Pandemic?

[DeeZire]

This is perfect! Now I have an excuse for staying locked up inside my house, sitting in front of my computer all day, avoiding human contact. I'm protecting myself from the deadly flu pandemic.

Actually, I thought I heard on the radio that it's a rather mild strain of flu...

 

[NoJo]

and the H5N1 is indeed one of the strains that has the potential to be pandemic.

Soap and water, kids, lots and lots of soap and water. It's the single best preventive for getting exposed.

Swine flu is not H5N1 -- that's bird flu which threatened to mutate to a human spreadable form but has not yet done so, and which I guess was the stimulus for your book. This is mutated H1N1, which looks to me to be a bigger threat, because it looks likely that is can be spread by humans

 

[Vermilion]

This is perfect! Now I have an excuse for staying locked up inside my house, sitting in front of my computer all day, avoiding human contact. I'm protecting myself from the deadly flu pandemic.

Actually, I thought I heard on the radio that it's a rather mild strain of flu...

But harder for our immune systems to recognise, which means that it has longer to attack body tissue such as lungs etc before the body can fight it off.

 

[NoJo]

BTW So-called "Spanish Flu" was first detected in a Kansas barracks -- it's a convenient accident of history that Spain is tainted with the name -- it should really be called "American Flu"

 

[john-the-author]

Swine flu is not H5N1 -- that's bird flu which threatened to mutate to a human spreadable form but has not yet done so, and which I guess was the stimulus for your book. This is mutated H1N1, which looks to me to be a bigger threat, because it looks likely that is can be spread by humans

Ooops, sorry, you're right--I meant to say H1N1.

Actually, no, interestingly enough; this book was because my co-author's a specialist in emergency medicine and wanted to do the book. There are two genetic drifts that occur in flu, one with a cycle of 7 years and one with a cycle of 13 years. There's a slight variance in each cycle, but basically it means that every 91 (7x13) years, you get a flu that's incredibly potent that the body doesn't recognize. We have evidence of this going back to the early 1700s and that's actually what first identified the cycle to people.

We'll know more soon.

 

[john-the-author]

So far, so good.

The mortality is so far something pretty low, which suggests that, even for an H1 flu (H1 & H5 tend to be the most severe), it's not as bad as it could be by a long shot.

(he crosses his fingers)

 

[freshface]

BTW So-called "Spanish Flu" was first detected in a Kansas barracks -- it's a convenient accident of history that Spain is tainted with the name -- it should really be called "American Flu"

Actually, the theory that it got it's start in Kansas was disproved when they were able to sequence the virus. An old theory was that swine and poultry raised at Fort Riley for food permitted the virus to mutate. In fact, it looks like the virus moved directly from avians to humans without a pig component. Also, the disease was present in Asia before it made it to the US. Certainly, the large numbers of soldiers concentrated together and then dispatched out again permitted it really helped it spread.

 

[Selena_Kitt]

They're reporting a possible case in Michigan now.

I think I'm going to keep the kids home at least for the rest of this week. Is that paranoid? Oh well. I have a right to be paranoid at the moment.

 

[shereads]

BTW So-called "Spanish Flu" was first detected in a Kansas barracks -- it's a convenient accident of history that Spain is tainted with the name -- it should really be called "American Flu"

Kansas Barracks Flu, to be fair.

 

[shereads]

They're reporting a possible case in Michigan now.

I think I'm going to keep the kids home at least for the rest of this week. Is that paranoid? Oh well. I have a right to be paranoid at the moment.

It's not paranoid. It's cautious.

 

[freshface]

Kansas Barracks Flu, to be fair.

To be really fair, Asian, since it didn't start in Kansas either.

 

[OhMissScarlett]

They're reporting a possible case in Michigan now.

I think I'm going to keep the kids home at least for the rest of this week. Is that paranoid? Oh well. I have a right to be paranoid at the moment.

I don't think it's too paranoid. My immune system sucks and my kid is always bringing something home from school. If I start hearing of outbreaks around here, I'll definitely keep him home.

 

[freshface]

They're reporting a possible case in Michigan now.

I think I'm going to keep the kids home at least for the rest of this week. Is that paranoid? Oh well. I have a right to be paranoid at the moment.

It's not paranoid, but it is worth remembering that journalists are as bad as anyone else about spreading rumors to sell stories. Combine that with the onslaught of the "worried well" in the health care system and suddenly everyone with a cough and a fever is the harbinger of doom. The CDC website is the best source of information for what's happening in the US.

I would note that the cases so far all include recent travel to Mexico. It'll be interesting to see if we start getting spread in the US via person to person spread. But it's also worth noting that being mentioned in CDC's MMWR is generally a bad thing and keeping the kids home will certainly keep them from getting exposed.

 

[Dragonlipz]

Hopefully this is a mild strain but there's no telling at this point. Stay well everyone. I have to travel during the next several weeks so I'll just be a tad more cautious in airports, etc.......

 

[Selena_Kitt]

But it's also worth noting that being mentioned in CDC's MMWR is generally a bad thing and keeping the kids home will certainly keep them from getting exposed.

MMWR?

 

[Saucy_Sage]

MMWR?

Medical Mutant War Room?

 

[NoJo]

Ooops, sorry, you're right--I meant to say H1N1.

Actually, no, interestingly enough; this book was because my co-author's a specialist in emergency medicine and wanted to do the book. There are two genetic drifts that occur in flu, one with a cycle of 7 years and one with a cycle of 13 years. There's a slight variance in each cycle, but basically it means that every 91 (7x13) years, you get a flu that's incredibly potent that the body doesn't recognize. We have evidence of this going back to the early 1700s and that's actually what first identified the cycle to people.

We'll know more soon.

Fascinating: Damned prime numbers -- so they do the 17-year locust trick, squared

 

[OhMissScarlett]

MMWR?

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

 

[Selena_Kitt]

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Ah. Thanks.

(For the record, I liked Medical Mutant War Room better )

 

[OhMissScarlett]

Ah. Thanks.

(For the record, I liked Medical Mutant War Room better )

I don't see much difference, LOL.

 

[Saucy_Sage]

I don't see much difference, LOL.

It's a question of marketing. Nobody who made it through junior high school wants to read something called a "report."

 

[freshface]

MMWR?

Sorry, it's CDC's weekly report on all the medical cases unusual enough to be shared with the world. It's sort of like when your doctor calls in all of his colleagues to see your cool lesion, just on a national scale.

 

[Selena_Kitt]

Spain just reported Europe's first case.

I'm hearing that most of the deaths have been not of the elderly and very young, but rather in the 20-40 yo range. True?

If it is, it's very strange?

ETA: I found this:

"Swine flu has killed at least 20 people in Mexico, and possibly more than 80. Most of the dead were ages 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past flu pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults."

Really? What's up with that??

 

[Huckleman2000]

Remember how only a few Rs in the Senate voted for the package? Stripping this funding was the price for Susan Collins' vote, Maine (R).
GOP Stripped Flu-Pandemic Preparedness From Stimulus Package

 

[freshface]

Spain just reported Europe's first case.

I'm hearing that most of the deaths have been not of the elderly and very young, but rather in the 20-40 yo range. True?

If it is, it's very strange?

So far, all of the deaths have been in Mexico. The problem there is that most of the surveillance is done in their hospitals on the seriously ill, so no one knows how many total cases they have in the country or what age ranges are affected. We caught it in the US because a couple of the cases were seen in sentinel labs that do genetic testing on the influenza they see. Now that we know there's something unusual happening, everyone is looking for it. One of the realities in Public Health is that when you start looking for something, you tend to find it. If we didn't know something unusual was happening or catch cases in the sentinel labs, these forty cases wouldn't even be a blip on the radar of normal flu.

All of the cases outside of Mexico have been relatively mild and self limiting. Most of the cases have been traced back to travel there, so it really doesn't surprise me that some of the kids who were just there for Spring Break brought it home with them or that the elderly and very young are not traveling there in such large numbers. One of the mysteries with this outbreak so far is why the cases are more serious in Mexico.