old_prof
Older than that
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2015
- Posts
- 3,356
AI may eventually do amazing things. I don't deny that. The current generation of AI has already run its course, in my view and the view of most of the AI researchers I respect. There's not much more that straight LLM's will be able to do. Emily Bender, Timnit Gebru and Margaret Mitchell (not the one who wrote Gone With The Wind) had them pegged five years ago as "Stochastic Parrots". They're an entertaining parlor trick, but will never move past that. I'd point you to read some of Gary Marcus's work if you want to understand what they lack.Computers went from one machine taking up a six or eight-story building to micro-processors in your phone in 70ish years. But the further they advanced, the faster one generation became the next happened.
New technologies will come and I do believe that we will eventually see the need for many professions, including programming, eliminated.
Historically, each wave comes about a decade after the previous, but there is no real reason for that and it's not at all like clockwork. If I had to place a bet, I think we're probably two or three waves away from an AI that can actually do almost all (maybe all) human activities better than we can, including sw dev and the arts.
Two or three waves is probably thirty years give or take. After I'm going to worry about it.
The era of exponential growth of computing power has also come to a likely end (actually did about a decade ago). Some forms of computing, including computer graphics and neural nets/LLM's, can ride the mega core wave a little farther.
Probably my most popular course, and the one I most liked teaching, was a history of computing technology course. I could talk about this stuff for hours, but I will bore everyone to death doing so.