that will happen in our lifetime (assuming you're about my age).

They are two ends of a pendulum balancing itself out.

Tell that to the Whig party.

 

[Janlou]

Howard Dean answered your question

Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee

NPR: Another bit of news that caught our eyes this week, the U.S. Census Department released a report projecting that whites will become a minority in the US by the year 2042, that’s about 8 years earlier than expected. How do you think it would affect your approach to building the Democratic Party?

Dean: The fact is that the Democratic party is made up of lots of different people, and we’re all minorities in our party. That’s the way it’s been for a long, long time. We’re the party of opportunity. So the demographic trends favor the Democrats.

If you look at folks of color, even women, they’re more successful in the Democratic Party than they are in the white, uh, excuse me, in the [laughs] Republican Party.

A republican notes:
Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein presented the facts about the declining GOP majority in a National Review cover story in June 1997. [Electing a New People]. They crunched the numbers and predicted that 2008 would be the first year in which the demographic wave would catch up with Republicans. After that the prospects for electing Republican presidents would just get worse. They wrote:

“Demography is destiny in American politics. This point was made brilliantly almost exactly thirty years ago, by Kevin Phillips in The Emerging Republican Majority (1968). In the shadow of the Democrats' long-dominant "Roosevelt coalition," and amid the wreckage and recrimination of the disastrous Goldwater defeat, Phillips boldly predicted a generation of Republican victories based on the persistent but dynamic pattern of ethnic politics. He has been triumphantly vindicated.

“But the Republican hour is rapidly drawing to a close. Not because the "Phillips Coalition" of the West and the South, of the middle class and urban blue-collar voters, is breaking up in the traditional manner. Instead, it is being drowned—as a direct result of the 1965 Immigration Act, which ironically became effective in the year Phillips's book was published. Nine-tenths of the immigrant influx is from groups with significant—sometimes overwhelming—Democratic propensities. After thirty years, their numbers are reaching critical mass. And there is no end in sight.”

 

[Borscht]

There's always Palin and Huckabee. I doubt either could be elected President, but I could see them heading a ticket.

I said earlier that the Republicans' bad luck is that they had an obvious person to run this year, but he just as obviously couldn't run: Jeb Bush.

Demographics, immigration and impending hardship are all likely to make America a lot more socially conservative.

In order to really exploit that, though, the Republicans are going to have to drop the laisez faire extremism, center their economic policy and make a noise about how some corporations are the 'bad guys'

You could say that, by forcing this party to accept the bailout, Bush has thrown a lifeline to the next generation by paving the way for this volte face.

The way I see it, Social Conservatism + Economic Interventionism = Palin 2012.

 

[The_Trouvere]

The Republican'ts got thumped pretty soundly in 1964, but rebounded nicely in 1972.

Five years of black ghetto riots from 1964 to 1968 turned the United States into a Republican country. In 1972 most whites noticed that the riots ended abruptly with the inauguration of President Nixon.

A lot will depend on how President Obama deals with the economic problems, and whether he can end the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in ways that will not be seen as American defeats.

 

[Borscht]

Janlou, I think your quote misses the point.

South Americans, Asians and Eastern Europeans don't have 'Democratic' values.

They have values, many of which are socially conservative.

If the Republicans want to survive (and you bet they do) they'll realign themselves so as to exploit those values.

Take late term abortions.

To an East Coast Democratic Patrician, late term abortions may have no more moral dimension than a haircut. BUT to the Latina Maid democratically cleaning her house, the issue's likely to have the gravest moral implications.

The GOP can adapt or it can die.

 

[The_Trouvere]

Four problems face the GOP:

Demographics, immigration and impending hardship are all likely to make America a lot more socially conservative.

"Today, 'on every single issue, Democrats are doing better with young people - no matter what the issue is'."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/27/MNMIRNDUK.DTL



The political opinions people develop before they are 30 tend to last throughout life.

The GOP faces three additional problems:

First, most Americans are not benefitting from economic growth.

Second, the percentage of Americans who are white is declining.

Third, the percentage of Americans who are secular is increasing.

 

[Borscht]

"Today, 'on every single issue, Democrats are doing better with young people - no matter what the issue is'."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/27/MNMIRNDUK.DTL



The political opinions people develop before they are 30 tend to last throughout life.

The GOP faces three additional problems:

First, most Americans are not benefitting from economic growth.

Second, the percentage of Americans who are white is declining.

Third, the percentage of Americans who are secular is increasing.

First, yeah, exactly. But once Obama gets into the oval office that buck's gonna stop with him. That won't be enough, and the biggest change for the GOPs is to realign itself economically with the 'middle classes' .

Second, again, that can be good for the GOP. If it manages to deal with your first point, then the social conservatism (especially of Hispanics) can give them a real 'in' to non-white groups.

Third, yeah, that could be a problem. However, that's never going to reach European levels, and it depends in what demographic you're looking at.

I'll add four and five:

Four, Obama's promised the Earth. How pissed are people going to be when they find he can't deliver it ?

Five, A smart GOP will work on Democratic fault lines. Who knows, maybe they can get more good Catholic Mexicans in and registered at the same time ?

 

[The_Trouvere]

First, yeah, exactly. But once Obama gets into the oval office that buck's gonna stop with him. That won't be enough, and the biggest change for the GOPs is to realign itself economically with the 'middle classes' .

Unless the GOP can find a way to restore the broadly based economic growth that existed under Democrat and Republican presidents from 1945-73 I do not see how it can "realign itself economically with the middle classes." As gross income becomes increasingly unequal, Republican tax policy is to flatten the income tax. As economic growth increasingly goes to capital, rather than labor, Republican tax policy is to shift the tax load from capital to labor.

Since 1968 the Republican Party has appealed to social conservatism. On many social issues the electorate is becoming more liberal.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Name someone who you think will not only bring the party back to its roots but do so in the same fashion the BHO has done for the Democratic party.

There isn't anyone...but I suspect that the Big Bidness wing of the Republican party will package Jeb Bush for the top slot in the next cycle. Jebby is actually smarter and more ruthless than his dimbulb brother, but he's got two tremendous liabilities: his junkie daughter and his pitviper "let them eat cake" wife.

 

[Borscht]

Unless the GOP can find a way to restore the broadly based economic growth that existed under Democrat and Republican presidents from 1945-73 I do not see how it can "realign itself economically with the middle classes." As gross income becomes increasingly unequal, Republican tax policy is to flatten the income tax. As economic growth increasingly goes to capital, rather than labor, Republican tax policy is to shift the tax load from capital to labor.

Simple.

It can realign itself with the middle classes by reversing its policy so that growth goes to labour.

The GOPs not a religion - if one of its core principles ain't working, it can just abandon it.

Since 1968 the Republican Party has appealed to social conservatism. On many social issues the electorate is becoming more liberal.

The GOP has to strike the balance right.

The question is, are the key parts of the electorate the GOP have to win over more less socially conservative than the Democrats ?

 

[Borscht]

There isn't anyone...but I suspect that the Big Bidness wing of the Republican party will package Jeb Bush for the top slot in the next cycle. Jebby is actually smarter and more ruthless than his dimbulb brother, but he's got two tremendous liabilities: his junkie daughter and his pitviper "let them eat cake" wife.

Well, I'm sure a leader will emerge.

Obama's pretty much come from nowhere, hasn't he ?

 

[maungbandung]