Pandemic?

[freshface]

ETA: I found this:

"Swine flu has killed at least 20 people in Mexico, and possibly more than 80. Most of the dead were ages 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past flu pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults."

Really? What's up with that??

I just noticed your ETA. The answer this time is still "no one knows." In the 1918 pandemic, it's speculated that young and healthy adults had overachieving immune systems. It wasn't the virus itself that killed them, but the build up of inflammatory cells and substances in the lungs as the immune system responded to the virus. That's supported by some of the 1918 victims dying just a few hours after they first showed symptoms. The very old and very young did not have such vigorous immune systems, so they didn't get as sick. There's also speculation that the dead victims were more likely to have TB than the survivors, something supported by the sharp drop in TB rates in 1919. The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 had the highest death rates in the very young and the elderly. All pandemics share the trait that the virus is new and novel to humans, so the population doesn't have any immunity built up to it. That feature, and the apparent person-to-person transmission pattern are what make this current outbreak so concerning.

 

[Huckleman2000]

Here is a worldwide map of the confirmed outbreaks

 

[john-the-author]

Okay, that's a statistic that's NOT good and it sent a chill through me.

One of the odd things about really potent flus is that the people who are MOST likely to die are the 20-40 yo's, the people in really good health. Normally, flu nails people who aren't in such good health, have compromised immune systems, and so on, and that's the way it works. But the really bad ones hit your system, blaze away, and your system responds hard and fast. Really hard, really fast. Your immune system goes into overdrive, your system floods with cytokines, and all of a sudden your body becomes a battlefield.

Unfortunately, if you're in really good health, your body doesn't know when to quit. And your cytokines just keep getting produced and your system goes into overdrive producing cytokines and waking up more immune responses and producing cytokines and waking up more immune responses... and you can die from a cytokine storm. If you don't have a great immune system, the cytokines aren't produced as quickly and you may have a chance to fight things off before your body chokes itself, but the 20-40 yo's, the healthy ones, can die of lung or organ failure like >that<.

This isn't good news. It's one of the potential hallmarks of a really dangerous flu.

Damn.

Spain just reported Europe's first case.

I'm hearing that most of the deaths have been not of the elderly and very young, but rather in the 20-40 yo range. True?

If it is, it's very strange?

ETA: I found this:

"Swine flu has killed at least 20 people in Mexico, and possibly more than 80. Most of the dead were ages 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past flu pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults."

Really? What's up with that??

 

[NoJo]

Here is a worldwide map of the confirmed outbreaks

Note that its in countries that have highly developed medical services -- basically there's better detection in those places.

 

[kendo1]

I'm growing a pink, curly tail.

Should I be worried?

 

[NoJo]

I'm growing a pink, curly tail.

Should I be worried?

depends. Is it at the back, or the front?

 

[shereads]

I'm hearing that most of the deaths have been not of the elderly and very young, but rather in the 20-40 yo range. True?

That was also the case with the 1918 pandemic. The way it was explained is that the disease wasn't the killer, but the immune response. People in the prime of life were hit hardest because their immune systems were more responsive.

Scary the way it's mirroring that flu.

Spain again with the reporting. Cut it out, Spain.

 

[shereads]

I'm growing a pink, curly tail.

Should I be worried?

Depends. What's the market price of truffles?

 

[shereads]

Okay, that's a statistic that's NOT good and it sent a chill through me.

The first symptom!

 

[kendo1]

Depends. What's the market price of truffles?

No idea, but I'm getting good at finding them.

 

[amicus]

I kept away from this thread because I have been through at least two of these possible 'pandemics' before and the same editorial pandemonium of warnings and preventative measures as then, are happening now.

I do know that in the first one I experienced, the USAF demanded I get a flu shot and sure as hell, I caught the flu. That is a personal experience that perhaps prejudiced my opinion of mass immunization.

I also voiced mild objection to the inevitable percentage, small that it may be, of required infant immunizations, that cause tragic consequences.

http://www.vaclib.org/basic/flu_fact_sheet.htm

"...According to Dr. J. Seal, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: “Any and all flu vaccines are capable of causing Guillain-Barre.” In the Swine flu vaccine disaster of 1976, over 500 people in the U.S. were paralyzed by the disease, with 30 dying after being injected with the vaccine, which is concocted from material taken from influenza victims and then cultivated on mashed chick embryos. Other problems associated with flu shots are paralysis, memory loss, itchy rashes, and chronic fatigue...."

That is just an edited excerpt; the full article is at the link.

The latest news including the Spanish case, lists 6 in Canada.

Not a pleasant feeling, as expressed by many, just waiting and watching and wondering.

amicus...

 

[Huckleman2000]

Okay, that's a statistic that's NOT good and it sent a chill through me.

One of the odd things about really potent flus is that the people who are MOST likely to die are the 20-40 yo's, the people in really good health. Normally, flu nails people who aren't in such good health, have compromised immune systems, and so on, and that's the way it works. But the really bad ones hit your system, blaze away, and your system responds hard and fast. Really hard, really fast. Your immune system goes into overdrive, your system floods with cytokines, and all of a sudden your body becomes a battlefield.

Unfortunately, if you're in really good health, your body doesn't know when to quit. And your cytokines just keep getting produced and your system goes into overdrive producing cytokines and waking up more immune responses and producing cytokines and waking up more immune responses... and you can die from a cytokine storm. If you don't have a great immune system, the cytokines aren't produced as quickly and you may have a chance to fight things off before your body chokes itself, but the 20-40 yo's, the healthy ones, can die of lung or organ failure like >that<.

This isn't good news. It's one of the potential hallmarks of a really dangerous flu.

Damn.

So, the fact that I'm kinda old and out of shape is a GOOD thing. YES!

 

[oggbashan]

The two cases confirmed in Scotland are recovering from a mild infection.

Unconfirmed rumours of the treatment they have received in the isolation ward included incessant bagpipe music and a diet of haggis and malt whisky.

The pig part of the flu infection turned up its tail and ran squealing away suspecting enhanced interrogation techniques being applied to porcine neighbours.

The Big Bad Wolf denies that torture was involved (He would, wouldn't he!).

Og

 

[R. Richard]

I have read about the 1917-1918 flu pandemic. Most of those who died were in isolated farm houses. The entire family would come down with really violent flu and there was no way to get help. When the wood for the stove ran out, there was no heat and death followed swiftly.

 

[amicus]

As Oggbashan has deigned to politicize this thread,(although with good humor) one might consider the US border with Mexico where thousands come into America each day, illegally, and that ain't so funny. Some schools in Texas have already been closed.

?

Amicus

 

[Selena_Kitt]

That's it. Kids are staying home. I don't care what the school is gonna say about it. I wish I could make hubby stay home too. I wish we had a bomb shelter. I'm probably being crazy-paranoid. But I don't care. I hate this.

 

[xssve]

I have read about the 1917-1918 flu pandemic. Most of those who died were in isolated farm houses. The entire family would come down with really violent flu and there was no way to get help. When the wood for the stove ran out, there was no heat and death followed swiftly.

I have a half assed hypothesis, that communities and populations that are more immobile and isolated are going to be the most vulnerable - the very global transportation network that causes these things to spread more rapidly, may spread less milder forms around first, so that by the time the virulent one hits, some immunity has already been built up in your denser population areas. No?

 

[amicus]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_swine_flu_mexico

By NIKO PRICE, Associated Press Writer Niko Price, Associated Press Writer – 4 mins ago

MEXICO CITY –

Two weeks after the first known swine flu death, Mexico still hasn't given medicine to the families of the dead. It hasn't determined where the outbreak began or how it spread. And while the government urges anyone who feels sick to go to hospitals, feverish people complain ambulance workers are scared to pick them up.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_mexico_earthquake

By PAUL HAVEN, Associated Press Writer Paul Haven, Associated Press Writer – 7 mins ago

MEXICO CITY

– A strong earthquake struck central Mexico on Monday, swaying tall buildings in the capital and rattling nerves in a city already tense from a swine flu outbreak suspected of killing as many as 149 people nationwide

~~~

Yeah, I know, you read the news also....but, hell, folks, I spent a lifetime reading news to people over the radio....old habits die hard...



ami

 

[john-the-author]

I'm growing a pink, curly tail.

Should I be worried?

Yes. You're going to have a helluva time getting pants fitted.

 

[john-the-author]

No idea, but I'm getting good at finding them.

Wipe off that ring of dirt from around your nose (aka "a Dirty Francois").

 

[john-the-author]

So, the fact that I'm kinda old and out of shape is a GOOD thing. YES!

You know, I've thought that this may be one very small blessing of being diabetic.

 

[NoJo]

I have read about the 1917-1918 flu pandemic. Most of those who died were in isolated farm houses. The entire family would come down with really violent flu and there was no way to get help. When the wood for the stove ran out, there was no heat and death followed swiftly.

The most likely reason for it, people now believe, is that by the time the main outbreak occurred, people in sparsely populated areas were less likely to have an immunity from the initial, mild outbreak months earlier. City people had been more exposed to it

 

[OhMissScarlett]

The most likely reason for it, people now believe, is that by the time the main outbreak occurred, people in sparsely populated areas were less likely to have an immunity from the initial, mild outbreak months earlier. City people had been more exposed to it

Interesting. So, hiding from everything right now may not be the best idea if it mutates eventually.

 

[shereads]

Interesting. So, hiding from everything right now may not be the best idea if it mutates eventually.

I vote for hiding.

 

[OhMissScarlett]

I vote for hiding.

I kinda feel like that too. I have a secluded cabin in the woods and I'm keeping my gas tank full.