BrightShinyGirl
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This isn’t a midterm election.
The way Trump is fading I’m not sure he’ll make it to November.
Super Tuesday
- Thread starter BrightShinyGirl
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The way Trump is fading I’m not sure he’ll make it to November.
BabyBoomer50s
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Interesting result in Virginia, a state that Biden won handily in 2020 by a 10.3% margin, the best performance by a Democratic candidate since FDR. Yesterday Trump got 436K votes, Biden got only 307K votes.
ll74
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The question is always where independent voters will go in the general. Will the 280, 000 votes that went to other candidates go towards Trump or towards Biden?
In particular the 240,000 Haley votes will be interesting.
Last edited:
adrina
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Rove says Trump Team ‘ought to be concerned’ after Super Tuesday
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...am-ought-to-be-concerned-after-super-tuesday/
RobDownSouth
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Virtually all "undecided" Republican votes (most from candidates who dropped out) went to Haley.
Haley was widely considered a "protest vote" by Republicans who have "Trump fatigue"
I seriously doubt they will vote for Trump in the General election. At best they'll stay home, at worst they'll vote for Biden.
Trump is extremely vulnerable in Virginia in 2024
It goes without saying that if Trump does NOT capture Virginia in 2024 there is no viable path to the White House.
KeithD
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That's surprising. Joe has a sixty-year history of getting to the little places and talking with the little people.
I declare that the right-wing smear campaign on Joe Biden has constructed someone looking more like Donald Trump rather than the Joe Biden who has been in public view for well over half a century.
ll74
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The early polling seemed to reflect your sentiment here, though in the past month or so, I've seen things shift towards Trump.
I'm skeptical that those polls are worthwhile and expect things to start shifting now that the general is set.
Polling by this time next month I think will give a more accurate read.
BabyBoomer50s
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Right, and in VA crossover voting is very easy. You can be a registered Republican and ask for a Democratic ballot or vice versa. I’m sure many of those Haley voters will vote for Biden but the question is how many? As a Haley voter myself, I don’t plan to vote for Biden.
By the same token, Trump got 78% in CA. But in CA, you can only vote in the GOP primary if you’re a registered Republican. So those are all true GOP voters.
KeithD
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Well, yes, he needs to be concerned, first, because there continues to be no evidence that he possibly can win a national plurality (so has to do all his figuring on the basis of the Electoral College vote) and because by rights he should be in prison by November and by chance he might be dead (from one too many McD hamburgers, from the backlash of his own crazy supporters, or from that Iranian hit man who is being hunted in Florida and thereabouts).
ll74
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I don't think there are as many crossover votes as people seem to declare. I think Virginia is going to be close and slightly left.
I'll be following polling more closely going forward.
Btw- Thank you for your continued contributions to my poll thread. I think you get the spirit of that thread better than most and I appreciate that.
RobDownSouth
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The polls were all over the place on Super Tuesday.
ONE poll was exactly on the nose: Tennessee
By contrast, Virginia was the biggest "Trump underperform" yesterday. Polls expected him to absorb all of the Vivek and DeSantis detrius. Haley was expected to grab 17% Trump 66%.....instead Haley picked up almost every single non-Trump vote and ended up with 34% and Trump got his 66%.
Trump cannot win Virginia with 2/3 of the Republican vote. He cannot win Virginia with 3/4 of the Republican vote. He is in trouble.
KeithD
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Virginia is increasingly urban and educated, with much of the growing urban areas being bedroom communities for federal government agencies. Most federal employees are going to vote for bigger/better/higher benefits government. I live in the congressional district with the highest proportion of redneck voters, one that they had to gerrymander the hell out of, creating a district going from the top to the bottom of the state, determined by trying (and thus far succeeding) in negating the area around the University of Virginia (with that total reactionary Bob Good as the representative). The upshot of this, though, is that the rednecks are losing control over the other congressional districts in the state.
RobDownSouth
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Even Fox New is talking about the "lack of unity" (aka "Trump fatigue") on Super Tuesday.
They're dogwhistling "Knock off the more extreme positions Donald!" but extreme positions gets Trump the biggest cheers and he thrives on adulation so THAT ain't gonna happen
They're dogwhistling "Knock off the more extreme positions Donald!" but extreme positions gets Trump the biggest cheers and he thrives on adulation so THAT ain't gonna happen
Rightguide
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Trump Triumphed except in Communist Vermont.
BrightShinyGirl
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It's telling to two places where Trump has lost are on opposite sides of the racial spectrum. Vermont is lily-white, while D.C. is an African-American stronghold. The nation is united in rejecting Donald Trump.
Rightguide
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She's lost a couple of donors so probably lacked the funds to shovel fanciful sand against the incoming tide.
adrina
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Rightguide
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As usual, you come off as a delusional nut. Those who helped her over the line in Vermont were independents and crossover Democrats. Any conservative Republican would lose in DC so that is a nothing burger that won't affect the outcome in November unless the elites living there decide to conspire to interfere further in the election. Here's what you need to worry about:
Biden has over 350,000 problems ahead of Trump rematch
ByEden Villalovas
https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php...5555/biden-has-350000-problems-trump-rematch/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/2905555/biden-has-350000-problems-trump-rematch/#
March 6, 2024 11:22 am
As President Joe Biden cruised through the Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, his campaign faced a mounting challenger: a significant number of “uncommitted” votes in protest of his handling of the Israel–Hamas war.
Several Super Tuesday states included “uncommitted” options on their ballots, gathering about 254,017 votes as of Wednesday morning, according to Associated Press totals. Voters took substantial portions of the totals in North Carolina, where Biden was the sole candidate on the Democratic ballot, gathering 88,021 votes, or 12.7%, compared to the president’s 606,302 votes, or 87.3%, with 97% of the votes counted, per the AP. “Uncommitted” voters turned out in Massachusetts, too, totaling 9.4% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 82.8%, with 85% of the votes counted.
Biden bested Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) in the congressman’s home state, earning 70.6% of the vote with 99% of the votes counted. Phillips, who gathered 7.8% as of Wednesday morning, came in third place behind “uncommitted” which had 18.9% of the support, or 45,942 votes. Alabama, Colorado, Tennessee, and Iowa all had “uncommitted” options on their ballots that fared better than Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
That is all in addition to the more than 100,000 Michiganders, 13.2% of Democratic primary voters, who selected “uncommitted” last week. Listen to Michigan, a leading anti-Biden group, urged Democratic voters to select that option instead of staying home or casting their ballot for a third-party candidate. Dissatisfied Michigan voters are expected to earn two delegates to represent them at the Democratic National Convention this summer in Chicago and at least one as a result of Minnesota’s efforts on Tuesday, according to Listen to Michigan. Combined with Super Tuesday’s results, more than 354,000 votes have been cast for “uncommitted” instead of Biden.
More here: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/2905555/biden-has-350000-problems-trump-rematch/
You also need to worry about Donald Trump pulling over 20% of the black male vote as well as large percentages of the Latino vote.
Rightguide
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Here's one little tidbit:
On Super Tuesday 2024, the Democratic primary voters cast their ballots in several states. Let’s take a look at the percentage of Democratic voters who supported Donald Trump during this pivotal day:
- Alabama: 0% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Arkansas: 0% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- California: Approximately 14% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Colorado: Approximately 25% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Iowa: Approximately 13% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Massachusetts: Approximately 26% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Maine: Approximately 14% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Minnesota: Approximately 48% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- North Carolina: Approximately 25% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Oklahoma: Approximately 36% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Tennessee: Approximately 16% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Texas: Approximately 20% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Utah: Approximately 38% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Virginia: Approximately 19% of Democratic voters supported Trump.
- Vermont: Approximately 15% of Democratic voters supported Trump1.
BabyBoomer50s
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I agree completely with Rove’s assessment. It was a good night for Trump but now he needs to unite the party and redirect the attacks on his GOP competitors and focus his attacks on Biden.
Some Democrats seem to be seeking a ray of hope from Super Tuesday by arguing that Trump “underperformed” against the primary polls. There are some big problems with that logic.
1. Trump’s opponents in the GOP primaries have not included Joe Biden! They’ve been mainly focused on Trump v Nikki Haley and have been all over the map. That’s understandable because The Haley dynamic has been very fluid as the pre-Super Tuesday results were tricking in. There were questions of will she stay or will she go? And what role crossover voters might have kept things bouncing around.
2. Unlike national polls, few reputable polls are taken for primary races at the individual state level and they can vary widely. For example in Vermont (won by Haley), there were only two polls taken this year. One in January had Trump at 47%, another in February had him at 61%. That’s quite a swing. He finished with 45.9%. In California, there were five polls taken this year. The weighted average per FiveThirtyEight was 75.6%. He finished with 78.6%.
3. We already can predict the outcome in states like Vermont where Trump “underperformed by 1 point or 15 points depending on which state poll you pick. We know how California will go in November despite Trump’s “over performance” in that state. If party primary poll are relevant to general election at all, it’s the swing states that merit consideration.
4. There continue to be tons of ongoing national polls and swing state polls that attempt to assess a Biden-Trump match up. Those are the two candidates that matter as far as the general election goes. Trump has held a small lead of around 2 points give or take a point in the RCP average for many months. He’s also been leading in most swing state polls. The last three polls out this weekend by Emerson, NYT, and WSJ are especially bad for Biden because he’s generally moving in the wrong direction on his approval on key issues.
Some Democrats seem to be seeking a ray of hope from Super Tuesday by arguing that Trump “underperformed” against the primary polls. There are some big problems with that logic.
1. Trump’s opponents in the GOP primaries have not included Joe Biden! They’ve been mainly focused on Trump v Nikki Haley and have been all over the map. That’s understandable because The Haley dynamic has been very fluid as the pre-Super Tuesday results were tricking in. There were questions of will she stay or will she go? And what role crossover voters might have kept things bouncing around.
2. Unlike national polls, few reputable polls are taken for primary races at the individual state level and they can vary widely. For example in Vermont (won by Haley), there were only two polls taken this year. One in January had Trump at 47%, another in February had him at 61%. That’s quite a swing. He finished with 45.9%. In California, there were five polls taken this year. The weighted average per FiveThirtyEight was 75.6%. He finished with 78.6%.
3. We already can predict the outcome in states like Vermont where Trump “underperformed by 1 point or 15 points depending on which state poll you pick. We know how California will go in November despite Trump’s “over performance” in that state. If party primary poll are relevant to general election at all, it’s the swing states that merit consideration.
4. There continue to be tons of ongoing national polls and swing state polls that attempt to assess a Biden-Trump match up. Those are the two candidates that matter as far as the general election goes. Trump has held a small lead of around 2 points give or take a point in the RCP average for many months. He’s also been leading in most swing state polls. The last three polls out this weekend by Emerson, NYT, and WSJ are especially bad for Biden because he’s generally moving in the wrong direction on his approval on key issues.
ll74
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Neat... Now do Haley
Rightguide
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Here's another little tidbit from Super Tuesday:
On Super Tuesday 2024, the percentage of Black voters who supported Donald Trump varied across different states. Let’s delve into the data:
Nevertheless those are big nontraditional fractions of the black vote going to Trump.
On Super Tuesday 2024, the percentage of Black voters who supported Donald Trump varied across different states. Let’s delve into the data:
- Alabama: 0% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Arkansas: 0% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- California: Approximately 14% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Colorado: Approximately 25% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Iowa: Approximately 13% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Massachusetts: Approximately 26% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Maine: Approximately 14% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Minnesota: Approximately 48% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- North Carolina: Approximately 25% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Oklahoma: Approximately 36% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Tennessee: Approximately 16% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Texas: Approximately 20% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Utah: Approximately 38% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Virginia: Approximately 19% of Black voters supported Trump1.
- Vermont: Approximately 15% of Black voters supported Trump1.
Learn more
1washingtonpost.com3msnbc.com4pbs.org5usatoday.com6usatoday.comNevertheless those are big nontraditional fractions of the black vote going to Trump.
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