Rightguide
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Go find Tim. He has your Tampons.
Ukraine Endgame?
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MajorRewrite
Iffy
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You failed to use the lunacy font: go FinD TrUMp. HE is COnFusEd aBouT a HELicoPTEr.
ChloeTzang
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Yes. It may not be Medvedev but it's more than likely to be a hard Russian Nationalist. I have no idea who will emerge from the morass, but at this point I suspect Putin is close to a goner - the way he was looking on that Kursk media release, he's well aware that things are going belly up, and in Russia, it's the Tzar that will carry the can.
He's for the chop. That 1917 moment is coming and when the Russian military crumbles, it's going to be a rout.
Rightguide
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That's something only you need.
Buffalogurl
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Chioe, if you don't mind, I have a thought on the kursk operation, if, and I mean if the Russians are unable to stop the advance of the ukies, being how the real estate is technically Russian, I'm really curious what would happen if the Russians used tactical nukes on their own land to stop the Ukrainians? In my humble opinion I believe there ain't shit the rest of the world could legally do if the Russians do used tactical nukes in their own country....
Here's the basis of my thinking, the Israelis are exterminating the Palestinians and and nothing is happening the Africans are exterminating each other and it barely raises any eyebrows not counting what's going on in China..... just curious thoughts.......
MajorRewrite
Iffy
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Eagerly anticipating the use of nuclear weapons is fucking weird.
subdudeme13
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Since most of the fallout would be over Moscow....................?
ChloeTzang
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Personally, I think Putin would find it rather challenging to justify to Russians using tactical nukes on what is Russian territory, inhabited by Russians, altho in reality much of Kursk Oblast and Bilhorod to for that matter are traditionally Ukrainian. I think that would be a decision that would get him taken out. This war was for a greater Russia after all, and to bring Russians back within the welcoming embrace of Mother Russia, not to nuke them.
Besides, Russia is a little like us in that Putin alone cannot release nukes, and if he tries, I suspect he'll be swallowing a lead pill pretty quickly. That look on his face on that media clip, he's far up shit creek and he knows it. However the Kursk offensive works out, and I suspect there's strategies within strategies at work here - and Syrskyi is very strategic thinking - it's been a kick in the balls for Putin. Russia may be making minor gains in the Donbas, but strategically they are on the back foot here.
They have already had to pull units from Kharkiv in a hurry to act as a blocking force and the result of that is ZSU recapturing territory in Kharkiv and pushing back. This and the new ZSU push into Bilhorod may result in these units having to be pulled back to block THOSE forces. Russia is also pulling units from all across the front. Some of these are being targeted as they arrive in Kursk Oblast - at least one battalion was wiped out in one hit and there have been more.
Moving these units weakens the front elsewhere, presenting the ZSU with other opportunities and I see any number of options opening up here. Russians are on the back foot in Kursk - ZSU can keep them off balance and struggling to form a front - Russia is incapable of maneuver warfare on the defensive, whereas ZSU has trained for this and this is where they have an advantage. The front in the north presemts them with opportunities - the main rail link that supplies units in Karkhiv and the Donbas runs thru where and ZSU is now sitting either on it or in artillery range. Russia relies on railway logistics and ZSU is now stamping on their throat.
ZSU can throw more units in and encircle Russian army group in Kharkiv. Classic move and a disaster for Russia. Ukraine can assault across the Dnipro once Russian forces their are weakened, and once across they can retake Kherson and do a Thunder Run into Crimea or towards Mariupol, or both. Can they do all of those at once? Probably not but maybe they can, and the Russians present a tough crust, but as in Kursk. once the ZSU is through that crust......
Right now, Syrskyi is well inside Russias OODA loop and THAT is exactly where you want to be.
As for tactical nukes, ZSU units are too dispersed and small for tactical nukes to be any real use.
ChloeTzang
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I wouldn't say eagerly. You should always think of these things. I would, anyhow. But the response is simple.
Dirty bombs.
Ukraine has nuclear reactors. They don't need nukes. Simply build dirty bombs and if Russia uses tactical nukes, retaliate with dirty bombs. The mere threat should be enough.
Damn but you ladies are taking a deep dive here. Multiple levels being peeled back.
First of all BuffaloG is basically postulating the same thesis that China floated years ago re. Taiwan. "If we want to nuke our sovereign territory, well that's out business and not in violation of any international law." Forgetting any ethical considerations, they're right. And that is an issue that cannot be ignored. The question is, "How insecure is Putin in making a decision regarding their use?"
Chloe, your tactical assesment is well thought out and I suspect you had some help there. But I hasten to remind you that nukes are not just weapons of distruction, they are weapons of area denial. An interesting aspect of nuclear weapons is that the lower the yield, the dirtier the weapon. Tactically they can be used to stop an advancement, or deny withdrawal. Virtually all of the low yield devices were designed at Los Alamos.
Further, it is more useful to look at the logistical situation. Quite frankly I'm astounded that the Russian seem not to have learned a damn thing since WWII. On the other hand the Ukrainians are totally dependent on third party good will. It's all ugly.
First of all BuffaloG is basically postulating the same thesis that China floated years ago re. Taiwan. "If we want to nuke our sovereign territory, well that's out business and not in violation of any international law." Forgetting any ethical considerations, they're right. And that is an issue that cannot be ignored. The question is, "How insecure is Putin in making a decision regarding their use?"
Chloe, your tactical assesment is well thought out and I suspect you had some help there. But I hasten to remind you that nukes are not just weapons of distruction, they are weapons of area denial. An interesting aspect of nuclear weapons is that the lower the yield, the dirtier the weapon. Tactically they can be used to stop an advancement, or deny withdrawal. Virtually all of the low yield devices were designed at Los Alamos.
Further, it is more useful to look at the logistical situation. Quite frankly I'm astounded that the Russian seem not to have learned a damn thing since WWII. On the other hand the Ukrainians are totally dependent on third party good will. It's all ugly.
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