Ukraine Endgame?

Really? Own up to it. Some of us "get" implication and understand the history of animus towards Jared being given a prominent position.


Post #149
Jared is a paid advisor to the Saudis. That is a fact. He could be Korean and it still would be a fact. And I certainly never stated anything hateful here. But sure...ascribe what works for ya there 👍
 
Well, that's the billion dollar question, isn't it. Ukraine jealousy guard information about their losses, and those are mounting, no doubt, but if they were as catastrophic as the worst claims paint, it wouldn't be possible to suppress.
In today's media environment, we can find dozens of instances of news and information suppression, especially in the US where the media is married to the Democrat Party and its political interests. We see this here every day in the White House Briefing Room and in the Pentagon Briefing room, and the leading news outlets in the US.
A significant disconnect in information spaces is between "loses" understood as deaths, and "casualties" numbers that include wounded, including full recovery wounds. The total number of casualties between sides may well be if not similar, then comparable, but I still believe Ukrainian casualties are less than Russian overall.
I think the more significant question is, how much of the available manpower pool in Ukraine has been decimated on the battlefield? The other question is, can the mobilization and training pipeline in Ukraine maintain the combat effectiveness of their maneuver elements on the ground in a timely fashion? I have real doubts about their ability to do this over time. In ten years of 24/7 combat in Vietnam, the US lost 58,000 dead. The Ukrainians lost this much in less than a year. I don't see how they can sustain those kinds of losses going forward, politically or militarily.

Russians on the other hand practice no field medicine. None. Allegedly their updated field manuals forbid attacking soldiers to even try to evacuate wounded, supposedly trusting that specialist medical teams would come to get them. Such teams... there's not much evidence they exist. There's a lot of speculation of course, and little hard data, but it's possible Russians have as few as 1.2-1.5 wounded per death. Yes, it's medieval.

The Russians stopped the German advance in WWII despite having lost almost 5,000,000 casualties to the German Army against a million or more German casualties. I don't think the Russians ever cared about their own people or their medical care on the battlefield. They just wore the Germans down to a frazzle in a trade of blood for blood. The Germans had less to sacrifice on the field despite having fielded the largest land invasion force in history.
Ukraine is not short of manpower, not yet anyhow. They still struggle to arm and outfit them. Russia wasn't short of mobiks either for the winter, but how depleted they really are coming out of their big attack drive (at one point there were nine separate efforts underway) is disputed. And yes, both sides are continuing mobilization, despite claims of the contrary.

There are stories of Ukrainians dragging unwilling males off the streets and pressing them into service much like the Russians are said to be doing. The Ukrainians did close their borders to all military-aged males, so I think they recognize the differences in the availability of manpower as a resource for continued military activity. There isn't a lot of news coming out of Ukraine from regular people on the ground in Ukraine being disseminated here in the US.
Bahmut is defended by comparably small forces at any given time, on constant rotation of smaller split elements of many different units. Access to the city isn't ideal but isn't disrupted either. What's the logic of it all is hard to say, but... in gaming terms it's like they're farming experience. Don't know can it work like that in real life.
Speaking of Bakhmut, the Mayor there recently said only 4000 civilians are left in the city. My research shows about 60+% speak Russian and that Ukrainian soldiers in the ground are being betrayed by pro-Russian citizens there. I wonder if that is true. Macgregor says he;s being told that another 200,000 Russian troops are being funneled into the surrounding area and being held for a possible offensive in Bakhmut when the terrain is dry in a couple of months. The city itself has for all practical purposes been destroyed but it does represent “a gateway” to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as control road networks that lead to railheads that might be important to a Russian advance in the Northeast of Ukraine.
Artillery shell hunger is now mutual. Both sides are conserving ammunition. But it's true that at it's worst Russians fired 20x the volume. Ukrainians fire less, but are reportedly far more efficient and accurate. Now Russians can't maintain their volume either, and the advantage had shrunk, but Russians probably fire more on total volume still.

"Russian production of artillery shells is rapidly expanding, with estimates of up to 50,000 rounds being fired each day and Ukraine firing up to 6,000-7,000 artillery shells daily.0 The Pentagon is investing billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls caused by the war in Ukraine and to build up stockpiles for future conflicts.2 US production of NATO standard 155mm artillery shells currently stands at 14.1"
https://imgs.search.brave.com/XzBVBS4kYNj7nYrN6MUd4HDLIM2t2m3wixSPSbU4EvY/rs:fit:32:32:1/g:ce/aHR0cDovL2Zhdmlj/b25zLnNlYXJjaC5i/cmF2ZS5jb20vaWNv/bnMvNmEyM2UyZmM5/ZTBkNTVjZGIyY2Y5/NzIzNjcwM2EyMzM3/ODIzMzEwZWNmNzhi/ZDNjZTIwNTU5YTU4/ZjNmYWE2NC93d3cu/cGJzLm9yZy8pbs.org
https://imgs.search.brave.com/ELC_6_ctYoIkjPn10jmYpl3RAaEUjJh2SX6RLWWjwZ4/rs:fit:32:32:1/g:ce/aHR0cDovL2Zhdmlj/b25zLnNlYXJjaC5i/cmF2ZS5jb20vaWNv/bnMvNTcxMzRlYTkx/MjMwYjAyZGNiZmI4/NTFkY2MyZWJmMzgy/ZGViMWYwZmZjYmQ0/ODM3NjM0NzQ3M2Ux/MjY2ZGRjZi9ldXJh/c2lhbnRpbWVzLmNv/bS8eurasiantimes.com
https://imgs.search.brave.com/QojRukNhANGMB07cpjolIw83smuIdLYOtKfWBt5_-5s/rs:fit:32:32:1/g:ce/aHR0cDovL2Zhdmlj/b25zLnNlYXJjaC5i/cmF2ZS5jb20vaWNv/bnMvMGFlZWRkYmVh/YWFhZmFjYjM4MWYy/NTQzZmExMTIwN2Nm/NGJmZjgwYTRhYjI5/OTliM2JkYmI2MWY0/M2RlOGFlMi93d3cu/bnl0aW1lcy5jb20vnytimes.com

The US has almost expended its supply of 155mm rounds. MacGregor says his sources in the Pentagon tell him we would be out of those rounds in a couple of weeks of war with a peer rival.
 
ITs not reality however. Its a myth. If we are STRICTLY talking about news organizations, which we shouldn't. We should be talking Hollywood as well. You'd have a point on social issues. They are down with "CRT", LGBT, at least pay lip service to raising taxes, pay and working conditions but they do not really push. The media doesn't say shit about guns.

Both parties and the media are generally pro-war, they both shill that shit about the American Dream being a reality when that shit died sometime between Reagan and Clinton. The media doesn't call out corrupt politicians save for the absolute worst offenders which almost exclusively means they went after a social issue.

Its just that conservatives have a massive victim complex because treating "others" as equals is a step back for them.
 
ITs not reality however. Its a myth. If we are STRICTLY talking about news organizations, which we shouldn't. We should be talking Hollywood as well. You'd have a point on social issues. They are down with "CRT", LGBT, at least pay lip service to raising taxes, pay and working conditions but they do not really push. The media doesn't say shit about guns.

Both parties and the media are generally pro-war, they both shill that shit about the American Dream being a reality when that shit died sometime between Reagan and Clinton. The media doesn't call out corrupt politicians save for the absolute worst offenders which almost exclusively means they went after a social issue.

Its just that conservatives have a massive victim complex because treating "others" as equals is a step back for them.
They talk about gun violence every day if a white male is a shooter, but some never report a story where a black male shooter is involved. For instance whatever happened to the black mass shooter in CA. Try to find out whatever happened to Dandrae Martin, identified as the shooter in the 2022 Sacramento mass shooting. six people killed and he's charged with assault with a deadly weapon and illegal firearm possession. is he still in jail? Who knows?

Neoconservatives (former Democrats) are generally pro-war. Many conservatives, except for Rinos, are not unless the nation has been harmed or Americans are killed. Most conservatives have figured out the war in Ukraine to be endless and potentially a precursor to Nuclear war with Russia. Mostly because they recognize that Joe Biden is compromised and unfit mentally to command the United States military. They recognize as well that a coalition of pronouns, skin colors, and racial preferences is not enough of a deterrent to impress our enemies who are now moving against American interests with impunity.
 
They do no such thing if the shooter is white or black, its a matter of mass shooting and black people don't do mass shootings. That's just not how reality functions in the US. Plenty of things are about race but that ain't it. Not to mention the media does cover Chicago Crime and utterly ignores how much more dangerous the South is compared other regions of the United States because that doesn't fit the narrative.

RINOs were all about Iraq and honestly I'm genuinely shocked Trump didn't get us into with Iran. ITs not like his party isn't literally saying we should start bombing Mexico and don't give me the bullshit about cartels as if cartels exist in areas with no or few civillians or even wear uniforms that allow you to identify them. We learned that over the last twenty fucking years with insurgents. And Obama was arguably worse than Bush (though better than Trump and not as good as Biden) on that front however drones were in their infancy during the Bush era so its kinda like saying that Bill Clinton sent more emails out than Bush and Reagan combined. Its true but its convienently ignoring facts.

Yes a rainbow coalition and pronouns will make us a better military and its nothing new. Hell I'm half convinced that Republicans are about to tank the economy so we can get our recruiting numbers up. Post people do not join out of patriotism, they do it out a need for money either for college or just because we've stigmatized fast food and retail so much that risking death is better than flipping burgers.
 
ITs not reality however. Its a myth. If we are STRICTLY talking about news organizations, which we shouldn't. We should be talking Hollywood as well. You'd have a point on social issues. They are down with "CRT", LGBT, at least pay lip service to raising taxes, pay and working conditions but they do not really push. The media doesn't say shit about guns.

Both parties and the media are generally pro-war, they both shill that shit about the American Dream being a reality when that shit died sometime between Reagan and Clinton. The media doesn't call out corrupt politicians save for the absolute worst offenders which almost exclusively means they went after a social issue.

Its just that conservatives have a massive victim complex because treating "others" as equals is a step back for them.
No, it's just that you have a massive blind spot when it comes to any reality that threatens to expose the flaws in your belief system.
 
Your link doesn't define mass shooting, maybe find a better source.
Neither do you when you use the phrase.:rolleyes: Accept the facts, those being that black males account for 25% of those shootings and that you were embarrassingly incorrect.
 
Neither do you when you use the phrase.:rolleyes: Accept the facts, those being that black males account for 25% of those shootings and that you were embarrassingly incorrect.

I'm not incorrect because your citation doesn't define a mass shooting and the numbers seem really, really off for either of the generally accepted definitions.
 
I'm not incorrect because your citation doesn't define a mass shooting and the numbers seem really, really off for either of the generally accepted definitions.
Your link doesn't define mass shooting, maybe find a better source.
You are, as always, incorrect. The current Congressioinal Reasearch Service national standard for the definition of a “mass shooting” is defined "as a multiple homicide incident in which four or more victims are murdered with firearms, within one event."
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44126.pdf


Read it for yourself for a change.
 
The more I read the more I tend to agree with RG. Ukraine will be toast by mid-summer if not sooner.

Our military and political leadership are lying to us.
 
There isn't a lot of reason to think our military or political leadership are lying to us. The reality is nobody expected Ukraine to last this long, now there is a warrant out for Putin which means he can't leave Russia but if he doesn't go to South Africa he'll look weak to people who are clearly getting tired of his shit. Basically Putin has three months to wrap this up for your prediction to come true.

I was shocked when this went past last summer however, that's absurd.
 
There isn't a lot of reason to think our military or political leadership are lying to us. The reality is nobody expected Ukraine to last this long, now there is a warrant out for Putin which means he can't leave Russia but if he doesn't go to South Africa he'll look weak to people who are clearly getting tired of his shit. Basically Putin has three months to wrap this up for your prediction to come true.

I was shocked when this went past last summer however, that's absurd.
Unless you care to listen to them and not the facts on the ground. 'Everything's coming up roses" according to Biden, Austin, and Miley. All of them are full of shit. Ukraine is done, NATO is busy depleting stocks to the point that they'll be hard pressed to defend themselves.
 
So what is happening in Ukraine? All of a sudden it drops off the news and we just sent them another 28 billion. Colonel MacGreggor and Lt. Col Tony Shaffer are saying the Ukrainian army is in the verge of being annihilated by the Russians and noting a battle a couple of days ago where a Ukrainian brigade was destroyed on open ground in a period of 60 seconds through superior ISR over the filed of battlefield.
 
There's his buddy Macgregor again. The sole expert that agrees with ReichGad
 
That's one other person. There aren't many more.
There are, and there's a reason why the Democrat news media isn't talking about it. Remember that the same Democrat media and their beloved Neo-Cons are the same people who lied to you about Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and just recently Afghanistan.
 
There are, and there's a reason why the Democrat news media isn't talking about it. Remember that the same Democrat media and their beloved Neo-Cons are the same people who lied to you about Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and just recently Afghanistan.
That was much more prevalent on "Republican" news in the grand sense of the word but please keep telling lies and hoping nobody has ever done even basic studies.
 
There are, and there's a reason why the Democrat news media isn't talking about it. Remember that the same Democrat media and their beloved Neo-Cons are the same people who lied to you about Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and just recently Afghanistan.
Yes, I know you are delusional and find MacGregor a good source of confirmation bias. 👍
 
Still no end game in sight. An eventful indefinite cease fire is still the most likely scenario. How many months or years it takes to reach that wobbly state is anyone’s guess.
 
Still no end game in sight. An eventful indefinite cease fire is still the most likely scenario. How many months or years it takes to reach that wobbly state is anyone’s guess.
The only person who will lead things that way is Putin. He wont give way.....
 
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