Pandemic?

[NoJo]

I vote for hiding.

I vote for alcohol, but that's my answer to everything

 

[Liar]

I imagined the apocalypse as humanity being eaten alive by hordes of zombie pigs.

Partly right, but still dissapointed.

 

[john-the-author]

Here's the site for the latest CDC news. There's been a slight increase in US cases today, but there's an incubation of 1-3 days for this virus, so we probably won't see another significant jump until Thursday or Friday.

We don't know yet if there's a real pandemic threat to this virus or not.

 

[Selena_Kitt]

Here's the site for the latest CDC news. There's been a slight increase in US cases today, but there's an incubation of 1-3 days for this virus, so we probably won't see another significant jump until Thursday or Friday.

We don't know yet if there's a real pandemic threat to this virus or not.

2 California deaths being investigated for swine flu links

I imagine, if anyone in the U.S. dies of this, the stakes are going to change considerably.

 

[john-the-author]

More info

Here's some more information to elaborate on what I said about seeing a spike in a few days:

At least 40 of the cases have fully recovered, which means that they got sick over a week ago. Now that the CDC has issued recommendations for diagnostic testing and is streamlining samples be sent to them (not just a hospital or outpt lab which don't typically looking for H1 N1), detection of cases will be enhanced.

I would expect numbers to rise more significantly over the next 2 weeks (as I'm factoring shipping time and processing turn-around time), as it is far more likely now that folks presenting to medical care will be specifically tested, as opposed to generically or not at all. Also, how the virus will mutate over time - less or more virulent - cannot be predicted. Swine flus tend to be "mixed", meaning that they have been around for a while (vs. avian flus which tend to be unique mutations) and that the immune systems of a given population may partially recognize it and, at least for a time, that may reduce its full effect on the human body.
​

No really good news, but there is still a little cause for hope.

 

[cantdog]

Here's some more information to elaborate on what I said about seeing a spike in a few days:

At least 40 of the cases have fully recovered, which means that they got sick over a week ago. Now that the CDC has issued recommendations for diagnostic testing and is streamlining samples be sent to them (not just a hospital or outpt lab which don't typically looking for H1 N1), detection of cases will be enhanced.

I would expect numbers to rise more significantly over the next 2 weeks (as I'm factoring shipping time and processing turn-around time), as it is far more likely now that folks presenting to medical care will be specifically tested, as opposed to generically or not at all. Also, how the virus will mutate over time - less or more virulent - cannot be predicted. Swine flus tend to be "mixed", meaning that they have been around for a while (vs. avian flus which tend to be unique mutations) and that the immune systems of a given population may partially recognize it and, at least for a time, that may reduce its full effect on the human body.
​

No really good news, but there is still a little cause for hope.

Best case would be to investigate in Mexico and find many many tens of thousands who had the 'flu. Hell, any 'flu kills a certain number of the vulnerable. We don't know yet if this is a killer 'flu or not.

 

[Belegon]

Can't help but be concerned. Two confirmed and six suspected cases in San Diego.

Part of me wants to get on a plane and pick up my kids NOW, not wait until June.

 

[shereads]

Can't help but be concerned. Two confirmed and six suspected cases in San Diego.

Part of me wants to get on a plane and pick up my kids NOW, not wait until June.

A plane might be the worst place to be over the next couple of weeks. And it's not as if you can be certain the flu isn't already incubating at your neighbors' house.

Cantdog is right: there's no way of knowing yet whether this is an exceptionally violent flu. The number of fatalities in Mexico might be a tiny fraction compared to those who had the virus without any extreme symptoms.

 

[shereads]

I imagined the apocalypse as humanity being eaten alive by hordes of zombie pigs.

Partly right, but still dissapointed.

From last night's Colbert Report:

Stephen: "What exactly is swine flu?"

Guest: "It has a swine component, an avian component and a human component."

Stephen: "That's my paella recipe!"

 

[Belegon]

From last night's Colbert Report:

Stephen: "What exactly is swine flu?"

Guest: "It has a swine component, an avian component and a human component."

Stephen: "That's my paella recipe!"

Stewart made a comment about one of his staffers fucking a club sandwich...

...but then they cut to the man in question and he swore it was a meatball sub.

 

[Belegon]

A plane might be the worst place to be over the next couple of weeks. And it's not as if you can be certain the flu isn't already incubating at your neighbors' house.

Cantdog is right: there's no way of knowing yet whether this is an exceptionally violent flu. The number of fatalities in Mexico might be a tiny fraction compared to those who had the virus without any extreme symptoms.

No, I know that. It's not a serious statement, just my dislike of being separated from the kids. It corrupts damn near everything.

 

[john-the-author]

Best case would be to investigate in Mexico and find many many tens of thousands who had the 'flu. Hell, any 'flu kills a certain number of the vulnerable. We don't know yet if this is a killer 'flu or not.

It's true. We really don't. Everyone is hoping for the best. We'll know more in a week or so.

 

[shereads]

No, I know that. It's not a serious statement, just my dislike of being separated from the kids. It corrupts damn near everything.

 

[Katyusha]

No, I know that. It's not a serious statement, just my dislike of being separated from the kids. It corrupts damn near everything.

Semi-serious at least though, I would imagine...you must be concerned about it anyway 'cause you can't be there to watch them and take care of them...and that kind of anxiety and anticipation is so far from the good kind that I can't even think of a way to describe it.

 

[Vermilion]

Can't help but be concerned. Two confirmed and six suspected cases in San Diego.

Part of me wants to get on a plane and pick up my kids NOW, not wait until June.

To be honest you're at more risk than they are judging by the reports I've heard - 25-45 year olds more likely to have a bad reaction to the virus.
<hugs>


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[john-the-author]

Not so good news....

From our writing assistant, who probably got this straight from the source knowing her.

What I know is that WHO, in an emergency meeting this afternoon, has now raised this to a phase 5 situation. This IS the definition of pandemic and WHO is the only authority that can declare a pandemic...​

There is still room for hope, however. For one thing, although we haven't determined for sure that this is a pandemic (that's a Phase 6), we could have a pandemic bug that is nevertheless not particularly dangerous. We could, for example, have a flu bug that makes you very sick with the flu... and that's it. No particular long-term damage, limited mortality, and just a nasty flu. The virus hasn't really shown a high mortality yet, which is a Really Good Thing. We might end up with nothing nastier than high fever, aches and pains, and the trots for four days: horrible, but not particularly deadly.

We still have a lot of room for hope.

 

[Leto Degeneres]

A plane might be the worst place to be over the next couple of weeks. And it's not as if you can be certain the flu isn't already incubating at your neighbors' house.

Cantdog is right: there's no way of knowing yet whether this is an exceptionally violent flu. The number of fatalities in Mexico might be a tiny fraction compared to those who had the virus without any extreme symptoms.

Truly. Even "garden variety" influenza causes enough deaths every year to be noteworthy, and in light of those numbers, if you can accept those numbers then these new numbers aren't enough to spark excess worrying on my part.

Here's an article by the CDC on influenza fatalities. It's dated January 7, 2003, and starts out like this:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today released data indicating that the estimated number of people who die from influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) per year in the United States is substantially higher than previous estimates. The data are published in the January 8 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

Using new and improved statistical models, CDC scientists estimate that an average of 36,000 people (up from 20,000 in previous estimates) die from influenza-related complications each year in the United States. In addition, about 11,000 people die per year from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a virus that causes upper and lower respiratory tract infections primarily in young children and older adults. The study demonstrates that most deaths caused by RSV occur in the elderly.

“We’ve known for sometime that influenza and RSV have a profound impact on public health,” said CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding. “However, these data indicate that the magnitude of the problem is larger than we once thought.”

(Media Relations: Press Release)

I, for one, had no idea that the death toll from influenza was so high.

 

[Trinique_Fire]

Well, here we go. Nine probable cases in Illinois. There was a breaking news press conference on all the local stations this afternoon. There's supposed to be gowning and masking in all the hospitals now.

This is fucking fantastic.

 

[OhMissScarlett]

Well, here we go. Nine probable cases in Illinois. There was a breaking news press conference on all the local stations this afternoon. There's supposed to be gowning and masking in all the hospitals now.

This is fucking fantastic.

It's pretty scary. I've been stocking up on food and stuff just in case.

 

[john-the-author]

It's pretty scary. I've been stocking up on food and stuff just in case.

I intend to do much the same when I get back from this conference next week. yeah, it seems all paranoid, but no, it can't hurt and it's not like I'm not going to be able to use all of this stuff eventually. But staples and canned goods and so on might be a nice thing to have.

Besides which, I grew up with a farm mom who stockpiled all kinds of things on shelves in the basement, like canned tomato products, flour, sugar, and things like that. There was something really reassuring about going down and getting cans of stuff off the shelves.

 

[amicus]

Idegeneres:

"...I, for one, had no idea that the death toll from influenza was so high...."

~~~

Nor did I. One can assume that the very old and very young are perhaps most subject to influenza as immune systems are weak in both.

Heard the same facts you related on the news the other day and had to confirm it, as you did. Did not really want to post the information, as coming from me, most would suspect the motive. So, thank you for putting it out.

Amicus

 

[shereads]

Well, here we go. Nine probable cases in Illinois. There was a breaking news press conference on all the local stations this afternoon. There's supposed to be gowning and masking in all the hospitals now.

This is fucking fantastic.

Wash your hands all the time, carry one of those little vials of germ-killing gel that only paranoid people used to carry, and if anybody coughs or sneezes near you without covering his face, screech like a banshee and call him an idiot.

It was reported just over the border in South Carolina today, so I guess it'll be in Georgia within a day or two. I worry about my mom because she lives at an assisted living facility where everyone dines as a group. There's always somebody with a cough or cold, but nobody wants to eat alone. Mealtimes are the big social event of their day. I gave her some sanitizing hand gel today, and she dropped it into her purse without a second look. "That stuff makes my hands dry."



Good luck to us.

 

[john-the-author]

I find it interesting that there are people going "Naw, it's all bullshit." I just got this from a colleague in DC:

As for pandemic - I think it's a bunch of hooey. Over 36K in the US die from the "regular" flu each season - this just has an odd name and is out of season. (Not to mention we had the swine flu in 1976; did we learn nothing?)​

No, apparently, some of us didn't. The fact that this is appearing out of season is significant, the fact that it's an H1 type, which hits 20-45 yos, the fact that it's an N1, which has a pathophysiology of affecting the lungs severely and with 50% mortality, and the fact that it's statistically about time for the 91-year genetic drift and genetic shift cycles to overlap... no, apparently some of us have learned fuck-all from this. Oy veh....

If didn't mention before, flu bugs like cold weather because the coating on the virus changes and it's easier for it to penetrate. IIRC, above about 60 degrees F, the viral coat gets soft and tacky and it's harder for it to get a foothold. We're now in warm weather (and Mexico City in late April? gimme a break!) and we have a flu that seems to not be worrying about the weather at all and is highly infectious outside of flu season? That's a bad thing. It doesn't speak well of what may happen when it gets to be cold and this flu is able to work unimpeded.

We still don't know if this is going to be The Big Flu, but I am concerned that the WHO, which has been planning for this about this time, seems to think it may be. I'd be glad if it isn't, but I can't say yet for sure that it's not.

 

[Vermilion]

I'm gonna go stock up on food anyway. if nothing else I'm hardly going to feel like food shopping if I get the 'flu, swine or otherwise, so I may as well do it now and freeze as much stuff as I can

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[geronimo_appleby]

bloody vigilantes:

http://www.kosovo.net/news/archive/2004/April_09/files/1093523587_12jot4wltt0_svinja_obilic.jpg