Why is everything labeled as AI now????? I can't even post a story anymore.

[old_prof]

Everything is asymptotic until the next breakthrough. Then exponential again.
What is also exponential is the lag between breakthroughs. It used to be 1000 years, then 100, then 10.

Major breakthroughs have emerged every ten to fifteen years in AI and that has actually gotten worse since the 50's.

I do teach a course on the history of technology. I would love to go over how I see the cycles running if you want. There was an amazing run of technologies introduced from 1870's-1890's, at least as transformation to society as what has happened thus far in this century.

Exponentials don't last. They're pipe dreams pushed by snake oil salesmen.

I believe that AI will eventually do amazing things, but probably not in my lifetime. Maybe in yours?

 

[old_prof]

Company X may not be worth as much as Y paid for it, but that is not a Ponzi scheme. It simply labels the buyers as fools.

The value to the last round of buyers was selling to the next round, whose value is selling it to the next round, until the music stops and anyone not yet cashed out loses. That is a ponzi scheme and that is the value proposition being sold right now. If you don't get that, you're the sucker being sold to.

 

[metropolinational]

I believe that AI will eventually do amazing things, but probably not in my lifetime. Maybe in yours?

AI is already doing amazing things. I don't understand why people are bothering to deny that.

None of this has anything to do with profits. The dot com bubble did not slow down the way in which it changed our society forever. Same with the personal computing bubble of 1985. Same with the social media bubble in 2014. Those cycles are just the sheep catching up with the technology and trying to make money by riding emotional waves.

AI can already write better fiction than 90% of humans, maybe 95%. We don't need a technological breakthrough for that to happen, just process and implementation.

 

[metropolinational]

until the music stops

Amazing scene. Jeremy Irons stole the whole movie with the boardroom scene. In the latest chapter of Botched (the story I'm writing), my MC quotes a line from that scene.

 

[Writer61]

The value to the last round of buyers was selling to the next round, whose value is selling it to the next round, until the music stops and anyone not yet cashed out loses. That is a ponzi scheme and that is the value proposition being sold right now. If you don't get that, you're the sucker being sold to.

A company is worth its future profits.

Buyers may have overvalued those, but I doubt any bought on the current market cap.

 

[old_prof]

AI is already doing amazing things. I don't understand why people are bothering to deny that.

I can't believe the number of people who delude themselves into calling the half assed shit that AI produces "amazing". it's only amazing until you look carefully. It's a shiny surface on a plle of poop.

It does a reasonable job (from well below human level to slightly better than typical human) for 80-90% of the task. The last 10-20% is really hard. This has been a problem for AI for 60 years and the current generation of technology did not really change that. Yes, they have covered some new tasks that were not possible to do the easy part previously, most notably the generative AI. It can be leveraged effectively by experts to do the easy part for them, but it is so easy for humans to get lazy and try to let it do the entire job, which turns out poorly.

 

[old_prof]

A company is worth its future profits.

Buyers may have overvalued those, but I doubt any bought on the current market cap.

As an example, several tech companies gave OpenAI billions to light on fire so they could sell future versions of ChatGPT (and other things) that were promised to be vastly better (an outright lie that was known when the promise was made).

Those tech companies are selling that future to major non-tech corporations (buy in now why you can) to recoup the billions that have just been wasted. That's a scam and each level has understood it when they sold to the next level. It's all marketing hype vaporware that will never produce what is promised. And they know it.

 

[Writer61]

As an example, several tech companies gave OpenAI billions to light on fire so they could sell future versions of ChatGPT (and other things) that were promised to be vastly better (an outright lie that was known when the promise was made).

Those tech companies are selling that future to major non-tech corporations (buy in now why you can) to recoup the billions that have just been wasted. That's a scam and each level has understood it when they sold to the next level. It's all marketing hype vaporware that will never produce what is promised. And they know it.

This is an example of buyers overvaluing a future revenue stream.

More fool them, but it is not a Ponzi scheme.

 

[Britva415]

A company is worth its future profits.

Buyers may have overvalued those, but I doubt any bought on the current market cap.

People are obviously buying. That - and no other way at all - is how share price, which is synonymous with market cap, gets set.

We know what happens to prices in the no-buyers (read: no demand) situation. They don't stay high.

 

[metropolinational]

It can be leveraged effectively by experts to do the easy part for them, but it is so easy for humans to get lazy and try to let it do the entire job, which turns out poorly.

we are saying the same thing. process and implementation. but AI moral panic is not going to help.

 

[loic333]

Non, ce n'était pas le cas. Voir son commentaire ci-dessus.

Si ! mon travail ést en français.. il ya juste que j'utilise comme beaucoup d'entre vous non anglophone, Google traduction pour m'exprimer en anglais, mais pas à cet instant dans le cas présent... attention à vos certitudes @Écrivain61

 

[ElectricBlue]

AI can already write better fiction than 90% of humans, maybe 95%. We don't need a technological breakthrough for that to happen, just process and implementation.

Really? You'd better come with examples, if you're going to make a statement like that.

 

[YmaOHyd]

Really? You'd better come with examples, if you're going to make a statement like that.

Lena McDonald, Rania Faris and KC Crowne have been caught with AI prompts embedded in their novels, and Cassie Alexander is open about using AI to write one of her recent monster-smuts.



That's from Lena McDonald's Darkhallow Academy #2, a book that was released with AI residue showing that someone had asked ChatGPT or another service to rewrite at least one section of it in the style of J. Bree, a contemporary paranormal romance writer. I have no idea if that section up there -- that's the first page of the book -- was written with AI, but at least some portion of the novel was created with generative AI.

I think, yeah, that up there is about as good as a decent-enough Lit story. It's better than the majority of what gets released here every day.

 

[ElectricBlue]

I think, yeah, that up there is about as good as a decent-enough Lit story. It's better than the majority of what gets released here every day.

It illustrates the incoherent junk of AI generated content, is what it does, and I'm astonished people can't see that. That sample reeks of AI. It's the same as people reckoning AI art is astonishing, but fail to see the claws, or count the fingers.

You and I have different definitions of "good", I think.